Posted:
#176
@undermysac
Didn't make it easy getting inside those ever-narrowing uprights.
CD Newsletter Week 5
Posted:
#177
YTD: 2-15 (-13.95)
Jaguars +3(-110) *2.50/2.27
Jaguars ML(+135) *1.50/2.03
Texans 1H ML(+105) *10.00/10.50
Steelers +4.5(-110) *1.25/1.14
Rams 1H +2.5(+100) *1.25
Rams 1H ML(+140) *.50/.70
Adding:
Cardinals 1H +1.5(-110) *1.25/1.14
Cardinals 1H ML(+125) *.75/.94
Same cap as the Texans. Much better 1H power rating. Much better QB. Bengals with a slightly harder sos, but this game is in AZ. AZ is #16 overall dvoa. Cincinnati is #26.
Everyone is expecting the Bengals to fight for their lives here but how? Tee Higgins is out, starting CB Chidobe Awuzie is out with DJ Turner making his first nfl start in his place. Josh Tupou in the trenches is out. The Cardinals offense is 6th overall by dvoa, like I said before that this is no team to "get right" against, especially with a depleted secondary.
This # is stupid. How quickly people forget that this team beat the Cowboys. As if this is a trap line of some sort. I'll take the bookies dare.
Posted:
#183
That horse collar one was dumb as shit... whenever I see a bet like yours lose this way, all I can think of is: you can't buy luck...
It looks like bigred was right, regarding the O's, I think he said in some thread he could see them getting swept by Texas, they are getting lit up.
Accomplished time-waster
Posted:
#186
At this point of the day, I would like to ask Hugh of his honest evaluation of the Cowboys and 49ers game.
It has to be the best rivalry of all time. The first 2 nfc championship games ever played were between these clubs. 1970 I believe was the first.
I think the Cowboys kind of own em.
Posted:
#192
Week 6 look ahead bets:
Seahawks +2(-110) *2.00/1.82
Buccaneers +3(-110) *1.00/.91
Buccaneers +3(+100) *5.00
Buccaneers ML(+155) *1.50/2.33
Stuck with a worse line on Seattle, as the Bengals look to be back on track. Burrow looked like Burrow. Yet, having Pete Carroll off a bye here I'm fine with. Hopefully Geno Smith is much better than Joshua Dobbs.
I'm bullish on the Bucs next week. The line will hit 3.5 I'm certain. But as you guys know, I like better juice. Not going to pay out my ass to avoid a push.
Since the nfl opener vs KC and Mahomes(11), what quarterbacks have the Lions faced? Geno Smith(10), Desmond Ridder(25), Jordan Love(19), Bryce Young(30). The numbers in parentheses is QBR. The Lions only loss was vs Geno, and they only beat Mahomes by 1 in a game where Toney had 3 drops.
Would you be surprised That Baker Mayfield is 8th overall QBR at 101.5? And his new OC(Dave Canales) is the quarterbacks coach from Seattle who resurrected Geno Smith's career. The Seahawks put up 48 points on the Lions last year. Canales has 2 weeks coming off a bye to put a game plan together vs the Lions.
The Lions are piping hot, beating terrible teams by margin. I feel like they get a dose of reality here otr, outdoors in the Tampa heat. Feels like a sell high spot to me.
The Bucs only loss this year is vs the Eagles, Arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL. The Bucs 26-9 win over the Saints is aging well after we saw what the Saints did to the Pats yesterday.
Good Luck
Posted:
#193
Quote Originally Posted by marvindorfler:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Nothing like pissing away 2 bets after a good day. Still can't complain. Leaving tomorrow for nowheresville Wisconsin to fish for 5 days.,,,,,,take big purple with you,cement loafers, bottom of lake,,,,,,,put him out of his misery, his orioles stink ,,,,,,,,,,dodgers/ariz over 8, table max,,,,pass on mnf
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Nothing like pissing away 2 bets after a good day. Still can't complain. Leaving tomorrow for nowheresville Wisconsin to fish for 5 days.,,,,,,take big purple with you,cement loafers, bottom of lake,,,,,,,put him out of his misery, his orioles stink ,,,,,,,,,,dodgers/ariz over 8, table max,,,,pass on mnf
I’m imagining the scene from The Godfather where Fredo gets whacked while fishing.
”You broke my heart Big Purple!”
Keep at it.
Posted:
#198
Quote Originally Posted by Cranky_Hank:
@undermysac Yes. You have the floor. Proceed.
@undermysac Yes. You have the floor. Proceed.
Ok, just gonna copy and paste my texts between my college gambling buddy's about this game. They're diggin it but apprehensive. That makes it even better, cause NO ONE will want any part of Dallas after last night.
Posted:
#199
Since 2021, the Cowboys after a loss are 9-1 su. They averaged 34 ppg, and allowed 15.9 ppg in these 10 games. I found these stats on my own. I used this last year when the Cowboys beat the Vikings 40-3
If the spread were to be Cowboys -3 in all these games, they went 7-1-2 ats
-2.5 or less, they'd be 9-1 ats
Mccarthy is the most reliable bounce back coach in the last 3 years
The best part about it is that the media completely shits on them all week after a loss. That game last night was a complete embarrassment
They play in LA vs the Chargers on MNF. B2B prime time games.
The Cowboys have a bye after the Chargers game as well. I think they lay it all on the line. Can't go 0-2 on prime time then have 2 weeks to sulk
Spread opened Cowboys -3, public has bet it down to -2.5 and -2 in some spots
It's like that Vikings game all over again from last year. Cowboys were -2.5 at Minny after a loss, and Minnys record was great due to a huge luck factor. I hit my biggest bet of the year on the boys in that game.
Everyone including the podcasts were all over Minny.
Gold. 
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