Trump Tariffs

@Raiders22

 Callet is like a round more oval chocolate chip which is not as common but is considered more artisan and to me is far superior to any domestic chocolate chip type product including most mid to high tier US chocolate. The brand I mentioned before has different tiers based on cocoa percentage etc.

RD is Restaurant Depot its where most mom and pop places purchase all their goods for their restaurant from produce to meat to cheese to paper products almost anything commonly used in a restaurant and most often cheaper than say Sysco because there is no delivery fee you go there and pull a massive cart around their warehouse and check out yourself. 

Similar to tariffs, Trump $100,000 fee on foreign worker visa adds to cost of business.  Economists warn that undermining legal immigration risks lower economic growth, employment but higher inflation.  

@wallstreetcappers

 Very cool 

@Rush51

One thing I will add is that I often say that Europe can be a sort of leading indicator on some of the issues the USA is facing, or will face soon, with cultural issues.  But I think a good case can be made that the same can be said for economic issues as well.

The GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2008 in Britain.  The taxes are higher.  Which means people have less money 

One reason that Europe is struggling is the worsening economic situation and part of the reason for all of the movements right now.

In 2014, I am sure it is even worse now, the EU had 12% of the world’s population, 25% of the world’s GDP, and 50% of the welfare spending.  And the economy is not growing.

Until they get rid of the obsession with net-zero, millions of people on unemployment because they are a little bit anxious or depressed this will carry on.  Because people are poorer they are frustrated with mass immigration and especially illegal immigration.  Like one guy said, he is a single father and works very hard, yet he sees people being put up in hotels.  

If the economy was growing rapidly, or even decently, you can cover up these things.

If people had more money and things were going great, they would not be so stirred up over all of these things.  But that is not what is happening.  So, this is really beginning to swell up into a big problem.  

So, the government now has to get the economy growing as well as address all of the cultural issues.  Otherwise, the extremes will inevitably arise.  This is not even taking into account the huge fertility rate problem and its discrepancies.

Some of this will eventually show up more and more in the USA, and I think the debt issue will only exacerbate the cultural problems along with the economic concerns.

Higher inflation? 

but, but, but,   Trump promised to lower inflation!!

Hey he said my electric bill will be cut in half within 1 year.  Hes got 4 months to keep his promise which am sure he will, cause his promises are golden.

If that new Miran guy in the FED gets his way - you are in for one hell of a ride - then the inflation procentage will easily more than double, maybe even triple almost instantaneously (within a month)

There is a distinct possibility of that... 

very tough job    am not applying

More tariffs announced by the moron in the Oval

If Tariffs are so bad for an economy , why do 170 countries have tariffs on US Products ?

Not only that lunacy but he claims his tariffs against foreign trucks is to protect the US truck industry.

To protect the US truck industry  

The US truck industry is upset about der Fuhrer's tariffs on steel and aluminum - WHICH ARE HARMING THE US TRUCK INDUSTRY!!! 

@Barbarossa

 Countries impose tariffs to protect domestic industry and generate tax revenue.  But economists generally consider high tariffs bad for the US.  Increasing inflation and unemployment.  Decreasing standard of living and economic growth.  Average global tariff rate is 2.6%.  Under Trump administration, average US tariff rate increases from 1.5% to 27% the highest rate in a century.  

$100,000 visa for foreign worker is part of Trump administration anti-economic growth policy.  Since many firms cannot afford $100,000 visa, brain drain is likely to harm US productivity.  Making it harder to hire skilled positions could risk firms offshoring operations rather than hiring US workers.

@thirdperson

 I think H1 visas are a crutch and a scam and are very harmful to the US economy, it has weakened the middle class and led to higher profits for US corps and lower wages to the US worker.

To combat the offshoring there should be negative consequences for doing so, much like this exist in Europe where in some countries the tariffs and taxes for offshoring are quite extreme in order to support the local economy and job base.

If Trump were serious about middle class jobs and earnings he would have a yearly H1 cost and have to be very high and have offshoring be tariffed and targeted. There are more than enough US workers especially when there is motivation for opportunity with good paying jobs, this myth of a lack of specialized workers is a scam.

I have a friend who works in the IT industry and works for one of the offshoring giants who supply H1 workers to tech companies locally here and over the years we have discussed this topic multiple times and to him the sole root of the need for H1 workers is to lower the cost of labor, the H1 workers that come here are new and inexperienced often with fake education and work experience but they are able to exist due to the ecosystem in the H1 environment where their superiors up train them and others assist in areas of weakness to develop skills. I found that most experienced and seasoned H1 people I knew got OUT of the H1 queue because they knew that their wages were inferior to the tune of 40-50% what market rate was so they would fulfill their H1 requirements (they sign a contract for X years of work in exchange for sponsorship and success in getting their green card) and they seek citizenship away from the H1 system to make more money.

