{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
if we assume those bets are made based on polls. i can't imagine people would bet enough money to move the lines at pinnacle based on unreliable poling data but if they are, clearly they aren't looking at the same polls 14daroad is based on the movement.
{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
if we assume those bets are made based on polls. i can't imagine people would bet enough money to move the lines at pinnacle based on unreliable poling data but if they are, clearly they aren't looking at the same polls 14daroad is based on the movement.
Survey USA polled registered voters in the key swing state [Florida] and put Ryan’s favorability rating at a +11, 43/32 His best numbers come from seniors at 53/30, who also have the highest familiarity with Ryan’s economic proposals (81 percent). Fifty-nine percent of Floridians rated the choice of Ryan as excellent (28 percent) or good (31 percent), with 75 percent of seniors agreeing. Overall, a majority of registered voters in Florida (57 percent) say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Romney, including 64 percent of seniors – and 62 percent of those under 35 years of age.
Survey USA polled registered voters in the key swing state [Florida] and put Ryan’s favorability rating at a +11, 43/32 His best numbers come from seniors at 53/30, who also have the highest familiarity with Ryan’s economic proposals (81 percent). Fifty-nine percent of Floridians rated the choice of Ryan as excellent (28 percent) or good (31 percent), with 75 percent of seniors agreeing. Overall, a majority of registered voters in Florida (57 percent) say Ryan makes them more likely to vote for Romney, including 64 percent of seniors – and 62 percent of those under 35 years of age.
{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
So what you are saying is the line would be -110 counting the juice and more people are laying money on Obama than Romney.
This then goes to what I was asking in the second part of my post: Do you think this mean that professional gamblers are more liberal (betting on the person they want to win because they like his ideas better) or they use the polls to determine who they will bet on or is it something else or a combination of everything?
{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
So what you are saying is the line would be -110 counting the juice and more people are laying money on Obama than Romney.
This then goes to what I was asking in the second part of my post: Do you think this mean that professional gamblers are more liberal (betting on the person they want to win because they like his ideas better) or they use the polls to determine who they will bet on or is it something else or a combination of everything?
I have said for years that smart and non-emotionally driven gamblers can make a lot of money betting politics. It was much better when matchbook was around because there was no juice and there were also emotionally driven gamblers who would lay or take lines that would not be offered at sportsbooks.
As far as who is betting now, that presents a good question. I cannot say whether people are thinking the general news polls that we see are leading to money coming in for Obama or whether the incumbant favoritism is keeping money coming in as well. I can say that if one presumes the media is slanted left and thus, the polls usually cited by the media are also slanted left, that could account for an inflated line if people are relying solely on the polls.
I said before that any real professional or smart political gambler would know that more money is going to come in when the exposure is heightened. That is why the convention for the Repubs (which goes first) will lead to more money on Romney, thus driving the line down to try and get Obama money.
I have said for years that smart and non-emotionally driven gamblers can make a lot of money betting politics. It was much better when matchbook was around because there was no juice and there were also emotionally driven gamblers who would lay or take lines that would not be offered at sportsbooks.
As far as who is betting now, that presents a good question. I cannot say whether people are thinking the general news polls that we see are leading to money coming in for Obama or whether the incumbant favoritism is keeping money coming in as well. I can say that if one presumes the media is slanted left and thus, the polls usually cited by the media are also slanted left, that could account for an inflated line if people are relying solely on the polls.
I said before that any real professional or smart political gambler would know that more money is going to come in when the exposure is heightened. That is why the convention for the Repubs (which goes first) will lead to more money on Romney, thus driving the line down to try and get Obama money.
So what you are saying is the line would be -110 counting the juice and more people are laying money on Obama than Romney.
This then goes to what I was asking in the second part of my post: Do you think this mean that professional gamblers are more liberal (betting on the person they want to win because they like his ideas better) or they use the polls to determine who they will bet on or is it something else or a combination of everything?
no, if i understand you right. are you talking about the opening odds?
i also don't think the pinnacle odds say much about whether gamblers are liberal or conservative. i think people laying large bets on anything at a book like pinnacle are going to make the decisions based on more rational factors rather than who they like. i'm sure there is some movement based on some bets from people who like obama better but i can't imagine that would move the odds very much. maybe i'm giving the bettors too much credit but if io was betting on this, who i liked better would not factor into the betting decision in any way, just like which football team i liked better wouldn't factor into my decision to bet a game.
