We’re 3 short weeks away from the best golf week of the year. Stoked for Augusta, just getting this thread up to start some conversation.
Who are our early leans? Who’s got the best shot on the LIV side? Who is great value as odds stand right now?
I’m not taking any strong stances this early as I want to see how guys perform leading up to masters week, but one that really has my attention is Rahm at 15-1. I don’t believe there is enough separation to make Rahm triple the odds of sheffler and double the odds of Rory, not to mention he loves Augusta with 4 top 10s and an additional win in 8 starts. That number feels like value to me.
Anyways, the masters deep dive has begun and I’ll occasionally post some thoughts in here throughout the next couple weeks
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
We’re 3 short weeks away from the best golf week of the year. Stoked for Augusta, just getting this thread up to start some conversation.
Who are our early leans? Who’s got the best shot on the LIV side? Who is great value as odds stand right now?
I’m not taking any strong stances this early as I want to see how guys perform leading up to masters week, but one that really has my attention is Rahm at 15-1. I don’t believe there is enough separation to make Rahm triple the odds of sheffler and double the odds of Rory, not to mention he loves Augusta with 4 top 10s and an additional win in 8 starts. That number feels like value to me.
Anyways, the masters deep dive has begun and I’ll occasionally post some thoughts in here throughout the next couple weeks
Betting Rahm at 15-1 is like throwing pennies into an ocean, and then diving in months later and trying to find them. Of course I might have told you that a couple of years ago when he did end up winning.
It just seems even less likely this year. I will admit I'm not a Rahm guy, and have no read on his playing ability basically ever.
But good luck if you decide to try him.
Betting Rahm at 15-1 is like throwing pennies into an ocean, and then diving in months later and trying to find them. Of course I might have told you that a couple of years ago when he did end up winning.
It just seems even less likely this year. I will admit I'm not a Rahm guy, and have no read on his playing ability basically ever.
You bring back some good memories as I hit a 3 leg parlay that year, KC winning the super bowl, Georgia winning the national championship and Rahm winning the masters. Georgia -130, Kc+ 450 and Rahm +1100 paid It paid out +11576 for $100 I got $ 11576.00 back. I was drinking heavily back then and refused a huge cash out offer of like 7 grand. I don't drink anymore and never bet Rahm since.
@Professor1258
You bring back some good memories as I hit a 3 leg parlay that year, KC winning the super bowl, Georgia winning the national championship and Rahm winning the masters. Georgia -130, Kc+ 450 and Rahm +1100 paid It paid out +11576 for $100 I got $ 11576.00 back. I was drinking heavily back then and refused a huge cash out offer of like 7 grand. I don't drink anymore and never bet Rahm since.
Took a little time off to recharge Mr. Rollz, and this is my first stop since coming back. The azaleas are blooming here in south Alabama which means only one thing - it is time to be thinking about Augusta! I'll be checking back soon. Hope you have a great week.
Took a little time off to recharge Mr. Rollz, and this is my first stop since coming back. The azaleas are blooming here in south Alabama which means only one thing - it is time to be thinking about Augusta! I'll be checking back soon. Hope you have a great week.
Betting Rahm at 15-1 is like throwing pennies into an ocean, and then diving in months later and trying to find them. Of course I might have told you that a couple of years ago when he did end up winning. It just seems even less likely this year. I will admit I'm not a Rahm guy, and have no read on his playing ability basically ever. But good luck if you decide to try him.
Im also not a Rahm guy, I just think he’s a little underpriced compared to his peers at the top of the board at 15-1. He’s a top 5 machine on LIV, for whatever that is worth lol. Like his fit at Augusta, should be motivated after a disappointing finish last year, less noise around the move to LIV, etc.
Im not saying he’s going to win or that I’m betting him yet just feel that’s where the value is at the top of the board
Quote Originally Posted by Professor1258:
Betting Rahm at 15-1 is like throwing pennies into an ocean, and then diving in months later and trying to find them. Of course I might have told you that a couple of years ago when he did end up winning. It just seems even less likely this year. I will admit I'm not a Rahm guy, and have no read on his playing ability basically ever. But good luck if you decide to try him.
Im also not a Rahm guy, I just think he’s a little underpriced compared to his peers at the top of the board at 15-1. He’s a top 5 machine on LIV, for whatever that is worth lol. Like his fit at Augusta, should be motivated after a disappointing finish last year, less noise around the move to LIV, etc.
Im not saying he’s going to win or that I’m betting him yet just feel that’s where the value is at the top of the board
Took a little time off to recharge Mr. Rollz, and this is my first stop since coming back. The azaleas are blooming here in south Alabama which means only one thing - it is time to be thinking about Augusta! I'll be checking back soon. Hope you have a great week.
