We continue the Florida swing this coming week with the players championship at TPC Sawgrass. This course reminds me a lot of pga National which we just saw a couple weeks ago. This is a par 72 measuring out at a modest 7,275 yards with yet again a ton of water hazards and bunkering serving as the primary defenses along with some pretty thick rough.
These fairways are pretty narrow as well ranking 12th/44 courses on tour in that regard. This along with the fact that it’s not a super long course will result in a lot of guys keeping driver in the bag to avoid disaster off the tee. This will lead me to look for guys that are accurate off the tee, but also have shown success on these positional, less than driver courses.
Approach game per usual will be the biggest predictor of success at this course. This is the 5th hardest course on tour to gain strokes approaching the green. This is a product of the thick rough around here, small greens, coastal winds, and the plentiful water hazards that defend the greens. 18 of the last 20 winners at Sawgrass were ranked in the top 35 for strokes gained on approach in the year leading up to this event. A stat that really highlights the importance of being in form on approach to win this event. The majority of approaches will come from the 100-150 yard range but also a fair share of long irons from 200+ yards. I wouldn’t personally waste time betting anybody that’s been struggling with the irons of late.
This is also a very difficult course to gain strokes around the green. With the small green complexes that are very fast and do feature undulations it can make scrambling a little tricky. Greens will be missed so having a quality short game is something I’d like to see for players I’m backing. This is another week I won’t look too much into putting, but these are poa trivialis surfaces so I’ll take a look at guys that have had success on these surfaces along with fast greens.
I think there are some great comp courses to look at one of which I already mentioned in pga National, but also harbour town and sedgefield. All positional courses that often require you to take less club off the tee and spike on approach. The ideal player here has had some success on these courses, is accurate off the tee, is an in form overall approach player, and has an adequate around the green game. Sand save% and par 5 scoring are some ancillary stats I’ll be taking a look at as well. Will post in here once i’ve taken a stance on some guys 
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