Welcome to the First of
Many PGA Analysis Threads!
Preview:
The
first PGA event of 2015 (Not the official 2014-15 season.... but of the
calendar year) will be underway Friday January 9th. Hosting
the event is The Plantation Course at
the always beautiful Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, Hawaii. The always anticipated, first PGA
event of 2015 will kick off with just 34 of the past seasons PGA
Winners. Of those most notably choosing to skip the event are 4 of the top
10 in terms of OWGR Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott & Justin
Rose.
Field Favourites:
Leading
the field as favorites will be 2 time Masters Champion Bubba Watson (+700) and
WGC-Accenture Match Play Champion Jason Day (+700). Also in the field we
have FedEx Cup Champion Billy Horschel (+2000), last year’s winner Zach Johnson
(+1600) & former back to back winner of this event in 2009/2010 Geoff
Ogilvy (+3300).
Course Details:
This
course has the misconception of being a long bombers paradise. After reviewing
a list of recent winners (Zach Johnson; Dustin Johnson; Steve Stricker;
Jonathan Byrd; Geoff Ogilvy) I think it’s easy to repeat that this is a
misconception. Most tend to look at this course being 7,411 yards and overlook the fact that for a Par 73, that isn't anything too crazy. The historical
swirling winds at this course are much more of a concern then its distance, and
players who are able to stick their irons and make their putts will
be the greatest beneficiaries. Also worth noting is that to win this event, one
must be able to go low. Last year’s winner Zach Johnson finished at 19 under par despite
posting a 3rd round +1.
Betting Approach:
In my
opinion, the best way to approach this type of event in terms of predicting a 4
round winner is to find value in middle class golfers who may be risky
"round to round" but are capable of going off on Birdie Rampages!
Picks:
This
week I will be posting players who I believe have value at their current odds,
and will not be going into too much analysis on recent form since being the
first tournament for many in over a month, and being just after the holidays,
we really can’t rely on recent performance as an indicator for success.
Hyundai Tournament of Champions - January 9th to 12th - @AndrewMGolf
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Posts: 4
Posted:
#1
Posted:
#2
This Week’s Top 3 Official Plays: (Will be kept track as 1 Unit Wagers)
Patrick Reed (+1600) - His ability to go low is what makes him so attractive. With 3 rounds of 5 under par play being a necessity to compete he should be at an advantage in this 34 player field. (Play no lower than @+1300) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @ +100)
Billy Horschel (+2000) - While you can't argue with his recent success which has led him to his first ever FedEx Cup, Horschel does remain a risky option as he does occasionally fall behind in the early rounds. Lucky for us there is no cut in this season opener and he will have plenty of time to go low and a 67 67 finish is not far out of his realm. (I wouldn't go lower then +2000) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @+100)
Brendon Todd (+2800) - His greatest weakness is probably his failure to hit fairways consistently but even if he misses the fairways he will rarely be out of reach of the greens on these Par 4s. Todd is the best putter from 15 to 20 feet on tour and he will be attempting, and hopefully making, lots of putts from that range all weekend. (Play no lower than @ +2600) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @ +138)
Other Degenerate Plays: (Not Official Plays)
Jason Day (+700)
Matt Kuchar (+800)
Jimmy Walker (+1600)
Robert Streb (Top 10 Finish +225)
If you have read this far thanks for the interest and I can’t wait to talk more golf with you in the comment section below. Also feel free to follow me on Twitter @AndrewMGolf. If you are a fantasy golf player I'm open to conversation as well, so go ahead and message me, post below, or send me a tweet. If I don't get back to you before tee off my apologies it is by no means intentional. Good Luck everyone on your plays this week!
Please Note: All odds are taken from William Hill at the time of writing. Betting odds are constantly changing and those who choose to use another bookmaker may have different odds available to them.
Patrick Reed (+1600) - His ability to go low is what makes him so attractive. With 3 rounds of 5 under par play being a necessity to compete he should be at an advantage in this 34 player field. (Play no lower than @+1300) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @ +100)
Billy Horschel (+2000) - While you can't argue with his recent success which has led him to his first ever FedEx Cup, Horschel does remain a risky option as he does occasionally fall behind in the early rounds. Lucky for us there is no cut in this season opener and he will have plenty of time to go low and a 67 67 finish is not far out of his realm. (I wouldn't go lower then +2000) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @+100)
Brendon Todd (+2800) - His greatest weakness is probably his failure to hit fairways consistently but even if he misses the fairways he will rarely be out of reach of the greens on these Par 4s. Todd is the best putter from 15 to 20 feet on tour and he will be attempting, and hopefully making, lots of putts from that range all weekend. (Play no lower than @ +2600) (Also playable for Top 10 finish @ +138)
Other Degenerate Plays: (Not Official Plays)
Jason Day (+700)
Matt Kuchar (+800)
Jimmy Walker (+1600)
Robert Streb (Top 10 Finish +225)
If you have read this far thanks for the interest and I can’t wait to talk more golf with you in the comment section below. Also feel free to follow me on Twitter @AndrewMGolf. If you are a fantasy golf player I'm open to conversation as well, so go ahead and message me, post below, or send me a tweet. If I don't get back to you before tee off my apologies it is by no means intentional. Good Luck everyone on your plays this week!
Please Note: All odds are taken from William Hill at the time of writing. Betting odds are constantly changing and those who choose to use another bookmaker may have different odds available to them.
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