So what you are saying is the line would be -110 counting the juice and more people are laying money on Obama than Romney.
This then goes to what I was asking in the second part of my post: Do you think this mean that professional gamblers are more liberal (betting on the person they want to win because they like his ideas better) or they use the polls to determine who they will bet on or is it something else or a combination of everything?
no, if i understand you right. are you talking about the opening odds?
i also don't think the pinnacle odds say much about whether gamblers are liberal or conservative. i think people laying large bets on anything at a book like pinnacle are going to make the decisions based on more rational factors rather than who they like. i'm sure there is some movement based on some bets from people who like obama better but i can't imagine that would move the odds very much. maybe i'm giving the bettors too much credit but if io was betting on this, who i liked better would not factor into the betting decision in any way, just like which football team i liked better wouldn't factor into my decision to bet a game.
im an idiot i suppose but ive got an even money decent size gentlemens wager on romney with a friend. hes gonna be pissed off.
if you like romney to win this thing, the ods are great for you. i'm sure dj is right but there's still a nice window between now and the convention when the odds for romney seem to be getting higher and higher by the week.
im an idiot i suppose but ive got an even money decent size gentlemens wager on romney with a friend. hes gonna be pissed off.
if you like romney to win this thing, the ods are great for you. i'm sure dj is right but there's still a nice window between now and the convention when the odds for romney seem to be getting higher and higher by the week.
I don't know how much you know about sportsbooks or know how good they are at making odds on anything.
But, if you do bet sports ..I would bet a huge unit,that you do know:> As long as there was 0:01 when the ball was snapped, the play goes to conclusion.....................
I don't know how much you know about sportsbooks or know how good they are at making odds on anything.
But, if you do bet sports ..I would bet a huge unit,that you do know:> As long as there was 0:01 when the ball was snapped, the play goes to conclusion.....................
According to the CNN/ORC International survey, which was conducted entirely after Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket, 49% of registered voters in Wisconsin say they back President Barack Obama, with 45% supporting Romney. The president's four point advantage over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is within the survey's sampling error.
According to the CNN/ORC International survey, which was conducted entirely after Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket, 49% of registered voters in Wisconsin say they back President Barack Obama, with 45% supporting Romney. The president's four point advantage over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is within the survey's sampling error.
According to the CNN/ORC International survey, which was conducted entirely after Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket, 49% of registered voters in Wisconsin say they back President Barack Obama, with 45% supporting Romney. The president's four point advantage over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is within the survey's sampling error.
According to the CNN/ORC International survey, which was conducted entirely after Romney added Ryan to the GOP ticket, 49% of registered voters in Wisconsin say they back President Barack Obama, with 45% supporting Romney. The president's four point advantage over the presumptive Republican presidential nominee is within the survey's sampling error.
The first time in History a Presidential candidate and his Vice Presidential running mate from a major political party BOTH FAIL to carry their home States.
The first time in History a Presidential candidate and his Vice Presidential running mate from a major political party BOTH FAIL to carry their home States.
Amazing spiderboy, how you didnt say to read post 14, where i corrected myself. I guess you are perfect in life and never make an error. Some of you are so full of yourselves its unreal.
What is really troubling is how you pulled up a post about me from 2009, that clearly shows, like i have said before that you have hard drives filled with bookmarked posts from posters.
That is pretty damn freaky and all kidding a side you really should look into getting some serious mental help.
Anybody that book marks peoples posts on a gambling form, isnt dealing with a full deck. Your post could very well make you the biggest stalker this site has ever seen since Mets, right Mets
Amazing spiderboy, how you didnt say to read post 14, where i corrected myself. I guess you are perfect in life and never make an error. Some of you are so full of yourselves its unreal.
