I'll start off with an article.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-nfl-week-6-betting-recap-its-not-good-brutal-all-around
Also, the Over went 10-4.
The public is fat and happy, and the CD crew knows what that means here. The books will have to inflate some lines this week, if ever so slightly.
Gimme some time, will get started soon.
All lines from Betonline
TNF
Broncos -1.5(-110) @ Saints (37)
God, how could a rookie qb like Bo Nix be favored otr in prime time? I guess when your facing another rookie like Spencer Rattler, we have our answer.
I can only lean to the Saints side here. After dvoa has so lavishly praised the Saints all year(incorrectly I suppose), maybe this is the spot where it comes to fruition, because no one expects it to.
The Saints are 2-4, but their expected wins total is at 3.5-2.5. Dvoa dropped em to 11th, when last week they were 4th. Giving up 51 points to the Bucs will do that naturally. Speaking of their defense, what happened the last 3 games? Giving up 26, 26, and 51?
I can only see a get right game after pure embarrassment.
The Broncos are OK, sometimes good, mostly bad. What they do have is a somewhat competent coach, especially when compared to Denis Allen. Coaching lives matter at the newsletter.
They sit 18th in dvoa, when last week they were 16th. They are 3-3 and their expected wins are 3.5-2.5, same as the Saints.
So how are they favored otr on a short week?
If it is truly the qb situation, let's compare them, albeit a small sample size for Rattler.
Bo Nix: qbr=73.7, Comp %=61.1, epa+cpoe=#35
Rattler: qbr=60.7, Comp %=55, epa+cpoe=#40
Ok the line makes sense in that regard. Hey look at the total, it's 37 when the Saints just gave up 51. Looks like it's under or nothing in this game.
Let me know if I miss any injuries in any of these games.
From London...
Patriots @ Getty's -5.5(-112) 42.5
We talked a little about this one last week. The entire world will see the Jaguars staying in London an advantage, and we see it as a detriment, cause we're sharp like that.
Who are the Jags to be laying the lumber vs anyone right now? If I had to guess the next coach fired, how couldn't it not be Doug Pederson? I guess that the owner is a really nice guy, so maybe he won't be.
Jax is 27th in dvoa, the Pats are 29th. Both teams are in the cellar at 1-5, but only one team is where they "should" be right now from pre season expectations. The Jags expected wins is 1.5-4.5, the Pats are 1.3-1.7, not exactly conducive to a 5.5 point spread imo.
Why not back Drake Maye in his second game? The Pats should be stoked for this trip, let er rip.
Eagles -3 @ Giants (43)
I couldn't fathom betting on a road fav in division, it's never a good outcome in most cases. I also have been sour on the Eagles from the get go, so I couldn't back em here, no way, now how. I could be very wrong so it leans me to a no play.
I've watched a fair share of both teams this year. Would I be crazy if I thought that Dabol was a better coach than Sirianni? I don't think so.
One particular thing that stands out in this matchup is that the Eagles look a lot better with AJ Brown in the lineup, and the Giants look worse without Malik Nabers. Will he pass concussion protocol by Sunday? Also look out for the Giants Tackle Evan Neal, he could be back for the first time this season.
The Eagles are 3-2, expected wins 2.3-2.7, dvoa #20.
The Giants are 2-4, expected wins 2.2-2.8, dvoa #23.
You see I told you guys, the lines are slightly bumped to the favs. This line should be 2.5 at most.
As much as I really don't desire either team in any given year, this is a matchup that peaks my interest for some reason, and would love to hear what you guys think about it.
Lions @ Vikings -1(-125) 50
Powerhouse matchup of the mighty NFC North, winter is coming.
Let's start with the total...50?! In a game where Brian Flores is currently playing chess like Bobby Fischer with any opponent in front of him. Ben Johnson is no chump, but Flores has gotten the best of the Niners, Texans and Packers thus far.
Perhaps the gruesome injury to Aiden Hutchinson will allow Darnold to have his way vs the Lions D? And on the flip side, the Lions O line is plowing everyone in front of them, so maybe the total isn't that absurd, and the game is indoors. I'll let you guys ponder the the total.
The Vikings are the #1 dvoa team, 5-0, and coming off a bye. Let's pretend that both teams were equal, and let's say 2 points for home field, then why aren't the Vikings -2?
What's skewing this line to the Lions even after the loss of Hutchinson? Could it be the insane blow out of America's team in the Cowboys? It has to be, right or wrong? People remember best what they saw last. Meanwhile the Vikings sat quietly in the reeds like a stalking tiger. Ha, I don't know about that but it sounds cool.
Detroit did move up to the #2 dvoa team after being #5 last week. They are 34.2% dvoa compared to 41% of the Vikings.
If any coach is capable of a rally cry type effort in wake of a fallen soldier, it's Dan Campbell. 100% he has all ready addressed the team and cried about Hutch, the dude is emotional and that's why the team adheres to him the way they do.
Detroit has won the last 3 matchups. The revenge factor should be big in the Vikings locker room.
Kevin O'Connell is 2-0 su, 1-0-1 ats after a bye.
The Vikings have had the #3 toughest schedule, Lions #24.
I can't really find a great angle to back either side. Other than the Vikings are getting short changed on the line, and we don't fully understand why yet.
