CD Newsletter Week 6

Spreads and totals are from Betonline as of Monday

TNF Tampa -7 at Philly O/U 51.5   Bucs have to slow down sometime right? This is a gigantic number to cover against a team which just picked up a confidence building win on Sunday. TB LB Lavonte David won't play. If Philly's patchwork OL can play as well as they did last week, they have a chance at the outright win. The over total seems reachable.

London Miami -3.5 at Jacksonville O/U 45.5   Maybe Tua suits up, maybe he doesn't. Maybe the Jags break a 20 game losing streak, maybe they don't. QB Lawrence is the least of their problems and they have a bunch of them. Jax plays here every year but this new embattled coaching staff has not. 

Houston +10 at Indy O/U 42.5   Still need to see how the Colts show on MNF. A lot of people will like the Texans at this number but I think it's light. Colts could easily win by double digits.

GB -4.5 at Chicago O/U 45   The Bears are 3-2 and the criticism and cynicism is non stop. This may wind up being a good team and here's their chance to prove it. 

KC -6.5 at WTF O/U 55.5   The Chiefs will scare the hell out of anyone but a 5 game sample size says they suck. 5th most penalties, most turnovers, 2nd worst turnover margin, and a defense which is dead last in yards per play allowed. Not sure how you play the Chiefs here unless it's the "they'll get it together" factor.

MINN +1.5 at CAR O/U 46   So the new and improved Sam Darnold became the familiar NY Jets Darnold last week. That offense just isn't the same without CMC. His availabilty is key. Vikings coaches are awful but the team probably made a step forward by upsetting the Lions last week. I gravitate towards the under here rather than a side.

SD +3.5 at Shrimp O/U 50.5  Will revisit after the MNF game but this is admittedly a very strong number on the home team. SD may be in a pickle here.

Cinci -3.5 at Detroit O/u 48.  Burrow's health is at the forefront here. When 100% he's awesome. We assume there will be some sort of a letdown from the everlasting OT game last week but the Lions lost in cringe worthy fashion as well. The Lions keep playing above their pay grade. I don't think I'll invest in this property. 

LAR -10.5 at NYG O/U 47   The Rams are really good and they're on 10 days rest. The Giants are physically and mentally imploding. I can see the allure in taking all those points on a home underdog but I think the favorite covers here.

Arizona +2.5 at CLV O/U 50   Why do I have a weird feeling that The Cardinals will win? Maybe because BWS understands the suffering. The total is suspiciously low but I'm not thinking an under just yet.

LV +3 at Denver O/U 44.5   Y'all go do what you want with this one. I'm thinking under the total at best. 

Dallas -4.5 at NE O/U 50   Shocking line here but understandable. I don't think Josh McDaniel has gotten beyond his noodle armed Cam Newton game plan from a year ago. If they want to try dink and dunk plus the run, they'll play right into Dallas' hands. Shaping up to be a statement game for both sides, but the Cowboys are probably too good and the line says it.

SNF Seattle +4.5 at Pitt O/U 42.5   A week ago who would have even imagined the Steelers being a sizeable favorite over Seattle? This is what injuries do. Seadorks have the 2nd worst rush defense in the league, and this looks like a Najee Harris game for Pitt. Papa Geno Smith looked good in relief of Russ last week, but he's in a heap of trouble now.

MNF Buffalo -5.5 at Tenn O/U 53.5   Tennessee can win this game, but I'm not ready to bet against the BIlls. Long ways to go before making a decision, if any here.

Gruden out as Raiders HC   

You’re a good man Getty 

I second that..and well versed 

I would not bet on Geno Smith with Hugh's money. 

@Biscuiteater1

Well played

The only game I have bet thus far out of fear this line drops to 6.5

Philly D played really well last week. I trust that the Eagles will stay on the script that Dallas wrote in week 1, and not try to run the ball into that brick wall, and instead just attack a secondary which isn't that good. Lavonte David is a huge loss for the Bucs. Brady also with a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Don't yet know if that will effect his throws, but I am positive it can't help. This line is inflated due to the Brady's seemingly scoring at will. Not this week at a very loud and hostile stadium. Hurts has not been bad, and he should be able to run past the older/slower D-line of TB.

Philly +7, ML

Carolina at a near Pickem on Pinny after last weeks meltdown . This Vikings team are tough to watch . Had them in survivor ( whew ) . 

My only play so far 

I second that 

Didn't see the thread till now. I'll copy my thoughts from the week 5 thread about the Packers/Bears so it can get 49 more views

Let's talk Bears Packers. 

So GB opened -3.5 @ Cinci(a team the Bears beat). Line gets bet down to -2.5 by sharps I'm assuming and yours truly. The Bengals and Packers lost that game 3 times apiece. 

Packers @ Bears look ahead -4.5, and sits there now. The Pack laying more otr vs division on b2b roadies after an overtime?

Fuck I can't bet the Bears here, no way. I think you guys were right about the Raiders distractions vs the Bears. Which made the Bears look better in that game.

For the record, I still think the Packers aren't that good. Rogers and Adams are a killer duo though, and the Bears secondary is suspect. But their pass rush continues to thrive even without Akiem Hicks.

"SD +3.5 at Shrimp O/U 50.5  Will revisit after the MNF game but this is admittedly a very strong number on the home team. SD may be in a pickle here."

I don't think the Chargers would mismanage a game like the Colts did, and Herbert has proven that he's game for a shootout. And that can happen at any moment vs Lamar. 

Brandon Staley has proven in the past that he can thwart a decent running attack(till last week vs the Browns). His front 7 is not great vs the run, but the Shrimp have a rag tag bunch at RB. Need to check the Shrimps injuries on online before making a play.

Has Red updated us on that report yet?

NFL 17-17-1 +4.19

MLB 7-9 +0.16

Batting .500, but profiting. It can be done in football gentlemen, not just baseball.  College basketball ML's are great too.

@undermysac

 Boyle TE on the verge of coming off the IR...Great blocker

Stanley LT  on the verge as well..great LT

Phillips  LG  not that good ...

Cleveland LG  injured last night..good run blocker was rotating with Powers...

Headed up to Bmore Sunday morning.......Let's Gooooooo...

Headed up to Bmore Sunday morning.......Let's Gooooooo...

I heard that LJ is getting the key to the city .....can anyone confirm ?

He already had it...35-8 last 43 starts...

Key to the city....not the key to your heart 

As you are the Newsletters resident knower of all things Shrimp, can you please provide us with LJ's won/lost record in the playoffs. And just so there are no excuses also provide all of his other stats such as TD/INT, YPA, Completion %, QB Rating. You know, the important stuff.

This is for informational purposes only, as we all rely on you to paint an accurate picture of the Shrimp and not just their injury history.

Readyyyyy .... GO!

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Backup punter was hurt for one of those playoff losses

@undermysac

I remember that day well. It created quite a stressful game for me to view.

How the Shrimp have survived this season is unfathomable. They have 17 starters out, and that's just on their D-line

If the Shrimps are not contenders this year with LJ ....he better win gold grill of the year or something 

Tigger  When were the Cowboys even in the playoffs in the last 20 years....

7 of 22 starters out and still are 4-1....If healthy ..GFL....

He sure as hell ain't winning any best-looking contests