Its always about a cheaper labor pool and it is not really about skilled experienced workers IMO

@wallstreetcappers

 Well if you remember Trump increased the denial rate in his first term to, eventually, over quadruple what it had been in the previous several years.

But then several groups took him to court and had the policies overturned using a quasi-anti-immigration stance coupled with a lack of skilled citizens, etc.  The denial rate then returned to their previous lows and stayed that way through the Biden administration, because they refused to address the issue.  

Congress and the courts simply did not want to address this and wanted to deny Trump this tactic.  They are also beholden to the few big businesses that use the overwhelming majority of these visas for workers.

There is absolutely a dearth of STEM-skilled citizens.  This is because they do not go into these fields as much for many reasons.  Whereas, by definition, the visa-students and workers are almost solely going into them.

There have been many programs at the lower-education levels that have tried to encourage kids to get into these fields.  But this has not been effective enough.  With these fields growing, the demand for skilled folks in these fields is simply going to continue to out-strip the supply if something is not done.

It is very hard to get kids interested in something that is boring to them even if the upside is more money and better opportunities.  They are already too far behind the other countries that put a huge emphasis on STEM areas and education overall.

I did not agree with the restrictions that much when Trump did it the first time.  I understand he was using any and all tools he felt he could to address the immigration problem.  He might have actually felt it would help jumpstart the folks to get into the available fields and jobs that would open up.  

But I think it really hurts the companies, the country, the economy, and the students overall to do this right now without a backfill of qualified folks.

Otherwise, you get into the same situation where the DEI programs have a perception of lowering the level of skillset.  Then you couple that with a sense of the education standard in the USA having been lowered so much already and you have a longterm problem.

I agree that something must be done if these jobs are to stay in the USA and are to be supplied by USA citizens.

Much more has to be done.  I think it needs to be a multi-pronged approach.  But the bottomline is that if you cannot encourage folks to be interested in the fields and elite enough in them -- the companies simply lag behind if the cannot go elsewhere for workers.

It is the polar opposite of the folks that WANT the lower-skilled illegal workers to come to the USA to pay them lower wages.  BUT they do NOT want the higher-skilled workers to legally come to the country to pay them lower wages.  Some jobs they claim they do not want to do (but really will and do); other jobs they claim they would do if allowed (but are not trying to and are not skilled enough and do not do).  These folks are generally the same people that openly want illegal workers to pay cheap (where citizens would be a drop in efficiency) but do not want legal workers to pay cheap in fields (where there would be a rise in overall efficiency).

Many, many parts of this multi-layered issue(s) need to be addressed at several levels.  

But jumping right in and denying the visas is not the right way to go to me.

I wouldnt deny the visas I would charge a large tax on them and use the funds for something like diversity scholarships to help develop the skills that these fake H1 companies think exist in the US. I do not agree that there is a dearth of workers personally and especially knowing the people I do in the tech industry down here and the way these multi BILLION dollar companies suck out the wages from US workers and profit from it themselves. Companies like NTT and Infosys profit off the difference between what they charge companies and the cut rate that the employees receive.

One very specific example (I have more) a friend of ours came over on a H1 visa (there are different tiers of H1 btw) to work for a company I will not name and was paid 50% less than a comp US employee and this company over a ten year period transitioned from US workers to H1 workers to the point that the H1 company had a specific location inside the US company plant just for these workers when before it was zero H1 at the beginning. This company moved more and more towards H1 employees because the company does not directly pay benefits or actually interact with the employee. So said company now cuts a check to the H1 company and the H1 company does the rest and keeps a markup as profit. This worker was contractually obligated to work for the H1 company while they were on temporary visa and working to get a full H1 then for X years afterwords. He earned less wages and when his term was up he left the H1 company and went to a different company and had a 40% increase in salary at the new company.

H1 corps like Infosys are sucking the cash out from the US worker, US corps pay less and do not give benefits in return and the real cost of this scheme is to the US worker and I would suggest offshoring or H1 schemes should be heavily taxed so corps like Infosys will not be able to survive.

@wallstreetcappers

 @Raiders22

Both of your points are valid, and aren't really counter to each other.

Absolutely they are doing it for cheaper wages.  But they are also doing it for skilled workers and more efficiency.  

Cheap labor alone is not reason enough to do it as much as possible.

If you assume the main two things are cost of labor and skill/efficiency (whether they are or not is not the issue) then you have to assume there is a balance somewhere that would make a company do it that offsets the costs and makes them more competitive.

The logical conclusions are at some point wages outweigh efficiency or skills; skills outweigh wages; or they are equal.

If a company can get a better and more skilled/efficient workers cheaper then why is it a problem in the STEM fields but not in the vegetable fields.  This train of logic has to be reconciled at some point.  

The USA has worker programs for both sets of fields.

But there is no doubt anecdotal examples of qualified citizens and companies not using them I am sure.

