Posted:
#1
Whenever people talk about lines, line movements, and results - there is always one consensus - "boy, Vegas sure knows what they are doing when they make these lines". I have been searching for the elusive "vegas" for some insight, and have made some progress.
There are two main schools of thought amongst gamblers about how lines are set. The first is that lines are set by "vegas" in an attempt to trap or lure you in to betting a side. This introduces the term "public" to the discussion - the "public" is the square or novice bettor who falls for not so obvious betting pitfalls. Of course, "vegas" knows more than the "public" so they set a line that looks inviting on the surface, but they know they have the edge when you bet that side. The people who believe this theory think that the lines come out with one purpose in mind, to get as many people to bet on a side of the game that vegas has an edge on, and then over time vegas makes a killing.
The second school of thought on linemaking is that "vegas" just wants to have even action on both sides of the game, and make guaranteed profit from the vig. They dont know anything more than you and I know, and in fact they dont even set a line to reflect what they think will be the result of the contest, they set a line only to attract even action on a game. In this case - "vegas" is not in to the prediction of results, they are in to the prediction of wagering dollars. They dont care who wins or loses, they only care that they have even action on both sides. In theory, all of their work is done at the time of kickoff of the event and they dont even have an interest in the game itself because they have made their money already just by brokering money between the winners and losers and keeping a commission.
There are heated debates about this. There are businesses built around this. People pay for information about who the "public" or "sharps" are betting on. People bet real money not on who they think will win a bet, but on whether or not that team has "public" or "sharp" money on it.
After every game that comes right down to the wire with the spread, you hear people everywhere say things like "boy, isnt it amazing how those linesmakers put out a line that comes right down to the last play?" Since I subscribe to the idea that lines are made ONLY to match action on a game, I always respond by saying it is ME AND YOU who set the lines, not the linesmakers, so WE are the experts. If lines move by betting dollars only, then a final line should equate to the point where half is on one side and half on the other, and at that point you and I have set a perfect line. Joe Watercooler after the superbowl has no idea of this concept - but you and I should.
I see people that follow "public" and "sharp" line movements as lazy gamblers looking for an easy answer - that holy grail that will give them a formula for success. There are so many problems with the theory - the biggest is probably the nature of the numbers used for "public" and "sharp" money are inherently skewed, vague, and possibly purposely not accurate. And beyond that is the simple fact that there are no proven historical statistics on when and how to use the numbers with any kind of statistical significance. It is always fuzzy science - things said like "you cant use it all the time, you have to pick your spots" etc... that really do nothing for anyone except give another astrological type of hocus pocus to handicapping.
"Vegas" sets lines to get even action on games. "Vegas" does not trap you. "Vegas" has plenty of money to make by just matching action and taking no risk. "Vegas" has no more information about future results than you or I do. "Vegas" doesnt care about "publics" and "sharps" except to match action.
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There are two main schools of thought amongst gamblers about how lines are set. The first is that lines are set by "vegas" in an attempt to trap or lure you in to betting a side. This introduces the term "public" to the discussion - the "public" is the square or novice bettor who falls for not so obvious betting pitfalls. Of course, "vegas" knows more than the "public" so they set a line that looks inviting on the surface, but they know they have the edge when you bet that side. The people who believe this theory think that the lines come out with one purpose in mind, to get as many people to bet on a side of the game that vegas has an edge on, and then over time vegas makes a killing.
The second school of thought on linemaking is that "vegas" just wants to have even action on both sides of the game, and make guaranteed profit from the vig. They dont know anything more than you and I know, and in fact they dont even set a line to reflect what they think will be the result of the contest, they set a line only to attract even action on a game. In this case - "vegas" is not in to the prediction of results, they are in to the prediction of wagering dollars. They dont care who wins or loses, they only care that they have even action on both sides. In theory, all of their work is done at the time of kickoff of the event and they dont even have an interest in the game itself because they have made their money already just by brokering money between the winners and losers and keeping a commission.
There are heated debates about this. There are businesses built around this. People pay for information about who the "public" or "sharps" are betting on. People bet real money not on who they think will win a bet, but on whether or not that team has "public" or "sharp" money on it.
After every game that comes right down to the wire with the spread, you hear people everywhere say things like "boy, isnt it amazing how those linesmakers put out a line that comes right down to the last play?" Since I subscribe to the idea that lines are made ONLY to match action on a game, I always respond by saying it is ME AND YOU who set the lines, not the linesmakers, so WE are the experts. If lines move by betting dollars only, then a final line should equate to the point where half is on one side and half on the other, and at that point you and I have set a perfect line. Joe Watercooler after the superbowl has no idea of this concept - but you and I should.
I see people that follow "public" and "sharp" line movements as lazy gamblers looking for an easy answer - that holy grail that will give them a formula for success. There are so many problems with the theory - the biggest is probably the nature of the numbers used for "public" and "sharp" money are inherently skewed, vague, and possibly purposely not accurate. And beyond that is the simple fact that there are no proven historical statistics on when and how to use the numbers with any kind of statistical significance. It is always fuzzy science - things said like "you cant use it all the time, you have to pick your spots" etc... that really do nothing for anyone except give another astrological type of hocus pocus to handicapping.
"Vegas" sets lines to get even action on games. "Vegas" does not trap you. "Vegas" has plenty of money to make by just matching action and taking no risk. "Vegas" has no more information about future results than you or I do. "Vegas" doesnt care about "publics" and "sharps" except to match action.
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