FIFA Club World Cup - starts Monday June 14
I have been asked a lot about process for betting on these kinds of tournaments. Long post ahead...
I use a combination of modeling (fancy word for objective analysis) and tactical and matchup analysis (subjective). Objective analysis won't work alone in these kinds of tournaments - because objectively comparing teams from different continents that never play similar competition is close to impossible.
The subjective (tactical) analysis comes from my knowledge of the sport, and most importantly lineups that are announced about 1 hour before gametime. In most sports, predicting tactics and gameplan before the event is difficult. You can think that an NFL team should run because the opposing defense is terrible against the run - but until kickoff you really aren't sure. In soccer - the lineups are not only important to assess skill level on the pitch - but they are also the roadmap to the tactics. You know how a team will play based on how they lineup - at least at the beginning.
The interesting thing is that betting lines move on players in or out of lineups - but very little based on reading in to the implied tactics and strategy. I have found success taking advantage of slow moving lines when you can clearly see for example that a team is going to defend first and counterattack. Matchups play a clear role also. For instance - in the UCL final when it was confirmed that Bruno Mendes was lined up against Lamal - who was torching everyone this season on the wing - it was clear Lamal was going to have it tougher than most days. He was totally ineffective because Mendes didn't need any help and freed up the second man that usually needs to double team Lamal.
The objective analysis is nuanced - but soccer is a unique sport in that all players have an assigned value. Players are bought and sold - not traded - on a worldwide scale. So how do bookmakers (and you) come to a fair line on a matchup between teams from different continents?
You are 80% of the way there if you simply use the teams cumulative squad value. http://Transfermarkt.com is a great place to start. In the attached pic - you can see the values - along with some of the opening day betting lines. The values follow the betting lines pretty closely. So the books are at the same disadvantage we all are, and are mostly using squad value as a compass to set a line. Throw in some other stats to the values like XG, shots, big chance conversion rates etc - and you are on your way to a good objective model. It is not rocket science.
So the challenge to us as handicappers is to use a combination of the above to beat lines that by nature should be softer than most league events like NFL, or MLB. This is what I attribute my historical success in these tournaments to - and why I see them as tremendous opportunities.
Happy to discuss. GL.
enjoy the matches
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