Continue the florida swing at bay hill this coming week. This is a true test of golf even for these guys, and an event i always look forward to. This place plays very hard and we rarely see a winning score over 12 under par. Bay hill is a flat par 72 parklands course that measures out quite long at 7,466 yards. It is yet another florida style course with quite a bit of water danger on 9 holes and heavily bunkered. This is always a very firm and fast course and ill certainly be looking for guys that play well in firm conditions. One of the biggest defenses of this course is the incredibly thick rough around the fairways, you will be very much penalized for missing fairways at this venue. The length of this course in addition to this thick rough makes total driving very advantageous. There may not be another course on tour where you can gain this big of an edge off of being long and straight off the tee. I will absolutely be looking for formidable total drivers of the ball here. Its probably the toughest test from tee to green on the pga tour when you mix in the fact that these bermuda greens are extremely firm and fast, making it very difficult to hold greens on approaches. Particularly when trying to do it from the thick rough. These factors are what make this place so difficult. There will be a mix of middle irons and long irons, but an emphasis on long iron approaches with many coming from 200+ yards. Add in the fact that this is an area of the country where it gets very windy, and its no surprise how difficult this place plays. Bay hill has rated out as the 3rd toughest course on tour to gain strokes on approach. I will definitely want formidable long iron players here, but the ability to scramble will obviously be important as well given the difficulty of keeping the ball on the green surface. The around the green areas here used to be short grass, but were converted to very thick rough a few years back which makes it a little easier to scramble around here but certainly not easy due to the green speed. Putting is not something i weigh very heavy in general, but especially not here given the added importance of tee to green skill. This is far from a birdie fest, which lessens the importance of draining a bunch of putts. If anything ill look at guys that have had some success putting on firm and fast greens, but ill largely be ignoring putting stats in exchange for a heavy emphasis on tee to green play. So to recap, The ideal model of golfer you want here is long and straight off of the tee, good middle-long iron players, and the ability to scramble around the greens. Some ancillary stuff that id like to see are guys who have played well on these long difficult tests with thick rough. These courses for me include Muirfield village, Oak Hill, Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow, and Riviera. These courses all emphasize tee to green skill above all else, thus you will see many of the same names at the top of the leaderboard. The guys that make the most sense to me without stating the obvious favorites at the top of the board that i conveniently ignore every week in rory mcllroy/scottie scheffler/Xander (I just cant get myself to bet guys at 10-1 and below in a pga tour event) include names like Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, and Will Zalatoris. Still have some research to do but will be back in a few as i am about to fire on 1 or 2
Arnold Palmar Invitational
Keegan Bradley (50-1) Keegan thrives on long difficult set ups that value total driving. He has 5 top 11's at bay hill and has only missed the cut 1 time in 13 appearances. This place clearly fits is eye and hes hitting the ball pretty well. I just trust him to grind it out when things get tough.
Patrick Cantlay (28-1) If you have been a patrick cantlay better these past couple years you have not been happy, the dude just has not been able to get it done recently. With that being said he seems like hes really close right now, with 4 top 5s and 8 top 15s in his last 11 starts. He thrives on these types of courses, look no further than his record at muirfield village, probably the best comp course to bay hill we have on the pga tour. He has 2 wins and 3 additional top 7s in 9 starts at muirfield. Also has a 4th place finish in 2 starts here at bay hill. Hes been absolutely scorching with the irons these last couple starts as well, i think this is as good of a spot as we've seen in a long time for him
Thanks for your posts/knowledge. I've been checking your threads the last few weeks and considering your picks when I do my draftkings lineups. Keep up the good work. Good luck this week!
Appreciate that my man. FYI, just because I’m making an outright bet on someone doesn’t mean I’m playing them in DFS personally. Often times I’m taking outrights early in the week on guys that are just way too popular to deploy in dfs. As much as I like a particular player to win game theory always comes first when it comes to my draft kings lineups.
You can play your lineups however you want of course but I just wanted to be transparent about that. Of course you can play someone popular as long as you’re getting different somewhere else in your lineups. With all that being said, I’ll likely have some cantlay and Bradley this week in DFS as long as ownership doesn’t get out of hand, I worry that cantlay may catch some steam though.
Good luck this week buddy, should be a great event per usual
I tend to overweigh course history as a determining factor for DFS. With that in mind, Harris English is criminally underpriced on Draftkings, no?
Yeah course history drives ownership up unfortunately. He does look cheap, I was toying around with playing him. I think he’ll definitely be the most popular guy in the 6k’s though so I’ll probly lay off
Tommy Fleetwood (30-1) If this place plays very difficult which I think it will Tommy’s ceiling goes up. His game is solid everywhere, and his approach numbers have been as good as we’ve seen in the past year. Only a matter of time until he gets a win, this seems like a good enough spot where he can separate with his driver by staying out of the long stuff. Ranks 5th in this field in history on “long and difficult” golf courses, and 9th on approach for the last 36 rounds. 3 top 10s at bay hill as well.
Have you ever won a single golf tournament outright pick? Or is it just spray and pray
I see you’re new here. Admittedly a lot of outright wagers are spray and pray, that’s how it goes when you’re betting at 25-1 and above.
To answer your question I’ve hit outrights in 2 of the last 4 weeks. Doing pretty well so far this year. Best of luck on your wagers 
I don't bet favs in weekly tournaments, but I bet a couple futures on the entire season for Scottie (parlayed with other futures in other sports). Southern IN. You?
I can understand that, probly a good bet. I don’t see him having quite as good of a year compared to last but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t win it
Grew up in the Indy area but in southern IN now myself.
@Rollz I do like Scottie this week and maybe the Masters...but bol on your plays... Congrats on your Outrights.....
Love Scottie this week, one of the best courses for him to separate. I just can’t bet a golfer at 3 or 4-1. Heavy on DFS though so will have some exposure.
Thanks brotha 
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