It is because the Russians are growing more and more tired of not having any gas - they have started stealing it from each other - and beat each other up for it - he will also make a big mobilisation in September - he has already closed all their borders - there is basically no chance 500.000 people that doesn’t want to fight won’t revolt at this point - esp. Because he has to also recruit from the children of the elite
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Past
Dec 31
11% chance
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5%
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25%
$15,529,389 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.
Rules
Market Context
Additional context
Updated Mar 18
This market's language has been updated for clarity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,530,470
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Source of betting book prop...
https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027
Someone just bet $400K on Putin losing power by year's end — and could pocket $2.5 million if it hits
Becky Robertson
Sat, July 4, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. EDT
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/someone-just-bet-400k-putin-130000222.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABzDz49uqZs5XC0ujH59xXV_6v73g2Ek-MooZ0-TzaZ9J0b1iJxMmt3l6NQUupeYF6AYrg7N6XwPwv01Ygsqz5-RRBl3wyjsAHHYBZjJAUc9Vlrj13ACN7yvirlqdKN04BvsiWSXtgNiawZN0jDY414JYmiRCojHfgctJhIzdunn
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/someone-just-bet-400k-putin-130000222.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABzDz49uqZs5XC0ujH59xXV_6v73g2Ek-MooZ0-TzaZ9J0b1iJxMmt3l6NQUupeYF6AYrg7N6XwPwv01Ygsqz5-RRBl3wyjsAHHYBZjJAUc9Vlrj13ACN7yvirlqdKN04BvsiWSXtgNiawZN0jDY414JYmiRCojHfgctJhIzdunn
Canadian correspondent states gambler wagered 400k for a 2.5 million payoff in this future event horizon market....
These betting markets are so corrupt, this is probably just a head fake bet, to get tons of people to start making that same exact bet, surpassing the 400k bet and then boom the bet loses.
Putin isnt getting kicked out of office and hes not giving up that power on his own, dictators like him just dont quit.
So unless that bet was made by his doctor who thinks he will die before that date, putin will be here on jan 1 2027
@nature1970
This was not a one-time play. But rather someone that built to this position over several days.
No, the odds have not dramatically moved.
They are currently around 11%. They went from 11-13% to 12-14% or so. But have since settled back down.
The liquidity is about $1M and the volume about $12M
So, if this wallet starts offloading if the price gets to 20-30% — then you could just say they were trading probability.
$400k to win $2.5M means they saw an implied probability of around 14-16%.
Now, they could have some solid reasoning for that. Maybe they are an expert in Russian politics.
Certainly whales can move prices in a lower-liquidity market like this easier. But that is a huge bluff to take — unless they have other ways to profit off of it, like holding positions elsewhere or planning to trade back later. But with a thin liquidity market there is that possibility, it is just unlikely. It is much less likely to be an attempt to manipulate the market because of that.
Because folks were certainly willing to sell it.
In fact, if you look at the graph and extrapolate his average, he is likely even down at this point even after news got out of the big position.
Whales do not necessarily have ‘insider’ information. In fact, they can be spectacularly wrong.
But for now it just looks like a ‘probability trader’ and not an ‘outcome trader’ or a ‘volatility trader’.
As to the thread in response to threats Putin has increased personal protection unit to 800 loyal officers.
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15947203/Paranoid-Putin-boosts-personal-protection-squad.html
News
108
Paranoid Putin boosts his personal protection squad to 800 officers amid assassination fears
108 comments
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5
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05:36 EDT 02 Jul 2026, updated 09:13 EDT 02 Jul 2026
By OLIVIA ALLHUSEN, FOREIGN NEWS REPORTER
See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source
Vladimir Putin has expanded the elite security unit tasked with protecting him amid mounting fears of assassination attempts.
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More than two dozen additional officers will be added to the central apparatus of Russia's Federal Protective Service (FSO), increasing its strength from 785 to 812.
It marks the fourth time Putin has strengthened the force since ordering the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as concerns over his personal safety have grown.
