Trump Tariffs

@wallstreetcappers

Just like the scoreboard operator in a football stadium. 

Team X scores a TD and successful PAT, and he punches up 7 pts on the board.

Same thing. 

However, across various social media and conservative websites, a partisan conspiracy theorist who doesn't like the numbers that companies send in for BLS to tabulate/report [because it makes der Führer of the MAGA-cult] look like a failure, will of course push the conspiracies in a disingenuous attempt to defend the fascist/racist/sex-offender/convicted felon.

@wallstreetcappers

 No sir.  
You simply want to make it partisan when it is not. 
This was before Trump even got in office.  

Again, if you want to understand their issues and processes simply go read the two reports I referenced.  They are all source data online that anyone can read.  You do not need a deep understanding of the minutiae to grasp it.  
Trust me they know far more about how to fix it than you do; they just have not done it. 

The recession was called before this all came to light.  That was the whole point of even Powell saying he knew he could no longer trust the data over there.  
But, yet again, this is a backward looking number to see where we were at the time.  
But it does play into the FED’s decision back then.  Now they are solidly booby trapped because of being too late and reactionary.  

So, if you want to make it partisan by bringing Trump up — like you do on every single issue; then, yes, you can say Trump was right once again.  

You do not need a 3-4 month rolling average to tell you that their numbers have been off compared to the 10 year average.  
That is the whole point in the reports from two years ago — BEFORE Trump.  
Now, you can see that their own report AND the DoL report both pointed these things out AND they were not addressed.  
This is the logical outworkings of a very poorly run bureaucracy at the WORST possible time.  

Now, the second issue is the poor economy for the last 2-4 years.  This would have been even more obvious if that agency along with others would do a better job.  Now you have the likelihood of stagflation coming into the picture because of ineptitude and incompetence.  
So, Trump was also right to fire her.  

But I would not get hung up on that sole issue for the reason the FED was not addressing some of this.  They failed on other points as well.  

But when you do not provide them with accurate numbers and do not highlight the government hirings and the illegals, etc.  Then you are handcuffing Biden and his administration and the FED.  Trump is at least trying to stop that.  Certainly some of it is self-serving.  But he is correct to try to fix it.  

He is also correct that it is not the FED’s job to ‘anticipate’.  Their job is to adjust in real time with current reflective data.

I know you get tired of me telling you this.  But you really should study up on this stuff and learn the nuances of it.   
As I said the imputation and transparency and interpretative measures issues have been widely discussed for a while now.

Otherwise, it looks like you just have a superficial grasp of the issue and do not fully get what is done and expected in some of these departments.

But my main issue with this whole rigmarole was the recession issue being a rolling recession.  The jobs numbers and what they include and how they are presented and interpreted are a small part of it.

AGAIN, the jobs numbers are a backward looking data set.  So, they are not the main issue or my main point with the point about the economy.

The earnings, inflation and the debt, etc. play a larger role to me.  
But you can argue whether the Biden administration knew it or not — the bottom line is the economy was bad and worse than folks were led to believe.  
I am not so sure I agree with his point about the trough being around ‘Liberation Day’.  But it will be very interesting how it plays out going forward.

The FED does not make decisions off a lousy BLS report alone, so why are you suggesting that the always inaccurate and always revised BLS data is the cause for the FED holding rates as they have? I'd say that the UE rate is very low on the scale of what they determine is cause for raising or lowering rates and especially ALONE. Do you actually think that the FED looks at a month to month report based on surveys and decides to shape monetary policy off a what 1-2% participation rate of SURVEYS?

Trump has not been right about anything, we are not in a recession even remotely enough to offset inflation, the UE numbers are square in the range they have been and are not materially out of any historical range that would cause the FED to take action. I give the FED more credit to research and understanding of all economic markers than I do to Trump who if we are lucky scans the script 5 seconds before he wanders poetic about whatever is on his mind. The FED knows what they are doing and lowering rates given the issues Trump brought to the center is not going to happen barring a massive outlier on GDP or inflation, the UE number would have to go to 10-15% to be material on its own and that isnt going to happen.

