Baltimore at Tennessee (01/10/2009)

Got UF and the Ravens teased to +2/+9 respectively.  If UF hits, hopefully the wait till sunday doesn't kill me, I'll be in TN for sure, trying to see if I can make it to the game.  

Good game to tease...

thinking of a 3 team teaser

 

                             baltimore+13

                             san deigo+16

                             carolina - even 

 i know alot of people think teasers are sucker bets but they made me lots of this year

Baltimore wins this game s/u.  Defense is playing lights out right now. I expect afc title game to match ravens/steelers. Baltimore ML

My lean is the Ravens as they have been good to me this year. 

 

Positives:  tougher schedule, more tested.  They played 7 teams in the playoff versus TN's 5.  Ravens are 5-1 in the last 6 games so they are headed the right direction.  TN has gone 3-3 the last 6 games (that includes the one they may have given Indy to rest some of their players).  Ravens defense rated higher and even though they have a Rookie QB...is he really a rookie after playing in this league for one year AND the offensive cast around him are seaonsoned veterans AND they don't rely on the pass.

 

Concerns...Balt is 2-5 against those playoff teams while TN is 4-1.  Ravens beat Miami and Philly and lost to Pitts 2x, Indy, Giants and TN although they really out played TN and should have a revenge factor.  TN beat Minn, Ravens, Indy and Pitt and lost to Indy at Indy.

 

What I like about the Ravens is that their defense is rock solid, turnover ratio likely favors them and they have been putting up some points on offense.  What I don't like is they are the road team and less rested.

 

Some addtional playoff facts:

 

Over the last two years home teams in the divisional championships have gone 4-4 ATS so no real magic ATS on being home.  Road dogs have gone 4-4 over the last two years in the divisional championships.

 

Ravens plus 3.5 (buy the half point) the play for me so far.

 

Regarding Over/Under the Ravens team totals have averaged 35 points for all playoff games...7 of them.  TN team totals have averaged 37.5 points for all playoff games...5 of them.

 

They may be a bit more deliberate and run a bit more so if I was to play the over/under it will be under for me at this point.

 

I agree with you that ravens d is playing lights out.  However, Tennessee is playing great d as well. They put it to Big Ben a few weeks ago and I think they can do the same to Flacco. Collins is no superstar qb obviously but he does "manage the game".  Anyway should be a good game, but I like Titans here.

I only post as it gets later in the playoffs, and i generally don't push parlays or anything until Super Bowl Sunday, when the action is limited with only one game, but i really really favor Tennessee, not only to dispatch the Ravens, but also to go all the way.  I welcome anyone to sort my messages for the past few years and validate my theories and thoughts, but i did go Giants and under last year (though i loved San Diego to go all the way, but one broken leg and other injuries prevented that so i had to change horses after the AFCC), and i also loved Colts and under year before (with the Colts lean starting before the playoffs started), and Pitt and under before that, etc.  Anyway, here is the guts of why i love Tennessee, and with the good points above by many of you already, this forms a good case -

 

Disrespect by the media - what is that you say?  Let's get serious, the media is controlled as to what the bettors hear and what rings in our subconscious.  Isn't it funny that both Pennington and Ryan win awards last week, then their teams lose?  Has anyone noticed that of the 2 huge conference tilts in Week 16 to determine home field, the Giants/Panthers game got full media and the Titans/Steelers game got almost no coverage.  Does anyone think the 23-0 shutout loss by Tenny to Indy in meaningless Week 17 is worth anything with the second and third string?  This team is smart, dominant and rested.  But the lack of media focus limits the amount of bets that get put down on them.

 

Oh, yeah, and their coach, Jeff Fisher, is due the respect of a Super Bowl ring.  His contemporaries Gruden, Billick and Cowher, plus count Dungy in that list, already have them.

 

My most reliable theory, odd as it is, dictates that one, and sometimes two, teams, will go undefeated ATS in the playoff year, and there is a "rotation".  For example, last year, San Diego went 3-0 although they lost SU to New England, forming a middle.  The Giants went 4-0, a full undefeated run, much like Indy went 4-0 the year prior, Pittsburgh 4-0 prior to that, and oddly Philly 3-0 the year prior, in a losing effort against NE in the Super Bowl (Carolina also went 4-0 in losing to NE in 2004, call it Brady's Curse).  Philly also went 3-0 several years back when they lost to the Rams in the NFCC game prior to the 2001-2002 Super Bowl.  There are times when multiple teams go undefeated with at least 2 results, obviously 2 don't cover the Super Bowl, except in the case of the Rams/Titans push in 2000.  Seems that the Super Bowl champion covers the spread, unless you are favored and your name is New England (their cover against the Rams was as 14-point dogs).

 

Incidentally, Baltimore and Tennessee both had nice runs, Baltimore when they won the 2001 Super Bowl out of nowhere, and even Tennessee, going undefeated ATS by pushing the 7 point spread in their Super Bowl loss to the Rams the year prior.  Both teams' 2008 versions are vastly different, with just a handful of holdovers, so Ray Lewis for the Ravens and Jeff Fisher for the Titans seem to be the main continuity links.

 

While there were no middles this past wildcard weekend, I expect at least one this weekend, but the likely candidates are both NFC games.  Historically, at least for the last 10 years and my numbers do not go back to Denver, the last B2B champion that covered both Super Bowls they won, a team does not repeat such a run of ATS wins, and Philly just became the first to amass the 10 cumulative ATS wins.  Giants are currently at 8.  So, looking at our remaining 8 teams, and discounting Arizona (though Warner has history, they could get through this weekend, but no legit chance to win the big one), you have Carolina's 4-0 run from 2004, Giants 4-0 run from 2005, and Philly with 3-0 runs in 2002 and 2005 as part of their 10-5 record, so no candidates, although Philly is indeed a wildcard and could surprise.  In the AFC, Pitt had their 4-0 glory in 2006 (and covered Jax in a losing effort last year), San Diego had their dream derailed at 3-0 last year, but now 4-0 counting last weekend (possible but unlikely), and we are left with Baltimore and Tennessee.  No disrespect to Baltimore, but everyone loves them and has a short memory, and Fisher and Collins (maybe co-starring Vince Young as Jeff Hostetler) are much more due and owing than Harbaugh and Flacco.  All 4 AFC teams are capable of going the distance, but too many signs point to Tennessee that i will call it early and take my lumps if they bow out and do not raise the trophy in Tampa.  They are truly flying under the radar.  If they get past Baltimore, and nothing is a lock, suddenly they host the AFCC and are favored to get to the Super Bowl, where they should/would be favored over anybody else besides the Giants as reps from the NFC.

 

Anyone still wondering why the Bucs nosedived and didn't make the playoffs?  C'mon - you think the league would allow anyone to have a home game in the Super Bowl?  That is a bet i should have made on a fade at matchbook.com when they were 9-3.

 

Sorry this is long, i agree my theories are crazy, but they have been bearing fruit, so i stick with a winner.  GL to everyone, happy to expect ridicule if I crash and burn - I actually thought Dallas had a chance to go long this year, that is why i still have a day job. 

flyhi

previous years trends, results and ATS records are just that. How do last years results dictate this years outcomes? I'm not trying to bash you.

 

Good Luck

This is probably the hardest of all the games this weekend to cap. Both teams are pretty evenly matched. Very good DEF's and QB's that can manage the game. This game may go to overtime tied 13-13 and a flip of a coin will decide the winner. I am not sure I'll be this one yet but if I do I will be buying the hook either way I play it.

 

Good Luck!

75 % of the earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by