The move comes as the war in Ukraine continues, with Russian strikes on Kyiv killing at least 10 people and wounding more than 50 on Thursday.
The FSO is responsible for protecting Russia's senior leadership, with its duties ranging from guarding the president and his residences to securing state communications and accompanying him on official trips.
The agency is also responsible for protecting members of Putin's family and inner circle. The wider organisation is believed to employ more than 50,000 people.
The latest expansion, which came into force on Wednesday, follows years of steadily increasing security around the Kremlin leader.
PUTIN FINISHED? Kremlin Leader Reportedly Loses Consciousness During Public Speech
Shocking footage has reportedly spread around the world within minutes. According to the claim, during a public appearance today, Vladimir Putin suddenly lost consciousness in front of hundreds of people.
Eyewitnesses say it happened in the middle of a sentence. The Russian president reportedly stopped speaking, swayed noticeably, grabbed the podium for support, and suddenly turned pale. Seconds later, he allegedly lost consciousness and began to fall. Security personnel immediately surrounded the stage, caught him, and carried him out of the hall.
Doctors who were present at the event reportedly provided emergency medical assistance on the spot. The exact cause of the sudden episode has not been officially disclosed.
As usual, the Kremlin has remained silent. So far, there have been no detailed comments regarding Putin's health—only the familiar statement that "everything is under control."
Source free Ukraine press....
There have been genuine reports this year of Putin coughing during a speech and appearing unwell, which led to renewed speculation about his health, but that is very different from losing consciousness.
At this point I have seen no credible evidence of him losing consciousness during a speech.
I could see the Russians revolt and kill him before that date if his popularity keeps dropping like this ! The problem with the Russian population are they firmly believe the president can’t do anything wrong and they blame the elite for not advising him well enough (and a lot of them also blame us in the west and Ukraine still) - if they wake up from that spell he has over them - they will 100% kill him - I don’t think you guys realise how insane these people are - take the most insane person you have met (if you haven’t been to Russia) - times that with 100 - then you have the average Russian - they are literally beating each other to death right now over gas - I saw a video yesterday of a guy cutting a chicks tire and beat a sledgehammer into her front window while her toddler was in the car - because he thought she cut him in line
Also this is just gas shortage - imagine what will happen when winter comes and they haven’t been able to farm all summer (Putin isn’t priotizing the farming industry - it is the military and the elite that has his favoritism for fuel) - they will have food shortage like never seen before this autumn/winter if the gas situation isn’t fixed soon (none of their allies are big farming countries) they are as retarded as MAGA in thinking two steps ahead of what is happening to them right now ! This is going to be wild
China doesn’t want to officially help them unless Putin solve Ukraine (in a way we approve) because Europe is already planning to put economical sanctions on them - something that could pretty much ruin the entire Chinese economy ! I think that bet on Putin being gone this year has INSANE value - unless he stops his war in Ukraine - I would consider it a 50/50 - if he stops the war it would be around those odds given I would say
Russia owes China an estimated $130 billion to $169 billion, making it the single largest foreign borrower of Chinese capital.Because a significant portion of this financing flows through opaque state-owned banks, energy joint ventures, and hidden bilateral agreements, tracking the exact real-time figure is difficult. However, extensive tracking by research institutions provides a clear breakdown of the debt structure:Key Components of Russia's Debt to ChinaCumulative Historical Lending ($169.3 Billion): Tracking by research lab AidData via Yahoo Finance indicates that Russia accumulated over $169 billion in Chinese loans between 2000 and 2021, primarily driven by massive infrastructure and energy projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.Outstanding Debt Stock (~$130 Billion): Independent analyses estimate Russia's active outstanding debt to Beijing sits around $130 billion, which accounts for roughly 7.3% of Russia's total GDP.Yuan-Denominated Sovereign Bonds (20 Billion Yuan): To help cover its growing federal budget deficit amidst Western sanctions, the Russian Finance Ministry officially launched its first-ever domestic yuan-denominated government bonds, selling 20 billion yuan (approx. $3.1 billion) to investors.The Nature of the Financial RelationshipThe financial dynamic between the two nations is deeply interconnected, though unique compared to other developing debtors:Commercial Terms over Aid: Unlike Chinese financing to low-income nations, loans to Russia are almost exclusively offered at higher, market-rate interest terms rather than concessional grants. China expects significant economic returns, typically secured via long-term energy and commodity supply guarantees.Banking Sector Exposure: Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions have heavily restricted Moscow's access to the global financial system. Consequently, China's four largest state-owned banks significantly multiplied their credit exposure to the Russian banking sector to keep cross-border trade flowing.A Mutual Balance Sheet: While Russia owes substantial debt to Chinese banks, it simultaneously holds roughly $140 billion in Chinese yuan bonds and assets within its Central Bank and National Wealth Fund. This asset pool serves as a vital financial cushion to help Russia bypass Western sanctions and settle bilateral trade in national currencies.
