Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 35-18, +72.55
March Leans: 18-16
Interesting game, here. Reverting back to the other night, McNeese State is now rolling right along after getting Turner back in the mix. Remember, this is a team that won 8 straight games and a team that had scored over a point per possession in all but one of those games before he went down to end the season. In both tournament games to 70 and 73 possessions, they're back to those ways as they've scored over 1ppp in both games, and in impressive fashion. It's also important to note that McNeese State lost in this exact game last year as the #1 seed. I think there is some value on McNeese with motivation and the high level they're playing at, but I also see value in Lamar as well. Both offenses are much, much better than the defenses that are brought to the table. Mcneese State's totals last and this year in this tournament came in at 115, 174, 147, 152 and 168. The 115 game came against the slowest team in the conference last year in Nichols State. This is a team that went to OT on Wednesday and bounced back immediately Thursday into a 92 point outing in less possessions, rare, but shows how good the offense can be when it's hitting. Lamar is a team coached by Pat Knight in his first year, and he certainly isn't one to slow the game down. His conference tournament possession totals at Texas Tech: 76, 66, 74, 75, and 77. This year, he's played to a 66 and a 57. The 57 I'm not concerned with (and it helps here bouncing back into fast up and down), as it came against Stephen F Austin whose a snail. Simply put, this one should have the makings of being an all-out up and down game. Lamar is the most experienced team in the country, not only in terms of on-court experience but where they've played at. They start 5 seniors in a guard heavy offense and they're extremely balanced and have gone into places like Louisville, Ohio, Ohio State and Kentucky this year. These two teams split in the regular season in 68 and 69 possession games. One of those totals came in at 57-54, which is a bit concerning, however, both teams were in foul trouble, both were facing injuries, and both had nowhere near the same lineups they'll trot out tonight, also noting that Turner (who is mentioned above) only played 8 minutes and fouled out. These teams played to an almost similar spot just one week ago as McNeese State travelled to Lamar with the East Division on the line (which Lamar ultimately won 78-68). It's a decent rivalry, and these teams hate each other. There is no zone defense here, all man to man, and both teams will attack consistently and both teams crash the offensive gass consistently. If I have a concern with the total, it's probably McNeese State's offense, but they have such a great advantage on the interior in this game that I can live with it + they're offense is coasting at this point since getting Turner back into the lineup. All in all, you have two pretty up-tempo coaches who go to their strength to try and grab the automatic bid, and the strength is to go up and down and put points up on the board. Classic matchup of experience versus motivation, and assuming this one gets to the minimum of 68 or 69 possessions, this one should see some points.
5* McNeese State/Lamar Over 137.5
The Rest:
3* Mississippi +7
3* St. Bonaventure -2.5
3* Wisconsin +4
2* UC Santa Barbara/Long Beach State Over 131.5
1* Mississippi ML +270
Lean: Akron +1.5
GL
0
Was on Wisky and St bonny and ole miss already!!!
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