Boston at Detroit (05/26/2008)

Some thoughts here on the lines and betting %.  Line opens at 5.5.. .5 higher than the first game in Det.  66% of public $ is on Det, line is moving in the correct direction and is now -6-6.5.  Spread hasn't played so far in this series and the Celts haven't covers as a road dog yet in the playoffs...  That said, the Celts haven't been more than a 5pt dog all season.

Thoughts...
Det shot 7.7% from 3.
Prince shot 2-11, Billups 1-6, Stuckey 4-12 from the field.
Can Boston stay out of the penalty?
Can Rondo and Perkins continue to be effective?
Can the Celts continue to dominate the boards?

Hmmm..  I don't know if the Celts have what it takes to do it again tonight... The Stones haven't lost back to back at home since the regular season last year.. I don't see it happening now..

Thoughts?

BTW.. nice night CMJ..  

Men At Work, NICE!

I'm thinking the celtics were dogs in game 3 and covered, but I dont think they cover tonight, boston by 10 or 15

buying the points and taking pistons ML big time!!!
pistons 1st half also

by simple virtue of the fact that theres no way in hell the celtics take both games in detroit...

the only question mark is Chauncey's effectiveness but we have all seen Stuckey come up big so I'm not worried.

GL

And you know, because?

Det has a strong recent basketball history.  I cant see them down 3-1 and neither can they.  Chauncey or no, the crowd, the hustle and the pride come through at home.  Especially after melt down at home.  I like Defense to prevail and a non-major name in a Det uniform to make a HUGE impact  (stuckey maybe?)

Det -3 for 1/2            BIG  
Det -6 for game         BIG
Under 176               BIG

as always, good luck to all

Boston 1st half +3.5

back at the half...

 

yes i know...come here after the game...and say CHEERS me,Comrad!

I was leaning with Boston last night.  Mostly because i thought this would be a close game.  I still had Detroit winning but by 5 or less.  After some researc today, i am locked in with a ONE UNIT play on DET -5 (-125)

GL

u got my word,comrad!!!!

Well guys, we did it!  Last night the Spurs cashed for the MONSTER play and I'm an imprezive 6-0 in the conference finals this year!  We're locked and loaded and ready to keep it rolling tonight.

Tonight is not going to be anywhere near the size play as yesterday.  For some odd reason, I've noticed a trend in all the ATS winners I have hit so far.  It seems that the team that covers a particular game will fail to cover the next game.  This is the case in both the east and the west.  I don't know why that is and I havn't been betting thinking that would be the case, but it is what it is. 

Tonight the public is having a tough time picking sides as it is almost a 50/50 split.  So I won't be able to fade the public tonight which means a very small sized play.  Tonight I'm taking the Pistons -6 for a couple of reasons.  The biggest reason is they really don't want to go down 3-1 and head back to Boston.  It would pretty much be done and over with if that was the case.  The other reason I like Detroit tonight is the alternating ATS cover trend I pointed out in the previous paragraph.  It's not much, but hey it's something.  I don't feel too strongly about my pick tonight, because the Pistons sometimes fail to show up.  But tonight, I expect them to show up. 

Taking Pistons -6 tonight for 1 Bill

Let's improve that conference final ATS record to 7-0 guys!!!!!!!!!  GL!

under... cant touch spread

my balls are too small

As it was said many times already...Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS this season when playing AT HOME after a HOME LOSS.  They are 1-0 in the playoffs, beating Philly in Game 2 big time.  Since that seems to be the big stat going into this game, I decided to take a look at those games in which they came back and won, and break them down.  Here is what I came up with:

The major reason why Detroit was able to win those games so convincingly is because of one reason and one reason alone....REBOUNDING.  In those 4 games they outrebounded their opponents by an average of 14.5 rebounds per game.  They also had more offensive rebounds in 3 of those 4 games, averaging an incredible 14 OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS per game.  What these stats also obviously led to was more points in the paint...a stat that the Pistons won in 3 of those 4 games...the only game they didn't have more points in the paint was vs. the Spurs, who get a majority of their points down low.

If you look at those games where they came back and won the game SU and ATS...they didn't shoot particularly well except against the Sixers, and they didn't force an incredible amount of turnovers.  They dominated the boards, and got a lot of 2nd chance points and points in the paint.

Now for the good part.  THE PISTONS HAVEN'T OUT-REBOUNDED THE CELTICS OR SCORED MORE POINTS IN THE PAINT IN ANY OF THEIR 6 GAMES THIS SEASON!!! 

They have been out-boarded by the Celtics on average 42.8 to 34 and have been obliterated inside by an average of 38 to 22.  So basically, you are asking them to erase a 9 rebound advantage and also eliminate 16 points in the paint for this game. 

The Pistons were in the lead at the half in 3 of those games, with an average lead of 11 points.  There was an average of 94.5 points scored in the first half of those games as well...exaggerated slightly by the 56-45 halftime score in the game against the Bobcats.  The only game to go OVER the total out of those 4?  The playoff game in Round 1 vs. the Sixers where the Pistons hit a crazy 56% of their shots.

Everyone expects the Pistons to come out and magically heal Billups and get Tayshaun Prince's shot back, and somehow slow down KG and the Boston bench.  But I'll side with the numbers here.  Pistons haven't had more rebounds or more points in the paint this season against the Celtics, and I haven't seen any indication that they are going to shoot 56% from the field in this game.

Boston +6  2 units
UNDER 176  2 units
Detroit Team Total UNDER 91  2 units
Boston ML  1 unit

Boston +11
UNDER 181   2 units


Prediction:

Pistons   42   Celtics  42   Halftime

Celtics   87   Pistons  82  Final

boston +6

 Almost forgot Detroit is 3-0 after a loss of that many at home.