Why are you and Trump demanding ZIRP as to a means to spur economic growth? The current FED funds rate is smack in the middle of historic levels and actually low if you strip out the stupid ZIRP that Trump got addicted to the first time, this level is crack in the middle of what it has been since the 1990s, for sure not extremely high and actually quite appropriate given the tariff mess Trump made and the lack of reduction in core inflation AND the high price of real estate and investment markets.

The way to smooth out choppy data is to take a longer sample of time, go 3-4 months and report a 3-4 month rolling average, you will see the swings iron out and the data will be much more smooth given that this SURVEY is such a small sample size and there is no recourse if someone participates or not, it is ELECTIVE.

Watching Trump cry about ZIRP shows that he cannot stimulate anything without a crutch, none of his economic promises have remotely hit the mark and so he has to resort to petty threats and blame oriented temper tantrums.

@wallstreetcappers

 The FED does not make decisions off a lousy BLS report alone 

Correct.  But they still use all of them as supplementary and complimentary.  
Again, that is why Powell pointed out that he could not trust the numbers. 
They do have to rely on something to help them with that half of their mandate and it needs to be realtime reflective and accurate as possible. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Trump has not been right about anything

@wallstreetcappers

 the UE numbers are square

Not just the UE — look everywhere else.  And I mean just about everywhere else. 
Except where…?

@wallstreetcappers

 The FED knows what they are doing

They don’t, and haven’t for a long time.  

@wallstreetcappers

 The way to smooth out choppy data is to take a longer sample of time, go 3-4 months and report a 3-4 month rolling average

You understand this is done already by a lot of folks.  Plus the BLS has a rotating 1/3s set up anyway.  But any decent researcher can find this and the FED certainly had it.  You do not need to be an economist to do that — IF that is what you want to do.  
But a large part of this is inherent to their process anyway.  
It is not as if they are SOLELY a data collector.  
They have data scientists that look at the data and they use algorithms along with the imputations that they do.  They are even algorithms designed to help them parse out the numbers to a presentable figure.  
This is not just a tally.  That is why the guy with the quote was being so tongue-in-cheek about it.  
His point was they collect all of this data and then cannot even analyze it with all of the economists, statisticians, and computers they have. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Watching Trump cry about ZIRP shows that he cannot stimulate anything without a crutch, none of his economic promises have remotely hit the mark

That, of course, is still to be determined.  
He will need the support of everyone to get his agenda and budget going next year, and that includes the FED and he knows this.

I am optimistic some of the things will work out even better than his first term.  
With the reconciliation done now and depending on his first budget, I am hopeful he can get the economy back on track to where it was the first term. 
But I do think the next few months are going to be very critical.  
I think Trump realizes that now the FED is going to be reacting too late.  Then what do you do if the stagflation does set in.  
But I think more of it is that he has different advisors this time around and it is going to be interesting to see how the supply/demand policy switch is going to work out.  The country has never really had that sort of switch before.  

But if his guys will stop getting into fistfights with each other and unite on the policy, then things may be fine.  

Been reading this thread for a while and had two questions that I didn't see:

1) does he has authority to fire her?

2) Is she under contract or at will?

Just curious cause there is emphasis on should or shouldn't with nothing on can or cannot.  

@Raiders22

 The problem is your guy campaigned on EASY and FAST solutions, he has done absolutely nothing thus far, he set the bar and he has not even come close to any of his instant day one stupid nonsense jawboning and that is on HIM not on the FED or Biden or anyone else, it was repeated flippant ignorant statements of fact that were never going to happen. He needs to own his mouth and his awful performance and not fire some BLS head or threaten to fire anyone like Powell and use his slobby lazy bully tactics instead of being professional and do the job he was elected to do and not play blame games and deflection.

The FED will not move rates based on any BLS print outside a multiple standard deviation outlier, the UE numbers are not out of range and really have little value in the cry fest Trump is using for why rates are not lower. If he wants lower rates then he should not have done these stupid tariffs and kick chaos every day, try being presidential and bring economic growth as he promised.