What’s up brotha! Hope all is well. Thanks for stopping by man, feel free to drop any thoughts you have on the masters in here
Quote Originally Posted by Skydog1842:
Took a little time off to recharge Mr. Rollz, and this is my first stop since coming back. The azaleas are blooming here in south Alabama which means only one thing - it is time to be thinking about Augusta! I'll be checking back soon. Hope you have a great week.
What’s up brotha! Hope all is well. Thanks for stopping by man, feel free to drop any thoughts you have on the masters in here
I went ahead and locked 1 in as I don’t think this number will last. Russell Henley has quietly been a great major performer these past 2 years, with 3 top 10s including a 4th at the masters in ‘23. I just don’t think he should be 70-1 here. Truly believe he is among the 10 best players on tour right now and has the all around game to win here.
Russell Henley (70-1)
I went ahead and locked 1 in as I don’t think this number will last. Russell Henley has quietly been a great major performer these past 2 years, with 3 top 10s including a 4th at the masters in ‘23. I just don’t think he should be 70-1 here. Truly believe he is among the 10 best players on tour right now and has the all around game to win here.
Crazy that it’s already masters week, I’m fired up I’m sure most of us are very familiar with Augusta and how it plays but I’ll still run through a course breakdown. I will preface this by saying you really need every part of your game firing at this golf course. It’s a very demanding test off the tee and on approach, but equally demanding around the greens where we consistently see winners here with soft hands around these lightning fast undulating green surfaces. A balanced game works very well here and that’s why you see the best players in the world roaming the top of the leaderboard year after year. A couple masters trends that I found interesting… 11 of the past 13 master winners had a win in their past 6 starts and 12 of the last 13 winners had a top 15 finish in the prior year majors. These trends highlight the importance of current form and recent success in majors heading into Augusta.
Just to run through some details, Augusta is a par 72 measuring out at a hefty 7,555 yds (7th longest course on tour). It is consistently one of the toughest tests we see due to the pure length, elevation changes, difficult short grass areas around the green, and speedy undulating green surfaces that require precision on approach for birdie looks.
Off the tee at Augusta skews heavily toward longer hitters. This is due to the pure length of this golf course, but also the fact that these are the widest fairways that we see on the pga tour. Along the wide fairways is non-penile, short rough which all lends itself to a bombs away approach off the tee that gives a clear edge to the big hitters. 14 of the last 15 masters winners ranked in the top 50 for driving distance. I definitely prefer these longer players who will have shorter approaches into these tricky green complexes, and will be able to reach the crucial par 5s in 2.
This is a demanding test on approach that requires precision to hit the correct quadrants of these undulating greens to find birdie looks. The approach buckets are pretty consistent here, with about 75% of shots coming from 150+ yds. Players will be hitting a lot of long irons into these firm greens which are very difficult to hold, which is another reason distance off the tee is key allowing for shorter clubs with higher trajectories into these greens making it easier to hold approaches. Every winner of the masters in the last 9 years has ranked 6th or better on approach for the tournament. I’ll be dialing in on in form approach players with solid long term long iron play.
Maybe the biggest key for me on this golf course is around the green play. This is yet another golf course with a low greens in regulation %, increasing value on good around the green players. We consistently see top notch around the green players have a ton of success here in Patrick Reed, Scottie sheffler, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, the list goes on.. Augusta presents some very difficult chip shots on tight lies around the green into extremely fast undulating surfaces that will test a wide variety of different types of shots. Guys will have to get up and down for par often here, not to mention the degree of difficulty of these shots is much higher than your average pga tour stop. This is why so many great around the green players rise up the leaderboard every year at this event. To me quality around the green play is essential this week and will serve as a pre-requisite as I dive into my outright selections.
Crazy that it’s already masters week, I’m fired up I’m sure most of us are very familiar with Augusta and how it plays but I’ll still run through a course breakdown. I will preface this by saying you really need every part of your game firing at this golf course. It’s a very demanding test off the tee and on approach, but equally demanding around the greens where we consistently see winners here with soft hands around these lightning fast undulating green surfaces. A balanced game works very well here and that’s why you see the best players in the world roaming the top of the leaderboard year after year. A couple masters trends that I found interesting… 11 of the past 13 master winners had a win in their past 6 starts and 12 of the last 13 winners had a top 15 finish in the prior year majors. These trends highlight the importance of current form and recent success in majors heading into Augusta.
