Accventures Mexico Open Picks Thread

Adding:

Lanto Griffin to win (85-1 for $25)

Rai to win (125-1 for $10)

Adding:  De la Fuentes (A) to win:  (200-1 for $15).......why not, he's hanging tough, amateur or not.

Little more Lanto to win (100-1 for $7)

@accventures

 Cheers m8

Who should we add? I'm thinking...

Novak +4000

Oleson +4000

Grillo +4000

Rodgers +4500

Bramlett +6500

Hadley +7000

C. Kim +7000

Hojgaard +7500

Yuan +10000

Dougherty +12000

Champ +12000

Shelton +15000

Lower +17000

Norlander +25000

Campillo +35000

Rai +35000

Brandon Wu +300000

I like Hojgaard,  Grillo, Hadley on that list

Posting some matchups for round 3 shortly.  2-1-1 yesterday.

I'm strongly considering Hojgaard at that number. I lost my parlays with him t10, and t20. 

Does he make a run though? From 1600-1800 pre tourney to 7500 now is very tasty, IMO.

I see a sprinkle....

Thorbjorn Oleson is another guy that has my eye.

14-5-4 on match-ups YTD

3rd round matchups:

McNealy (-105) over Thompson $155

Van Rooyen (-117) over Rodgers. $160

Grillo (even) over Jaeger $150

Rai (-131) over Young. $165

Novack (-111) over Chan Kim. $160

@NEGolfJosh3

 Like both of those and may play the same myself.  Both guys are solid and the odds are more attractive now for sure.

The name of the game is VALUE, VALUE, VALUE and being opportunistic when they get attractive.  Sorta like what you hear guys say about the real tough tracks where everyone is having to grind and par is a great round.  Be patient and keep grinding away.  

Adding:

Hojgaard to win (70-1 for $33).   He's 70-1 at Bovada and only 55-1 at betonline

Olesen to win (40-1 for $40). same odds at both books

Adding:

Ryan Moore to win (300-1 for $12).   not likely to win but he's in the hunt and 300-1........doesn't make tons of sense and I'll grab it

Adding:

Yuan to win (90-1 for $8)

Davis Thompson to win (150-1 for $14)

Olesen to win (40-1 for $10)

No studs at the top and I feel like this thing is wide open.

Adding:

Maverick McNealy to win (300-1 for $10)

Adding:

Champ to win (77-1 for $35). betonline odds, Bovada showing 40-1???

Adding:

3rd round leader

Chan Kim 3rd round leader (80-1 for $15)

Yuan 3rd round leader (150-1 for $11)

Adding:

Lanto Griffin 3rd round leader (250-1 for $6)

CT Pan hanging on longer than most expected.......

Adding:

Norlander to win (110-1 for $28)

Adding:

Van Rooyen 3rd round leader (40-1 for $16)

Ortiz 3rd round leader (125-1 for $7)

Adding:

Ortiz to win (65-1 for $30)

Another 1st loser for me. Willy Z last week, Sami this week. Knapp is running away with this

Knapp needs to chill out. I mean I know he is good, but let's at least have a game of it tomorrow.

3-5-1 in matchups so far this weekend, puts me at 15-9-4 YTD on the match-ups that have been bankrolling my speculative "to win" plays.  A couples of guys have killed me this weekend.

Looks like I'm down roughly $1.064 for the weekend if I count every play I've made "to win" as a loser.  Only shot is Norlander so not totally dead on plays made so far but let's just call it life support and the family has their hand on the power cord.

My system works well but there is zero accounting or the random guy I've literally never heard of going insane like Knapp sack has on us.  The killer is that you'd never play him pre-tournament, you'd never even look at him most likely.  Then, he doesn't go stupid low on Thursday, so he's still not on the radar.  Nor does he do what he did yesterday on Friday, where you might also grab him headed into the weekend.  Put simply, -8 on Saturday from a position in striking distance and no one having ever heard of him is a killer.  Sorta like most of the guys behind him......Sami man, Silverman, Sam Kim, Lower........wtf?  Maybe I fell asleep and this is really a AJGA event in some resort in Tennessee.  It happens, especially possible on a weekend when it's a venue, caliber event and field like this bozo show.  Fuck.

So now it comes down to Sunday and what to do.  I've built a very nice war chest quickly YTD and really just don't want to get pissed or frustrated any more and start chasing.  I am looking at some ideas right now and may or may not come back with anything real helpful.  Reality is that if this no name is anywhere below par today, no one will catch him other than the Sami Davis Jr guy within who is the only other guy anywhere close.  

Ass clown weekend.  Back shortly.