The BLS sends surveys, companies fill out surveys, they return surveys, the BLS staff take the DATA from the COMPANIES and total the figures and report the figures that the COMPANIES send in, they are data collectors and there is nothing they can do to manipulate surveys that COMPANIES fill out independently. Why you keep trying to slip in false comments and narratives is laughable, they cannot generate, create, manufacture, manipulate or distort survey data as they do not OWN it, they do not create it they do nothing more than SCOREBOARD operate the data they receive from COMPANIES.

Precisely!! 

@unplucked_gem

For now, yes.  The SC ruled that they could be fired without cause by the President.  
However, the FED chair is looked at differently and is not just an advisory board but a private entity. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Sure, time will tell if it comes to fruition.  
I think it could be better than the first time if things fall into place.  

A bit more than simply collecting data and tallying it.

For example:

“The important thing is to realize that revisions are not a bug. They’re a feature, right? The BLS tries three different times to get employers to report how many jobs they have and sometimes the employers can’t report it right away. So, the BLS imputes the number from behavior of other people, other companies like them, and history,” Groshen said on CNN on Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates unemployment at the national level through various processes, including unit nonresponse adjustment, item nonresponse adjustment, monthly benchmarking and estimation, automatic outlier detection, birth and death model estimation, estimates review and outlier selection, alignment, and seasonal adjustment.

@Raiders22

 TY

Some of this is typical of these jobs in various fields:

Data scientists typically do the following:

• Determine which data are available and useful for the project
• Collect, categorize, and analyze data
• Create, validate, test, and update algorithms and models
• Use data visualization software to present findings
• Make business recommendations to stakeholders based on data analysis

To properly analyze the data, these scientists must “clean” the raw data, a process by which they structure the data to make them readable by software programs.

Data scientists develop algorithms (sets of instructions that tell computers what to do) and models to support programs for machine learning. They use machine learning to classify or categorize data or to make predictions related to the models. Scientists also must test the algorithms and models for accuracy, including for updates with newly collected data.

@wallstreetcappers

@Raiders22

 Adjustments based on WHAT Raiders...if they make seasonal or non responsive adjustments this shows two things, one is that the process is absurd because it is elective and very small sample size and TWO that adjustments are based on PREVIOUS DATA REPORTED BY COMPANIES...sheesh.

@wallstreetcappers

 That is where the 1/3s and additional information comes in and their evaluations.  There are some assumptions made, such as the situation is the same for those that have not reported yet as those that have reported.  
But additional things are looked at like the seasonal adjustments.  But also inflation keys and new benchmarking is done.  Then they use their statistical methods and essentially do what is called a regression analysis and/or a time series analysis.  
They then provide a new number that is revised.

The problem is that the ‘new’ statistical models they are using seem to be lacking.  They are either leaving something out or not compensating enough.  Some assumptions appear to have been made since it was changed that are not in line with the revisionist numbers in the past.  

That is the reason so many folks think it is ‘intentional’.  I tend to think it is is simply ineptitude and incompetence over there.

A case maybe can be made that the new algorithms are actually more accurate than in the past on the updates.  But that begs the question on why they are not more accurate on the initial numbers.  

A lot of good in depth reading can be found on this if you are interested in what all that goes into it. 

sums it up quite well   

Also, America is a brand and a business! You need to borrow money, you need to sell stuff, etc. Would you invest in a business where you feared they tampered with the numbers? I sure as hell wouldn't - I wouldn’t even do it in a business where they showed it was a path they were willing to take. Every investor will have to take that fear into account when setting rates, whether corruption comes into tuition or not.

Yale budget lab estimates Trump tariffs could push nearly 900,000 Americans into poverty by 2026.  Tariffs tend to harm low income families the hardest.  Average tariff rate is the highest since 1935.

@wallstreetcappers

 How about you move to another forum and put somebody neutral in your place? Sick of your progressive comments.

You're teetering 

NEUTRAL?