Just to run through some details, Augusta is a par 72 measuring out at a hefty 7,555 yds (7th longest course on tour). It is consistently one of the toughest tests we see due to the pure length, elevation changes, difficult short grass areas around the green, and speedy undulating green surfaces that require precision on approach for birdie looks.
Off the tee at Augusta skews heavily toward longer hitters. This is due to the pure length of this golf course, but also the fact that these are the widest fairways that we see on the pga tour. Along the wide fairways is non-penile, short rough which all lends itself to a bombs away approach off the tee that gives a clear edge to the big hitters. 14 of the last 15 masters winners ranked in the top 50 for driving distance. I definitely prefer these longer players who will have shorter approaches into these tricky green complexes, and will be able to reach the crucial par 5s in 2.
This is a demanding test on approach that requires precision to hit the correct quadrants of these undulating greens to find birdie looks. The approach buckets are pretty consistent here, with about 75% of shots coming from 150+ yds. Players will be hitting a lot of long irons into these firm greens which are very difficult to hold, which is another reason distance off the tee is key allowing for shorter clubs with higher trajectories into these greens making it easier to hold approaches. Every winner of the masters in the last 9 years has ranked 6th or better on approach for the tournament. I’ll be dialing in on in form approach players with solid long term long iron play.
Maybe the biggest key for me on this golf course is around the green play. This is yet another golf course with a low greens in regulation %, increasing value on good around the green players. We consistently see top notch around the green players have a ton of success here in Patrick Reed, Scottie sheffler, Cam Smith, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, the list goes on.. Augusta presents some very difficult chip shots on tight lies around the green into extremely fast undulating surfaces that will test a wide variety of different types of shots. Guys will have to get up and down for par often here, not to mention the degree of difficulty of these shots is much higher than your average pga tour stop. This is why so many great around the green players rise up the leaderboard every year at this event. To me quality around the green play is essential this week and will serve as a pre-requisite as I dive into my outright selections.
If you read my posts you probably know by now that I generally don’t value putting very much given how much variance is involved in it. This will also be the case for me this week with how difficult Augusta is, not requiring playing to make a bunch of birdie putts to have success. I’ll take a look at guys who putt well on fast greens, but otherwise I’ll be heavily weighing tee to green stats.
The ideal player here is long off the tee, in form on approach and good long iron players, and maybe most importantly an elite scrambler. This is also a course where course history is very predictive and institutional knowledge of Augusta is a big edge given the many nuances here. This will lead me to put a fairly big weight on course history. Other things that I’m factoring in include history in majors, par 5 scoring, 3 putt avoidance, and history in difficult scoring conditions. Still on the fence on some guys will sprinkle in my picks throughout the week.
Continued….
If you read my posts you probably know by now that I generally don’t value putting very much given how much variance is involved in it. This will also be the case for me this week with how difficult Augusta is, not requiring playing to make a bunch of birdie putts to have success. I’ll take a look at guys who putt well on fast greens, but otherwise I’ll be heavily weighing tee to green stats.
The ideal player here is long off the tee, in form on approach and good long iron players, and maybe most importantly an elite scrambler. This is also a course where course history is very predictive and institutional knowledge of Augusta is a big edge given the many nuances here. This will lead me to put a fairly big weight on course history. Other things that I’m factoring in include history in majors, par 5 scoring, 3 putt avoidance, and history in difficult scoring conditions. Still on the fence on some guys will sprinkle in my picks throughout the week.
Alright has been a crazy busy week, time to bear down and wrap up this card. Will be in and out throughout the day/night. Here’s everything I played early in the week
Outrights:
Brooks Koepka (30-1)
Robert Macintyre (55-1)
Russell Henley (70-1)
Patrick Reed (110-1)
Top 20 (ties included):
Russell Henley (+130)
Robert Macintyre (+130)
Patrick Reed (+210)
Alright has been a crazy busy week, time to bear down and wrap up this card. Will be in and out throughout the day/night. Here’s everything I played early in the week
I’m sure most of us are very familiar with Augusta and how it plays but I’ll still run through a course breakdown. I will preface this by saying you really need every part of your game firing at this golf course. It’s a very demanding test off the tee and on approach, but equally demanding around the greens where we consistently see winners here with soft hands around these lightning fast undulating green surfaces. A balanced game works very well here and that’s why you see the best players in the world roaming the top of the leaderboard year after year. A couple masters trends that I found interesting… 11 of the past 13 master winners had a win in their past 6 starts and 12 of the last 13 winners had a top 15 finish in the prior year majors. These trends highlight the importance of current form and recent success in majors heading into Augusta. 
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