early PGA Championship "dis-cussing"

PGA Championship August 10th thru 13th
Quail Hollow Country Club, Charlotte, NC

5 most recent tourney winners @ Quail Hollow:
James Hahn
Rory McIlroy
J.B. Holmes
Derek Ernst
Rickie Fowler

"to win" favorites
Rory McIlroy 7-1
Jordan Spieth 8-1
Dustin Johnson 12-1
Hideki Matsuyama 15-1
Rickie Fowler 15-1
Jason Day 25-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1

WHO is HOT

Hideki Matsuyama. unreal final round [-9] 61 on Firestone South to tie Tiger Woods record. "samurai golfer" now has four wins this season AND a solid 2nd @ the US Open with an 11th @ The Masters. he is 15-1 "to win" @ Quail Hollow next week

Zack Johnson. Zack been playing solid golf his last three with this 2nd @ WGC-Bridgestone, tied 14th @ British Open and tied for 5th @ John Deere. he is 60-1 "to win" next week down from 100-1 pre-tourney. has a chance for a second leg of that "Grand Slam" rabbit

Charley Hoffman. "The Hoff" now with a playoff 2nd and two 3rd place in his last 5 tourneys to go along with tied 20th @ British Open, 8th @ US Open and tied 22nd @ The Masters. he was the first round leader @ Augusta this year. he is 75-1 "to win" @ South Point down from a 125-1 BUT as low as 30-1 at some other Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Rickie Fowler. "Rickie Tickie" 9th @ WGC-Bridgestone. has a win @ The Honda Classic and has been "wicked close" a bunch more with 7 top five tourneys including a tied 5th @ US Open. also is one of the five most recent winners @ Quail Hollow. he is 15-1 "to win" next week

Jordan Spieth. OK so Spieth had a very "pedestrian" tourney tied for 13th BUT he just WON his last two including the British Open and might have been somewhat "looking ahead" to Quail Hollow next week where he has the chance to COMPLETE the modern "Grand Slam" at the age of 24. don't forget he was 2nd to Jason Day two years ago @ Whistling Straits. the kid just seems to "get up" for the majors. he is 8-1 "to win" next week down from 10-1

WHO is NOT

pick a "Euro Trash" player, ANY "Euro Trash" player, with the exception of Thomas "Salt" Pieters who held on for 4th and Paul Casey tied for 5th. supposed "Top Guns" Fleetwood, Noren, Stenson. Molinari, Schwartzel, Grace, Rahm, Hatton, Wiesberger, Rafael Cabrera-Bello & Company ALL fell FLAT on their BUTT @ Firestone South. about the ONLY bright spot for the Euro's besides Pieters and Casey was Aussie Scott Hend who had a 3rd round [-7] 63 and Thor Olesen with a final round [-5] 65 to both get tied for tourney 10th. they are both in the William-Hill 40-1 FIELD for next week. btw, I think Russell Knox tied for 5th was a "fluke". the Scotsman has been "Mr Missed Cut" most of the season.

WHO could SURPRISE ???

I think ANY of the recent WINNERS could "sneak up" on everyone next week. that includes: (finish this week)

Jhonattan Vegas - Canadian Open (tied 17)
Jordan Spieth - British Open (tied 13th)
Grayson Murray - Barbasol (did not play)
Bryson DeChambeau - John Deere (tied 60th)
Kyle Stanley - Quicken Loans (tied 41st)
Xander Schauffele - Greenbrier Classic (tied 13th)
Brooks Koepka - US Open (tied 17th)
Daniel Berger - FedEx St. Jude (tied 17th)
Jordan L Smith - European Open (did not play)
Alex Levy - China Open & 2nd @ European Open (did not play)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - Scottish Open (72nd)
John Rahm - Irish Open (tied 28th)
Tommy Fleetwood - Open de France (tied 28th)

OPINIONS ???

Zach Johnson is definitely in the mix for me...QH is a drivers course...and he is always consistent.

Zach Johnson great form for sure...and he has experience in major wins, so I like him a lot.

Rain and a longer course (renovations in the last 3-4 months) will favor some of the driver distance guys and accuracy.

