Super busy next couple days so the write up will be delayed until probably Tuesday. Odds just opened and I fired on these 2.
Outrights:
Billy Horschel (55-1) (Iron game is on fire right now and on a golf course where approach game is very much valued. Always plays well in Florida)
Lee Hodges (80-1) (Playing some good stuff, good course fit. Won at twin cities in 2023 which is a very similar setup, 2 previous top 15s here)
Starting the Florida swing at the Cognizant Classic this week, formerly the Honda classic. This is played at pga national, which used to play as one of the harder courses on the pga tour schedule but has developed into an easier course due to a tough par 4 converted into a par 5 and the rough getting chopped these last couple years. The name of the game here is pretty simple, avoid the water hazards that are very prevalent around here, and spike on approach and with the putter. Pga National is a par 71 measuring out at 7,167 yards with Bermuda greens and water hazards defending 15/18 holes. It’s a very flat golf course and is positional by nature, but ultimately very easy off the tee with a bunch of holes that guys will be leaving driver in the bag. Rough is not penal so the only real defense is the water on wayward tee shots. For this reason I will put minimal weight on off the tee play. I think it’s super important to be dialed in with the middle irons here with majority of approaches coming from 150-200 yds. Not to mention a lot of water comes in play around the greens, you’ll pay a big price if the iron play is not solid. Will be looking at guys who are in form on approach forsure with good long term middle iron play. Good Bermuda grass putters is something to look at as well on these firm and fast greens, although they are getting some rain leading up to Thursday so they may be relatively soft. Around the green is pretty simple around here so again approach and putting will be of upmost importance. I wouldn’t put a ton of weight in course history on a golf course with a lot of variance considering all of the water around here, but there are some golf courses that I think are great reference points with a very similar layout in tpc sawgrass and tpc twin cities. Both water heavy golf courses that reward approach play above all else. Guys that have success in Florida is something I’ll be looking at as well. Don’t have much else to add, it’s a pretty straightforward handicap. Got a hand full of guys in consideration so will narrow that down and post shortly.
I personally worry about the approach play of spieth, Im, and bezuidenhout on this golf course, theres a lot of water trouble approaching in to these greens and all these guys have been pretty bad in that regard. Mitchell and Woodland are guys im considering for positionals, the problem is they are both great OTT players which is largely negated at PGA national due to alot holes where guys will be clubbing down off the tee. But i like them here because they're both in form on approach. Good luck this week brotha
Another add in brian harman. Seems like he’s flying under the radar a bit. But rates out really well for me here. 9th in this field in Florida history, 5th in comp course history, 2nd at the players last year which is very similar to pga National, along with 2 other top 10s there. Middle irons is his strong suit on approach. Always good on these positional courses, I’ll bite.
Brian Harman (65-1)
Brian Harman top 20 (+220)
Finally got everything in. Just felt there was a lot of opportunity down the board for positionals this week on a golf course with a lot of variance, dont trust a lot of these guys at the top of the odds board and water is lurking everywhere. BOL all 
Outrights:
Russell Henley (25-1)
Billy Horschel (55-1)
Lucas Glover (60-1)
JJ Spaun (60-1)
Brian Harman (65-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Billy Horschel (+450)
JJ Spaun (+475)
Top 20 (ties included):
Brian Harman (+220)
Lucas Glover (+220)
Seamus Power (+280)
Doug Ghim (+300)
Andrew Putnam (+400)
Knapp really showed some balls today after coming back off some adversity. Bunched up leaderboard, got a couple contenders in Henley and Spaun. Harman outside shot. Should be a fun finish.
Super excited for next week at bay hill, diving in and will probly have a couple early plays in tomorrow night when odds drop.
@Rollz
I thought it was Ghim who had the makeable birdie putts today, they just didn't go for him for the most part. I like where I stand with him +1400 and I picked up a taste of Michael Kim -110 against Knapp. I didn't watch him shoot 59, my attention focused in on this event as a result of the 59. I just haven't seen the surgery from him on the course like I have with Michael Kim, so at that -110 price, I'm going with Kim. Oh mama I hope Ghim gets those birdie looks and the putts fall tomorrow.
I got a positional on ghim and a lot of exposure in DFS. Putting is always the concern with him. He’s a great ball striker, but quite the opposite with the putter haha. Kim is playing some great golf man, some sustainable stuff. I hope your Kim matchup comes through, but selfishly would like to see Henley or Spaun get it done tomorrow 
Best of luck either way, at least we can both root for knapps downfall lol
Established in 1995,
might have something with those rd 1 plays 
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