Accventures Pebble Beach Play Thread

Hubbard, fitz, or Pavon. If you had to choose one to win after 2 rounds...who are you taking....

Fitz is still not on my book's live odds

Hubbard

I shouldve pulled the trigger with him

adding:

Si Woo Kim to win (250-1 for $22)

Grillo to win (250-1 for $17)

Hossler to win (250-1 for $18)

@Raidernator76

 Pavon

their not even gona play hopefully tourny gets canceled so i get all my money back lol 

2-0-1 on matchups today, 4-0-1 for the tourney.  Those wins should cover all of my "to win" wagers and then some.

Haha. I would like to see another day of golf. 

Adding more Hubbard to win (18-1 for $30)

literaly jumping off the nearest cliff if hubbard express wins. been on him like just about almost ever tourny lol

@EuroPro

 They don't return your money if they have completed two rounds at my sports book (Fan Duel and Draft Kings). Tournament is live if "Tournament bets will only be settled if 36 holes have been completed, and an official result has been declared. Should 36 holes not be completed then all bets on that event will be void except markets that have already been decided i.e., 'first round 3-balls', ‘First Round Leader’, etc."

@EuroPro

 its not too late. 18-1 still can make money. 

@accventures

 I like the long odds plays if this goes off tomorrow or Monday!

#8 at Pebble? Lol.

Pavon has his family with him. Which brings positive vibes. I think if this gets off, he makes it back-,to-back. 

Hoping it'll be like last year when i had Glover 2 in a row

I didn't take Pavon because I just don't like betting guys back to back. I need to get off of that because it seems like every week the winner or runner up is in the top 2 the following week. 

Pavon is also really good fit for rain tomorrow. Despite the movement of his drives, he has good fairway accuracy and scrimmaging and great bogey avoidance. 

Up around $300 if I count the guys that I bet on that are too far back to win (as losses) and don't count the guys who still have a shot.  Going 4-0-1 on the matchups has helped.  

A little insight on my golf strategy:  Typically before the last round I take an inventory of who is out, who still has a shot and how much I'd win if they pulled it out and then most importantly, who I DO NOT have that I need to build a position in.  If they are semi long shots to long shots before the last round begins, , I'll add a couple of those guys before the round tees off (Grillo, Hossler and Si Woo).  If they are less than say 50-1 odds, I wait.  Then I look to build positions in the guys I do not have with less attractive adds as play begins and as they mess a hole or two up and their odds jump.  I use the pgatour.com website and highlight the guys I do have in color so I can also visualize who I have and the gaps I need to build a position in.

In the end, I like to get to a couple to few hours before the round ends and have most of the guys showing on the leader board.  That way I have high odds of winning some money.  Yes, it's a less lucrative approach than just picking a few golfers and not playing other guys and "betting against myself" but it works and you can still have a very long shot from earlier in the tounramne two pulls of a big one (Pavon, Hubbard and the three guys I added last night would all be big payouts for example).

One caveat:  Iif they don't inside today and it's tomorrow instead, I will not be able to do my normal strategy well because.....I have a job and can't sit and watch golf all day! So if that's the case, I'll do my best to track things and apply my strategy but no promises.  Normally I'd be live all the way through to the end on a Sunday. 

So here is a question for the board.  I was just looking and it appears the likelihood of getting four rounds in is 50/50 at best and it would have to mean finishing tomorrow.  With a ton more rain coming and the course already in bad shape rom the week, if they cannot get it playable for Monday, they'll shorten to 54 holes.  It's risky because I have Pavon, Hubbard and Rose that would be big payouts if they win but I'm thinking I should bet maybe $500 on Clark at 1.80-1 to win.  I they don't play, wouldn't that count as a winner?

Due to the circumstances, I'm actually very surprised they haven't taken this off the boards.

Fuck it.  I put $250 on Wyndam clark to win $450.  I would never do this normally but I just don't see how they get this last round in at all.  What's the worst that can happen?  They void my bet BUT if they do, they will have to refund them all and so I win either way and have ZERO to lose.  Gotta love a win/win.  I really ought to bet a lot more on him to win.  IN fact, because they haven't take this off the board, we all should do what I just did.  Really stupid of them to have this up right now until it becomes more clear as to what is going to happen.

Wish I had thought this thru a little more before I made the Grillo, Si Woo Hossler and extra Hubbard play last night.   In hindsight, that's likely throwing money out the window.

I think they get the 4th in some how some way. They finished on Monday last year, so that's not totally out of the question. Welcome back and great first week back 

If they knew what the weather was going to be like, why not get 36 holes in on Saturday.  Smh

agree

off the board now I assume due to the round being suspended

looks like only the "to win" is off the board