CD Newsletter Week 6

Chargers 1H ML(+135) *1.00/1.35

Chargers ML(+140) *1.00/1.40

Lions +3.5(-110) *1.50/1.36

Lions ML(+160) *.75/1.20

@undermysac

 Sometimes ya gotta hold your nose and read the tea leaves

I happen to be 5-0 in Chargers games this year.

This is a TERRIBLE spot for them. Coming off of 4 straight emotional games.

Nail biter vs Dallas

SB type win vs KC

Hyped up MNF game vs Raiders

Insane finish in win vs Clev.

This is the ultimate let down spot for the Chargers. With that said, they are a better team than the Shrimp, so if they can maintain their emotion and intensity they should win the game. But I'm doubting they, or any other team can stay on that emotional peak week after week. They are due for a flat game

@undermysac

@Hugh_Jorgan

 He used to be an OK guy before he got the Strips on his shirt, they say power does something, you can see by my examples it was nothing but betting talk and some do's and don't for Rooks, maybe djbrow did not understand what it was??     I remember when the PB was Run by the Men.

2-1 on WNBA, lost the game bet by one in OT, +4 and sac Chicago Girls lost by 5 in OT.

Eagles TT o23 

GL

You never did understand satire….

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Great point about the Chargers. But aren't the Ravens winning in the same intense fashion But versus junior varsity teams?

I am really not stoked about the bets, hopefully I go 1-1 at worst. 

Tell me about the Bears Tea leaves, cause I read them completely differently. Think I wrote something about it.

@undermysac

 The Ravens are playing with their Junior Varsity.....

If they had their 2 Headed Monster Dobbins/Edwards and Peters....

They would be 5-0 and the equal of the Bills.....Period.....

@bigred84

 Are those their only 2 injuries?

Oh wait I read that wrong, looks like they have 3 injuries 

@undermysac

As a result of Bigred not reading a word that I write, which is obvious by his posts within this thread, can you please point out to him that by the 2nd half Indy was missing more players, and the more important players than the Shrimp were on MNF.

Further explain to him that there is an IR list and injury report for each of the 32 teams, not only the Shrimp.

Lastly, please let him know that I love him

@JEG53

 DJ has always been fair. My previous post about him was sarcasm.

If he has a flaw, it's that he thinks his football team is good

Other than that, he's a good dude

@Hugh_Jorgan

Quality versus Quantity.....

From a technical standpoint, the Bears D has been playing well. Giving up about 16 ppg the last 4, and that includes only giving up 26 to the Browns in a game where the offense had it in reverse for the full 60 mins. Also, this is a bigger game for Chi than it is for GB. This is Da Bears season, if they lose this game they lose any reasonable hope of sneaking into the playoffs. This IS their playoff game. 

From an aspect of gambling on the NFL being an art form, GB is now being considered one of the teams with a chance to win the NFC, and most people, including myself, are bearish on the Bears. So the opening line of 4.5 seems about right (I had it at 5). Right now you can find a few 4's out there, what you can't find is people betting Chic. This is one of those games where all the Joe's will be on GB. History tells us that when the majority of bettors are on a road favorite, you want to be on the home dog. 

In gambling there is obviously no sure thing, but betting a home dog against a publicly backed road fav is as good as it gets, which means between 55 - 60% chance of covering

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Nice perspective. As you know I'm a line value hunter, and there is value at the opener of 4.5(I have it at Packers-1).

It's just that the shady side of my brain says "hold on, what do the books know that I dont?" And that is where my thinking was initially when I posted about the match up. 

All though if there is a silver lining, it's that I've noticed all year that the books have been getting the public on the wrong side of bad lines. And that seems to be the case here as you pointed out.

Think I'll be joining you after a little more digging. 

This was my first focal point. It all depends on the read. Are the books making a hard stance on the Packers actually being that good, or do they not give a shit because they know where the bets will be.

True, the Shrimp have also been playing emotionally draining games decided on the last play, with the exception of the Den game. The difference is that the Shrimp have not been in dog fights for 60 mins vs SB contenders and divisional rivals, which the Chargers have. As you said, the Shrimp have played the JV portion of their schedule. Thus, the toll of the emotion invested would be less than that of the Chargers

I think its safe to say that LJ and the birds are SB contenders .....when the other 426 players get off IL ....look out 

Superman saved them on MNF.....played poorly on defense...Averitt #23 was

burnt toast all night long.

Windy day Sunday ,means lots of running ,in the past the Chargers would

be up against it...but this year Jackson has looked much better throwing the ball..

Headed up early Sunday...Pickles Pub then it's party time..

Superman saved them on MNF.....played poorly on defense...Averitt #23 was

burnt toast all night long.

Windy day Sunday ,means lots of running ,in the past the Chargers would

be up against it...but this year Jackson has looked much better throwing the ball..

Headed up early Sunday...Pickles Pub then it's party time..

Superman saved them on MNF.....played poorly on defense...Averitt #23 was

burnt toast all night long.

Windy day Sunday ,means lots of running ,in the past the Chargers would

be up against it...but this year Jackson has looked much better throwing the ball..

Headed up early Sunday...Pickles Pub then it's party time..

Shrimps posting skills have greatly improved 

@bigred84

 Any takers for that 3XL Halotui Ngata jersey that you put on Craigslist at halftime?

2 X  but close...