CD Newsletter Week 3

The grind continues.

Car -7.5 @ Hou (Thur Night)

Interesting game.Panthers going on their first road trip having beat the NYJ and Saints at home. Hou whipped up on Jax at home, then were reasonably competitive on the road vs the Brownies. Tyrod injury makes it probable that Hou starts rookie QB Davis Mills, who went 8-18 with 1 TD and 1 INT in the 2nd half last week. I'm not sold on Darnold as a top 25 QB, but I have no idea who this Mills kid is.

Ari -7.5 @ Jax

Ari smoked Tenn on the road, then got very lucky to beat Minn at home. Cards rely too much on Kyler making big plays. Ari had a gut wrenching win last week + division rival Rams next week = flat this week. Unfortunately Jax sucks.

Indy @ Tenn -5.5

Who will play QB for Indy? They are already 0-2 with both losses coming at home. They bout to be 0-3.

Shrimp -9 @ Det

Lions showing some spunk. 2nd half in the MNF game they kept stopping themselves with unforced errors. They will score points vs the Shrimp secondary, who are dead last in the NFL in yards given up through the air. Lions are middle of the pack against the run.

WFT @ Buff -8

What happened to the WFT defense? Only 7 teams have given up more yards, and the NYG went up and down the field on them. I don't have a feel for the Bills yet, but they should do well in their wild card game, because NE is winning that division (my apologies to DoubleUp)

N.O. @ NE -3

Saints have the feel of the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team. They will go 7-1 at home, and 1-7 on the road. This is a road game. I am one of the original members of the Mac Jones fan club.

LAC @ KC -6.5

Mahomes is the best. Herbert is in the discussion of 2nd best. KC giving up 470 yds per game and they are equally inept against the run and the pass. 

ATL @ NYG -3

Who cares

Chi @ Cle -7.5

Justin Fields is not yet ready for the NFL. For his sake, and that of our resident Bears fans, I will hope that Dalton plays this week. Cle has injury concerns for their WR's.

Cin @ Pitt -4.5

Surprised this line wasn't 6+. Sign that the Bungles are getting better and the Steelers are getting worse. Big Ben can no longer throw the fastball, similar to what happened to Brees last year. Ya gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em.

Mia @ LVR -3.5

Raiders defense and the Phins D have similar rankings in the YPG category. Who would have guessed that? Mia should probably be 0-2. Not sure of status of Tua. Lean the team from Vegas.

NYJ @ Den -10.5

I don't ever lay more than a TD, but I can not bet on the NYJ until next year.

TB @ LAR P

The best match up this week, if not this year. Both teams have super offenses, with a slight nod to the Brady's. Rams have a better defense and have had this one circled.

Sea -1.5 @ Minn

Sea giving up 162 YPG on the ground. Dalvin Cook up next, although he is hobbled by an ankle sprain he is expected to play. Similar to ARI, the Seahawks rely solely on Russ to make a few big plays. Sea is a flawed team ... although Russ is good enough to put the lipstick on the pig.

GB @ SF -3.5

SF or no play for me. GB defense is atrocious, but Jimmy G is not as good as his contract would suggest.

Philly @ Dal -4

Line seems about right for a division game. Cowboys are the better team, with the better QB. Can Dallas defense continue to hang in there? Philly's been good on D, and have run the ball very well.

Davis Mills QB from Stanford....no idea who he really is..

Pats will win the AFC East.....Seriously doubt that....

The over in the Ravens games this year banged up on defense are ..tell Cyrax...

Nice break down Hugh.

I lean Cinci, and staying away from the Raiders.  Because the lines are talking to me.

Couple line moved already, most notably Pitt goes from -4.5 to -3.5.

TB -1, Sea -2, Cle -7

Nice work Hugh .....not only have the picks improved ...the writing is exquisite 

@trainwreck66

@Sac

Yup, missed the better line. Expecting to see 4 again, tho

Falcons / Giants in a game no one gives a shit about the Falcons offense "gets right" here and we saw what Heinieke was able to do on a typically lackluster TNF game now with 10 day to prep.  Take that over 48       Cy should be happy 

BTW, lines all stink this week.  That is all.  Props coming later in the week  

Davis Mills will start this week for Hou as Tyrod placed on IR

Jarvis Landry also placed on IR. OBJ syill uncertain for this week.

