Matsuyama ov Dustin Johnson
I’ve learned my lesson. When Matsuyama is playing at an elite level…bet on him. A win last week in a stacked field, 4 straight top 15 finishes, and he’s finished ahead of Dustin in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together. The price is -110 right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it moved towards Dustin. So if you want to jump in now, I think the general uneducated public (who only bets on the Majors, and doesn’t know the real story with what’s going on with Dustin and Matsuyama, so I think you might be able to wait a bit and play this closer to tee times. Only full tourney.
Jordan Spieth ov Dustin Johnson
Spieth playing great as well as Matsuyama, and they’re both playing better than Dustin. Spieth also has finished ahead of Dustin in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in together. I may get burned betting against Dustin, but I don’t trust how he’s playing, he came out and said he’s still not 100%, and that’s a massive red flag at a very long and grueling course.
Rickie Fowler ov Jason Day
We’ve been fading Jason Day in head to head matchups all year, and there are several options this week in head to heads. Rahm, Koepka, and Fowler are matched up against him, but I find Rahm way too inconsistent, so it came down to Koepka and Fowler, and I’m going with Fowler, who’s been better than Jason Day pretty much all year. Fowler better than Day at all the majors this year, and Jason Day has never finished ahead of Fowler at any tournament they’ve played in together this year. I don’t see why that changes this year.
Paul Casey ov Justin Rose
Not sure what happened to Justin Rose after the Masters, but apparently losing to Sergio Garcia in a clutch situation has really scarred Rose. Since the Maters, he has no top 50 finishes on the PGA tour, two missed cuts, a 65th, 54th, and 63rd. Paul Casey on the other hand down’t have a finish outside of the top 26 since the Masters, and he’s got 5 top 15 finishes in that time span, and he’s crushed Rose in head to heads at the US Open, The British, and the Bridgestone last week. Really like this matchups.
Jamie Lovemark ov Francesco Molinari
I’ll take a stab at Lovemark here, especially since he’s a massive underdog at +135. Molinari has really been a disappointment recently. with some uncharacteristically bad finishes. Compare that to Lovemark, and he’s been surprisingly good. If you put these two recent forms next each other with no names, you would guess Molinari’s is Lovemarks and Lovemarks is Molinaris. Lovemark has one finished outside the top 30 in the last 7 tournaments, and he’s been better than Molinari at the last two majors, and Molinari has missed the cut at the last two majors. And Molinari is an accurate driver, but not very long. 291 yards.
Li Hoatong ov Russell Knox
Going to take a stab here with Li here as a big underdog at +155 in this matchup. Knox finished 5th last week at the Bridgestone, but he’s missed the cut at all the majors this year, and he’s been a massive disappointment. Haotong Li has finished better than Knox at the two majors he’s played in, the US Open and the British…so I love the value here. Since February, Knox only has 2 finishes inside the top 37, and he has 8 missed cuts in that same time period.
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