This game is must watch tv. Lean Vikings, but not rushing to the window.
Oh it's going to be one of those newsletters Biscuit, I like the slate a lot
Dolphins @ Colts -3(-120) 44
Ok here's a game with not much to get excited about. And probably why we should look to the Phins off a bye as the only play. It would only be made if the public takes it to 3.5(looking like it) and possibly 4.
Fuck I don't even know who the qb will be for the Dolphins, it definitely won't be Tua. Ok it's Huntley, he's an ex Raven, he must be good. We all know that Skylar Thompson is a dumpster fire.
But wait, Joe Flacco is also an ex Raven, what do we do?
The Dolphins somehow sit in 2nd place in the afc east, thanks to the Jets ineptitude as an organization. Looking at the Dolphins wins, by 3 vs the Jags, and by 5 vs the Pats doesn't leave much to desire.
The Colts sit in the eye of the storm of their terrible gauntlet phase of the schedule. The only home game bookended by 2 away games. One would think that they have to win this winnable game.
They have the Texans on deck in Houston, can the dorky/coke dealer looking coach catch them sleeping here?
I have no clue on this game, maybe it should be a hard pass.
Texans @ Packers -3(even) 47.5
Another damn good game it looks like. It also looks like bettors are taking the 3 off the Texans, why wouldn't they with a 5-1 team getting points vs a 4-2 team?
I have a feeling that CJ Stroud hasn't played too many outdoor games in his career, and Lambeau is of a different breed when it comes to outdoor stadiums. If someone could check some splits on that I'd appreciate it.
Hou is 6th in dvoa, and GB is 8th. Hou expected wins is 3.2-2.8, while GB is 4.0-2.0, just as their record says.
The Texans have a divisional game on deck vs the Colts, and the Packers have nothing to look forward to in facing the Getty's. Which reminds me, the Jaguars actually opted to not have a bye week after b2b London games? Wtf is wrong with your team Getty?
Anyway, the Texans have a ferocious front on defense. The Pack haven't faced a front this good since the Vikings, where they put up 29 points all in the 2H minus one td late in the 2nd quarter. That was Love's first game back from injury. He was a little rusty in the 1H and the Vikings basically ended the game in one half.
The Texans have a better special teams unit, and a good coach. Getting 3 points feels to easy, I don't know. The Texans could take a breath here, and get back to it the following week, as they aren't in danger of losing much ground in the afc south.
The Packers on the other hand need every win to keep pace in the nfc north.
I kind of don't want to bet on or against either qb or coach in this game, if you know what I mean. Another must watch game.
Stroud played at OSU.....
Bengals -6.5(-107) @ Browns 42
The hits just keep coming for the Browns, they traded Amari Cooper to the Bills.
Yea that's right, keep bumping this line up to absurdity, I'll wait and play the Browns. I'll either look like a genius or an idiot after the outcome. And I'm fine with both.
We know how tragically bad DeSean Watson is. And he's a terrible human being on top of it. But you can't tell me this isn't the ultimate buy low spot, of buy low spots.
Who are the Bengals to be laying fuckin 6.5 otr to anyone, against a divisional rival to boot? It will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, with an overtime game thrown in.
I feel that if Center Ethan Pocic plays, the Browns can run their way to a cover, they'll want to keep the ball out of Burrows hands as much as possible. He is playing his heart out, with not too much help from his friends thus far.
Talk me out of it, I'm sure you guys will want to.
Titans @ Bills -9(-104) 41
Another inflated line, and this would be a tough dog to back because Will Levis is that bad. Not DeSean Watson bad, but pretty close.
The Bills on a short week playing on MNF. A game that went to the bitter end of a perpetual flag fest from the refs.
The Bills just went through a tough 3 game road test, Ravens, Texans, and Jets. Here's a winnable game they won't want to lose at home before going out to Seattle. Maybe that's the right fade spot if it's not this one?
Will Amari Cooper see the field just getting traded on a short week? Possibly, maybe in a limited capacity.
The Titans only win this year is vs the Dolphins without Tua. They just lost at home to Indy off of a bye week. They are that bad.
Buff is 7th dvoa, Tenn is 26th.
The only thing the Titans bring to the table is a decent defense, but the worst special teams.
CD would be all over this line, I don't know if I have the stomach for it.
Raiders @ Rams -6.5(-116) 43.5
Forget about Adams getting traded, he hasn't played since week 3. Why would the recent trade have any affect on the line.
The Rams are coming off a bye, and I suppose they will be healthier than before the bye. Cooper Kupp is questionable, so keep an eye out through out the week. Although McVay said that Puka Nacua is not expected to practice this week.
This is yet another inflated line. The Rams have a great coach, and off a bye, so yea I get it they should win. But 6.5? And it's looking like it's heading to 7.
The Rams are 25th dvoa, Raiders 28th.
The Rams are 1-4, expected wins 1.4-3.6, a smidgen better than their record.
The Raiders are 2-4, expected wins 1.7-4.3, a smidgen worse than their record.
But how do we feel about HFA in LA? Especially in a city where true Raiders fans reside.
Looks like another tough bet to make, where only math is on our side.
Its just the timing I guess you got too work on then
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