Mike Tomlin said Big Ben has an injury to his pec and is questionable this week, which explains the drop in the line to 3.5

In your best Dave Wanstedt voice..."Derrick Carr had an ankle"

Stabbings away at some mlb...

TEX/NYY 1st 5 UNDER 4.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

TEX 1st 5 +.5(+145) *1.00/1.45

TEX 1st 5 ML(+205) *.50/1.03

Dunning/Montgomery listed

BigD...?

@Hugh_Jorgan

 great job....

@BIGDTITLE

We're on the same page Brother ...

This is the worst NFL weekly wagering slate I've seen in at least 7-8 years 

Sticking to player props is probably a much better investment ...

ill pull a Dave and tell you " great call " or " I had......." after its over if thats ok ?   

@BIGDTITLE

 Perfect 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 I'm seeing 82% on the Raiders. Line stinks to high heaven. I'll run for the hills because I can't put $ on the Dolphins. 

I do have a feeling that Carr's injury might be worse than we know.  And Brisset is an upgrade over Tua imo.

Lamonica or Blanda might play...

1)Most amazing thing to consider from last week: The Bungles turned the ball over on 4 straight possessions at Chicago and probably should have still won the game. Yes Cinci is better, but that is a complete damnation of the Bears. Sorry Sac, although as a Jags fan I know better than to throw rocks from a glass house.

2)Colts are on a death spiral. Too bad, that could have been a good team.

3)Lamar Jackson has one thing in common with Tom Brady : They both love to play football and it shows in their passion and play. That having been said, they're both losing this week.

4)The Chiefs keep playing these frenetic fast paced games down to the wire. At least for this one week, the Chargers can calm them down and put a feather in their cap. Anthony Lynn isn't here to screw it up this time.

5)Very impressed with McCarthy so far. Unlike the Clapper, he's showing the balls to let his $90 million dollar RB take a back seat to the real weapons on this offense.

6)This is the week that the Jaguars break the glass ceiling and fly. This has to be a little bit personal for Urban Meyer when Texas Tech's head coach is a 7.5 road favorite.

7)and finally From the Analytics Dept. The top 8 teams who have the greatest above average expectance of passing have a combined record of 12-4. 

WFT @ Buff -8

What happened to the WFT defense? Only 7 teams have given up more yards, and the NYG went up and down the field on them. I don't have a feel for the Bills yet, but they should do well in their wild card game, because NE is winning that division (my apologies to DoubleUp)

@Hugh_Jorgan

 You can get +375  or more on Patriots winning the division right now... (Save your money Brother , bet it on something else , if you like the Patriots that much why not just bet them to make the playoffs +101   ?)  Season wins is currently over 9.5  +101 too .

I'm way more impressed with the BILLS defense than the offense...They're deep and fast for the first time in forever ....Pass rush was their biggest weakness last year ..Epenesa might be leading the league in QB hurries ?  , Rookie Rouseau  had 2 sacks last week...They've held their opponent scoreless for 6 of the 8 quarters thus far .   

I'll probably pass on them this week ATS  vs WFT and next week vs the Texans as well ...

Oddsmakers have increased the BILLS to -200 to win the division ( up from-160 before the season ) , the season win total is up to over 11.5  -121 despite the choke week 1 .. The schedule looks soft on paper ..

Best of luck Brother 

Love this thread 

@Getty3

I'm liking the Getty's a bunch this week.

About the Bengals 4 straight turnovers...you make it sound like the Bears D had nothing to do with it.

@DoubleUp4Life

 Buffalo looked the part of a dominant team last week. Allen still doesn't look quite right but he's got a great OC in Daboll to get him through it.

@undermysac

 Not at all. I rostered the Bears defense in my DFS lineups. It's all about Nagy and that offense. He needs to make a star out of Fields right now. I just don't believe he's sharp enough to do it. Most teams would have put the Bengals on ice with ease but for Chicago it's a constant struggle on offense.

@Getty3

 Tampa might lose  to the Rams.....but the Lions wont slow 

Jackson down....Ravens TT O 30.....is 

You're spot on Brorher...

Some of Allen's throws looked like 2018 all over again ...Seems to be locking on to one target at times , regardless if the receiver is triple covered .  He threw 3 of 4 ducks that had almost no zip ....

Daboll finally ran the ball last week