But absolutely no reliable study has shown that there is not a serious lack of STEM students and workers in the USA.  This has been the case for quite some time and many things have been done to try to remedy it.  They simply have not worked enough, yet.

The other issue is that even if there were students and workers to hire in the STEM fields they simply are not as good.  The studies also reflect this and no anecdotal examples can overcome these two problems.

At some point the money saved by cheaper wages is offset by higher wages IF the skillset is better (even taking out the politics of hiring citizens only).

If companies could hire more skilled, more efficient citizens and not have to pay to sponsor visas -- they would do it.  The supply is simply not there.

The logical extreme to see how it would play out is if one company was allowed or 'forced' to hire only visa workers and another company was allowed or 'forced' to hire only citizens.  Even visa workers will transfer to other companies that pay higher because their skillset/efficiency is in demand over others -- citizens or not. 

These jobs are very much inter-related and word of mouth.  If you are a known overachiever you are in demand, citizen or not.

The difference in our views is that you have listened to the argument made by the H1 corps like Infosys that say they bring in skilled labor so there is a lack of skilled labor. My vantage point is from someone IN the industry WORKING for one of those H1 companies in the being a liaison between the tech company and the H1 company, so this guy works for the H1 in a management role and is responsible for negotiating the contracts with the tech companies, hiring and developing the pipeline of alleged "skilled" workers from India specifically and handling all the messy issues that exist with this type of setup.

This individual who IS from India and was involved IN the H1 scheme at the origin of its existance (late 90s era) came over did his time got his citizenship when it was easier to transition from temp to GC and now works on the other side of the equation where HE brings the people over and works with the corps and negotiates the rates and is responsible for the profitability of the H1 corp (like Infosys). I know probably 50 Indian workers who are in this ecosystem and some are still in, some got in and out and are on their own now either working using their GC or got citizenship and most got out and started making more money being a full employee versus the H1 style which is almost like a contract employee status.

It is his opinion that the narrative from corps like Infosys is to exist they need to frame that the US lacks workers because if not then how can they scheme the visa system and exist? He does not think there is a lack of qualified US workers but does think that US corps are moving in that direction because they do not need to pay as much they do not offer benefits or some of the admin required so that layer of management is also removed and taken on by the H1 corp. The tech industry survived before this scheme came around and it would survive without it. 

He would tell me that most workers came from the school system in India which is quite different than the US university system and that most would bone up on the required programs to get the jobs but did not receive the comprehensive education that a US student would and they would work in India to get experience enough to support project experience and that many workers lie about the depth of their skills and depth of project experience and then if the worker came to the US and did not cut it they would shift the worker around to another client and get them training working for someone else with the aid of other H1 workers.

My opinion is the entire enterprise is a cheat and a scam and is designed to push out US workers from middle class jobs and reduce overhead, there is very little gained from a skill set or experience perspective. This comes from my interaction with actual workers from industry not a narrative pushed by the corps seeking to validate their existence. 

I have been involved in it as well and it is true.  The reasons for it vary and are not being addressed adequately enough.

I understand there are examples of 'bad' visa workers.  Just as I understand there are examples of 'good' USA worker that are not hired.

BUT overall there is a problem and has been for a very long time of not enough qualified USA workers.

You simply cannot swerve this and dismiss it by a few isolated anecdotal examples. 

For example:

https://bramsonort.edu/2024/10/17/is-the-u-s-lagging-in-stem-education-examining-key-factors/

https://www.aei.org/education/american-students-stem-aptitude-is-at-an-all-time-low/

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/01/17/half-of-americans-think-young-people-dont-pursue-stem-because-it-is-too-hard/

These issues have to be addressed at this level to start with.  

You cannot 'force' companies to hire inferior workers just to do it.  

Yes, if there are blatant examples where they are doing it to save money only -- that should be addressed as well.

BUT your presupposition that there are plenty, or enough, STEM students that are skilled to hire is just wrong.

No one that studies the industries agree with that assessment anywhere.

There is a reason USA students do not win STEM competitions.

His point about the fact that they concentrate on those particular studies in some countries is true.  Just as it is true that they do not even attempt to do it in the USA.  I do not agree that they are not getting comprehensive education because of this.  They still out-test the USA on various other subjects such as geography or general knowledge.  But per capita and other such things, other countries play a large role, India simply has numbers.

Then look at the companies that are employing them the most: Amazon, META, Microsoft.  These companies simply to save money.  They are massive.  But they need more skilled workers and the outreach across the globe does not hurt either.  They are also getting the benefits as well. 

So, it is a very dynamic situation.  But the bottomline is that these huge companies NEED the workers.

I will also add that his contention that they do not need to pay the visa workers as much as the citizens is also just incorrect.  

These can actually cost more because of the added fees and things.  They also have to pay the prevailing wage.

So, he is really just wrong about it being more the cost than the overall lack of qualified USA workers.

Absolutely, they are exceptions.  Maybe his company is an exception.  But overall that is not the case.