China is aquiring sibrian oil pipeline to involve war debt ...
As far as western sanctions Russia can trade rubble to yuan. Yaun to eu dollars or American dollars....
The strength of the yuan is held back by China...
Reflecting on the yuan and its credit risk status, the currency scores quite well. This may seem surprising, as news of major corporate defaults in China often dominate the headlines. However, were the yuan to assume a more significant role as a global reserve currency, Chinese government bonds would emerge as the primary instrument through which central banks invest. The Chinese government has a stellar reputation as a borrower with no modern historical defaults and a reliably high credit rating.
The yuan is also attractive from a currency risk perspective. Chinese government bond yields are consistently higher than similarly high-rated government bonds from advanced economies. As for exchange rate movements, the yuan is not free-floating like the monies of most major economies. Though the yuan is no longer pegged against the dollar, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) carefully manages the currency’s value, allowing it to float within a narrow range or “band.” This exchange rate management regularly exposes China to charges of currency manipulation from critics, especially those from the United States.
But a degree of predictability in the yuan’s value may actually appeal to investors. Many other emerging market currencies are prone to significant price swings. Thus, knowing that the PBOC will intervene to prevent the yuan’s value from becoming too hot or too cold could reassure otherwise wary official investors about diversifying into a new reserve currency.
In the 1970s and early-1980s, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve frequently intervened in foreign exchange markets to influence the dollar’s value against other major currencies. US management of its currency was never as prolific as China’s is today, but such behavior by a top reserve currency issuer has compelling precedent.
Turning next to liquidity risk, while the market for Chinese government bonds is considerably smaller than the market for US Treasuries, it still ranks as the third largest sovereign bond market in the world. Yet foreign investors make up only about 10 percent of the market. By comparison, nearly one-third of the US Treasury market involves foreign investors.
This difference reflects Chinese government policy, which has, historically, kept foreigners out of its financial markets. Prior to reforms in 2012 and 2015, foreign central banks interested in participating in onshore bond markets had to seek approval from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Once approved, their investments were capped by a set quota. Similar quotas remained in place for non-official institutional investors until 2019.
Since the global financial crisis, China’s capital account has moved in a liberalizing direction for foreign investors but at a slow and non-uniform pace. For residents in China, however, arcane capital controls—policies that restrict the movement of money out of China—remain the norm. Indeed, in 2015, amid a massive outflow of capital, Chinese officials clamped down on residential outflows with renewed vigor.
Herein lies a key challenge for the yuan’s global ambitions. China’s commitment to exchange rate stability would not hinder the yuan’s appeal so long as such efforts were realized through periodic intervention in foreign exchange markets (similar to the approach the United States used in decades past). However, in reality, capital controls remain a vital tool through which Beijing exerts control over the currency’s value.
Source. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/business-economics/what-is-holding-the-yuan-back-xi-is/
@Calde13 "Russian gas shortage"
Wall street journal reports that over 25% of Russian oil refining capacity is offline due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian news agency reports over 64,000 drones have been shot down. But Ukraine expects to produce more (10 million) drones in 2027? So far, more Russian soldiers have been killed because Russia likes to sacrifice soldiers at front line. Apparently, Ukraine ingenuity, sacrifice and determination are under estimated.
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