{{{{Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis}}}}
Oh absolutely. I was merely saying that if Joe Gamblers were betting solely based on the polls and the polls favored Obama, that would impact the line.
I cannot imagine at this early stage, however, that small money is impacting the lines. Your thoughts?
{{{{Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis}}}}
Oh absolutely. I was merely saying that if Joe Gamblers were betting solely based on the polls and the polls favored Obama, that would impact the line.
I cannot imagine at this early stage, however, that small money is impacting the lines. Your thoughts?
Note the descrepancy here:
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Then:
Pollsters can't even get exit polling right. There is no "margin of error" or "sample size" in betting markets, and my education and experience have taught me they are flawed bullshit anyway,
Note the descrepancy here:
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Then:
Pollsters can't even get exit polling right. There is no "margin of error" or "sample size" in betting markets, and my education and experience have taught me they are flawed bullshit anyway,
a poll will tell you who somebody wants to win, the gambling market will tell you who they think they will win. Make somebody accountable for who they think will win (ie money) and then watch what decision they make.
So? This presumes the people betting know what they are doing.
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Really? You're not a linesmaker and what would you base this on? Remember, you don't look at polls.
a poll will tell you who somebody wants to win, the gambling market will tell you who they think they will win. Make somebody accountable for who they think will win (ie money) and then watch what decision they make.
So? This presumes the people betting know what they are doing.
I have it currently priced as a -225/+225 race
Really? You're not a linesmaker and what would you base this on? Remember, you don't look at polls.
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