My $$$ says Rory, Jordan or Dustin will lift the Wanamaker trophy. ??

thanks for the input, guys (waiting for sacker17 as I value his opinions)

agree with alangrrbs "I love Xander.  He's been a head to head monster" comment. "X" has become a favorite match play of mine since his US Open finish. I doubt he will be a "fat" +140 "dog" again this tourney

I am glad I chanced the William-Hill FIELD @ 40-1 Saturday. has dropped to 25-1 on Monday. some interesting "cats & dogs" in that bet. noted "to win" bets are @ Westgate

Rich Beem <<< 2500-1 (surprise 2002 PGA winner over Tiger Woods)
Jonas Blixt <<< 300-1
Nicky Colsaerts <<< 250-1 (3rd BMW PGA)
Graham DeLaet << 250-1
Luke Donald <<< 300-1
Ernie Els <<< 300-1
Ryan Fox <<< 250-1 (4th Scottish Open. 4th Irish Open. 6th Open de France)
Dylan Frittelli <<< 300-1 (WON Lyoness Open)
Cody Gribble <<< 500-1 (WON Sanderson Farms)
Scott Hend <<< 250-1 (10th last week @ Bridgestone)
Mackenzie Hughes <<< 500-1 (WON The RSM Classic)
Yuta Ikeda <<< 500-1
Thongchai Jaidee <<< 500-1
Kyung-Tae Kim <<< 500-1
Anirban Lahiri <<< 300-1
Pablo Larrazabal <<< 500-1 (3rd China Open. 2nd Abu Dhabi)
Luke List <<< 250-1
Alex Levy <<< 250-1 (WON China Open. 2nd European Open)
Joost Luiten <<< 300-1
Grayson Murray <<< 250-1 (WON Barbasol)
Thorbjorn Olesen <<< 150-1  (10th last week @ Bridgestone. 3rd Open de France. 4th Nordea Masters)
Rod Pampling <<< 1000-1 (WON Shriners Las Vegas)
D.A. Points <<< 1000-1 (WON Puerto Rico Open)
Chez Reavie <<< 300-1
Vijay Singh <<< 500-1
Jordan L Smith <<< 250-1 (WON European Open two weeks ago)
Younghan Song <<< 500-1
Richard Sterne <<< 500-1
Brandon Stone <<< 500-1 (WON Alfred Dunhill)
Chris Stroud <<< 300-1 (WON Barracuda last week - playoff)
Hideto Tanihara <<< 300-1
Y.E. Yang <<< 1000-1
Fabrizio Zanotti <<< 500-1 (WON Maybank Open with final round [-9])

Big boy track will need big boy club this week

early tourney match play @ William-Hill that jumped at me

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Dustin Johnson

the rest of the Las vegas sportsbooks have NOT listed yet. looking forward to seeing Westgate "quad" groups, over/under and make the cut yes/no props

the other "of interest " match plays up @ William Hill are

Jordan Spieth +115 over Rory McIlroy -135
Charley Hoffman +135 over Rickie Fowler -155
Xander Schauffele +115 vs Zack Johnson -135

BUT am waiting to see what the other books come up with. probably will NOT fool with "X" this week vs Zack. hopefully "X" will have other match plays besides that one. LIKE to see him in a "quad" group

I like the way you think Le Rink Rat.  Hoffman and X look inviting. Hideki is the most consistent guy on the tour. Good luck to you.  I have a Field bet also.  

well added these when Westgate put out their tourney match plays and "quad" groups (bet/return)

PGA Championship tourney match play bets (so far)
Jordan Spieth +140 over Rory McIlroy (36/86.40)
Hideki Matsuyama +120 over Rory McIlroy (42/92.40)
Thorbjorn Olesen +125 over Lee Westwood (40/90)

already booked Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Dustin Johnson (55/105) @ William Hill. that has gone to -120

PGA Championship tourney "quad" groups

group A
Rory McIlroy +220 <<< (45/144)
Jordan Spieth +275
Dustin Johnson +275
Hideki Matsuyama +275
(Rory bet a "halfazzed hedge" on Spieth and Matsuyama match plays)

group D
Thomas Pieters +260
Tommy Fleetwood +280 <<< (35/133)
Branden Grace +225
Alex Noren +280
(I expect Tommy to "bounce back" like he has in the past)

group E
Charley Hoffman +220
Zack Johnson +275 <<< (36/135)
Kevin Chappell +220
Kevin Kisner +350
(I can get Zack @ +275 ??? Charley good BUT +220 just too low)

group F
Bubba Watson +240
Patrick Reed +240
Charl Schwartzel +275 <<< (36/135)
Louis Oosthuizen +290
(gonna "use the schwartz" in F Troop. the "dog with less fleas")