What is really troubling is how you pulled up a post about me from 2009, that clearly shows, like i have said before that you have hard drives filled with bookmarked posts from posters.
That is pretty damn freaky and all kidding a side you really should look into getting some serious mental help.
Anybody that book marks peoples posts on a gambling form, isnt dealing with a full deck. Your post could very well make you the biggest stalker this site has ever seen since Mets, right Mets
Obama's ratings on the economy are significantly worse than all three prior successful presidential incumbents at this same point in their first term, according to the available Gallup trends. His 36% approval rating on the economy is well below George W. Bush's rating in August 2004 (46%), Bill Clinton's in August 1996 (54%), and Ronald Reagan's in July 1984 (50%).
Obama's ratings on the economy are significantly worse than all three prior successful presidential incumbents at this same point in their first term, according to the available Gallup trends. His 36% approval rating on the economy is well below George W. Bush's rating in August 2004 (46%), Bill Clinton's in August 1996 (54%), and Ronald Reagan's in July 1984 (50%).
I don't think its the people betting at Pinnacle that don't understand polls
Well, considering the recent Fox & CBS polls over sampled Democrats by 7% and 9% respectively, I would stand by the assertion that the people at Pinnacle don't understand the polls.
I don't think its the people betting at Pinnacle that don't understand polls
Well, considering the recent Fox & CBS polls over sampled Democrats by 7% and 9% respectively, I would stand by the assertion that the people at Pinnacle don't understand the polls.
{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis
{{{{When linesmakers put a spread or moneyline down on a game they do so based on each team's performance on the field.
How do linemakers determine a line in an election?
Each candidate's ideas? or
What the linesmakers think will happen? or
Which candidate the linesmakers like politically? or
What the polls say? or
Is there something else?}}}}
It isn't linemakers; it is gamblers. Linesmakers only make the lines to attract equal action. They don't care who is supposed to win or who will win. They want equal action.
14 is correct to a certain extent; people who would be gambling on the election by solely relying on polls would theoretically be moving the line.
Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis
The only poll that really counts is the election. Don't trust polls. According to University of B.C. study, polls are less reliable than odds at sportbooks in accurately predicting future results. The reason is uncaring poll respondents have nothing to lose, but gamblers (who risk money) are more serious about being accurate.
The only poll that really counts is the election. Don't trust polls. According to University of B.C. study, polls are less reliable than odds at sportbooks in accurately predicting future results. The reason is uncaring poll respondents have nothing to lose, but gamblers (who risk money) are more serious about being accurate.
Not only does he keep hard drives filled with peoples posts, he actually has to remember what was talked about in each thread and where exactly to find that thread. Oh my God, this guy needs serious serious serious help.
Theres only one person capable of doing this kind of stalking and that would be AMAZING METS.
Not only does he keep hard drives filled with peoples posts, he actually has to remember what was talked about in each thread and where exactly to find that thread. Oh my God, this guy needs serious serious serious help.
Theres only one person capable of doing this kind of stalking and that would be AMAZING METS.
The first time in History a Presidential candidate and his Vice Presidential running mate from a major political party BOTH FAIL to carry their home States.
Nah, Illinois is almost assuredly going to back Zero. Pennsylvania on the other hand..................................
The first time in History a Presidential candidate and his Vice Presidential running mate from a major political party BOTH FAIL to carry their home States.
Nah, Illinois is almost assuredly going to back Zero. Pennsylvania on the other hand..................................
{{{{Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis}}}}
Oh absolutely. I was merely saying that if Joe Gamblers were betting solely based on the polls and the polls favored Obama, that would impact the line.
I cannot imagine at this early stage, however, that small money is impacting the lines. Your thoughts?
{{{{Prediction markets are mote accurate then polling data. Poll numbers are like looking at a box score - a nice talking point for TV and newspapers, but pretty much irrelevant when it comes to analysis}}}}
Oh absolutely. I was merely saying that if Joe Gamblers were betting solely based on the polls and the polls favored Obama, that would impact the line.
I cannot imagine at this early stage, however, that small money is impacting the lines. Your thoughts?
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