STILL waiting for William-Hill and Westgate over-under a CUT props. also South Point tourney match plays

btw, South Point has dumped "The Hoff" "to win" to 40-1 same as Westgate. William-Hill is 30-1

do NOT like the "X" tourney match plays I have seen so far. can NOT go against Zack at William-Hill and the Westgate has him -110 vs the "Poulter-geist" who has been dangerous lately. disappointed NO "quad" group bet for him at Westgate. was hoping they would place him with other recent tourney winners like Vegas, DeChambeau and Kyle Stanley

Good stuff guys. My favorite matchups so far...
Koepka -120 over Day
Scott -120 over Rose
Casey -130 over Rose
Zack -120 over Bubba
Hahn +110 over Cantalay
Stricter -120 over Fisher

Haven't played em yet but will probably check market prices and lock some tomorrow. 6 would be a lot of tourney matchups for me so might cut a few. Easier to talk me out of the bottom of the list.

Rory
Won here 2010&2015
2d here 2012

Phil
11 Top 12 finishes here over his career
Lives this course

Finau
T16 here at Wells Fargo 2015

thanks for the input, sacker17

picked up these Tuesday

Jhonathan Vegas -105 vs Keegan Bradley 52.50/102.50)
Haotong Li +140 vs Russell Knox (36/86.40)
Zack Johnson +115 vs Kevin Chappell (44/96.60)
Thomas Pieters +135 over Henrik Stenson (37/86.95)
Charley Hoffman even over Daniel Berger (50/100)

also played the "Playoff ??? YES" +310 prop (50/205)

still trying to make up my mind on "to make the cut" props. have NOT seen any offered for the "top gun" favorites so far. only one played as of now Justin Rose NO +280 (36/136.80) @ Westgate but leaning toward a YES parlay of Mickelson -250, Leishman -280, "Dis"-Grace yes -270 and Zack Johnson -320

Xander Schauffele 100/1 

LOVE my man "X" and have his "to win" @ 150-1 BUT staying away from his match plays and props this week

well William-Hill would NOT allow that "to make the cut YES" parlay. so much for THAT thought. did notice that Westgate has a Justin Thomas "to make the cut NO @ +270. he shot poorly the 1st two rounds @ The Bridgestone last week with [+3] after 36 holes AND missed the cut @ British Open [+7], Quicken Loans [+5] and Travelers [+5] his three previous

In the past 10 years the PGA has been a good place for solid young golfers to get their first major...Walker, Day, Dufner, Bradley, Yang

Normally I just sprinkle a little bit on the guys I pick in the contest...and it's worked out fantastic with my 4 winners this year...but this week it's different

Wouldn't shock me if Mickelson misses the cut...might be some prop value there...hasn't been great with his brother on the bag.

Rat
I wouldn't go against Rory this week
He picked things up last week and now heads to a place he has a great history at.
Won here 2015&2015
2nd 2012

I like the Oleson +125
Like Matsuyama v DJ
Like Li +150 v Knox. Li has been very good. Knox playing better but way too high line. I see it pretty Even.

I just added to my plays
1RD Grace -145 v Perez
Perez awful last 2 weeks. 1st MC in Germany. Then last week at bottom of pack.
Grace has been pretty good and always seems to show up for the majors

well here is what I chanced for 1st round match plays

Pablo Larrazabal +145 over Shane Lowry
Wesley Bryan +115 over Sung Kang
Tommy Fleetwood +105 over Justin Thomas
JB Holmes -120 over Louis Oosthuizen
Joost Luiten +140 over Russell Henley
Rafael Cabrera-Bello -110 over Ross Fisher
Grayson Murray even vs Peter Uihlein
Phil Mickelson -115 over Jason Dufner

nothing huge. all $20 "sweat bets"

 on the plays Rink.     

William-Hill just put up an interesting prop

where winner from ???
USA -120
Europe +180 <<< (55/154)
rest of the world +450 <<< (22/121)

Europe +180 gets you the favorite Rory McIlroy along with Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, Thomas Pieters and the rest of the "Euro Trash"  "cats & dogs"

rest of the world +450 gets you Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and all the other South African, Asian, Aussie, Canadian and South American "cats & dogs"

IF you like Rory and "samurai golfer" those two props worth a "sprinkle". hell Matsuyama "to win" best is now 12-1 and McIlroy 7-1 at the Westgate

GOOD call CMJ. Phil really "sucking eggs" 1st round [+6] thru #15. his "make the cut" NO was +220 this week