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    All Forums | Penalty Box

    CD Newsletter Week 18

    «First Previous 567 ... 8910 Next Last»
    undermysac
    bigred84
    IntenseOperator
    iConsciousness
    Cyrax
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 465
    Posts: 240
    «First Previous 567 ... 8910 Next Last»
     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posts: 52735
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 3:49 PM ET #101

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex

    After further review, I like your side Seabiscuit. And if the Justin Fields rumors were true, I'd absolutely love it.

    an_2drinks

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex

    After further review, I like your side Seabiscuit. And if the Justin Fields rumors were true, I'd absolutely love it.

    an_2drinks

     
    bigred84
    bigred84
    Hall of Fame
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    Posts: 24576
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 4:08 PM ET #102

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    Some Saturday action for me.My first posted teaser.CLE BROWNS +26-110 (B+6)CIN BENGALS +3½-110 (B+6)It grades out at -110.$55/$50   Also the following parlay:CLE BROWNS +21.5-110 (B+1.5)CIN BENGALS ML -143$50/$96Not sure if I'm falling for a well-placed trap with that Browns line. I just expect the Browns to play this one tough. Especially with Myles Garrett's comments about needing to be proved that they have a plan to commit to winning. (Even though that was most likely referring to the off-season.) A divisional matchup, regardless who is behind center, and I just think 20 points is too much as it is. Give me a 3 TD cushion and I like it even more. I call this lazy capping, because I'm capable of more research than what's been placed here.I did look to see how much the Browns have lost against the Ravens in their previous matchups, and just last year the Ravens won by 25 points in Cleveland. So it's not inconceivable that they could do it again at home. But this is the last game of the season and at some point, if victory is secured, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens begin to rest some starters. Sure it could happen with both teams (may as well bring up the backups in a blowout loss in the last game of the season). No team likes to get blown out, regardless of whether it's a meaningful game or not. Bailey Zappe, who's starting for the Browns is a wildcard. Don't know what to expect from him, but he's had some meaningful games come from him with the Pats, enough so that fans at one point wanted him to start over Mac Jones.There's not a lot to go off in this game. I'm also not sure who's running the ball for the Browns.... D'onta Foreman? I know Ford and Chubb are out for the year now. Regardless...Let's gamble!

    GL Lance Alworth.....clover

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    Some Saturday action for me.My first posted teaser.CLE BROWNS +26-110 (B+6)CIN BENGALS +3½-110 (B+6)It grades out at -110.$55/$50   Also the following parlay:CLE BROWNS +21.5-110 (B+1.5)CIN BENGALS ML -143$50/$96Not sure if I'm falling for a well-placed trap with that Browns line. I just expect the Browns to play this one tough. Especially with Myles Garrett's comments about needing to be proved that they have a plan to commit to winning. (Even though that was most likely referring to the off-season.) A divisional matchup, regardless who is behind center, and I just think 20 points is too much as it is. Give me a 3 TD cushion and I like it even more. I call this lazy capping, because I'm capable of more research than what's been placed here.I did look to see how much the Browns have lost against the Ravens in their previous matchups, and just last year the Ravens won by 25 points in Cleveland. So it's not inconceivable that they could do it again at home. But this is the last game of the season and at some point, if victory is secured, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens begin to rest some starters. Sure it could happen with both teams (may as well bring up the backups in a blowout loss in the last game of the season). No team likes to get blown out, regardless of whether it's a meaningful game or not. Bailey Zappe, who's starting for the Browns is a wildcard. Don't know what to expect from him, but he's had some meaningful games come from him with the Pats, enough so that fans at one point wanted him to start over Mac Jones.There's not a lot to go off in this game. I'm also not sure who's running the ball for the Browns.... D'onta Foreman? I know Ford and Chubb are out for the year now. Regardless...Let's gamble!

    GL Lance Alworth.....clover

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posts: 52735
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 4:34 PM ET #103

    I feel a Browns SU win today, just feels right.

    peace_5

    Reply

    I feel a Browns SU win today, just feels right.

    peace_5

     
    IntenseOperator
    IntenseOperator
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    Posts: 8613
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 4:37 PM ET #104

    @undermysac

    I can play "forum talk"

    here.....

    "4 Games with opening lines of 52 or more have all gone OVER this season."

    "Got 'em right where I want 'em, surrounded from the inside"
    Reply

    @undermysac

    I can play "forum talk"

    here.....

    "4 Games with opening lines of 52 or more have all gone OVER this season."

     
    iConsciousness
    iConsciousness
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    Posts: 4652
    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 5:23 PM ET #105

    Bateman hurt and hasn't returned. Flowers just got hurt and hasn't returned (yet).

    There was an oh-shit reaction from Harbaugh caught on camera.

    It's looking like the Ravens won't need both for the rest of the game, but Ravens fans (Red/Biscuit), you gotta be somewhat concerned they're okay for next week.

    Reply

    Bateman hurt and hasn't returned. Flowers just got hurt and hasn't returned (yet).

    There was an oh-shit reaction from Harbaugh caught on camera.

    It's looking like the Ravens won't need both for the rest of the game, but Ravens fans (Red/Biscuit), you gotta be somewhat concerned they're okay for next week.

     
    iConsciousness
    iConsciousness
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 5:25 PM ET #106

    Beautiful throw by Lamar on that TD to Andrews.  He also 4k passing yards this season.

    Reply

    Beautiful throw by Lamar on that TD to Andrews.  He also 4k passing yards this season.

     
    Cyrax
    Cyrax
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 5:58 PM ET #107

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

    Reply

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

     
    IntenseOperator
    IntenseOperator
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 6:20 PM ET #108

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

    there's a trend about games with double digit favorites coming in strong for the UNDER

    "Got 'em right where I want 'em, surrounded from the inside"
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

    there's a trend about games with double digit favorites coming in strong for the UNDER

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 7:14 PM ET #109

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

    Even $ split on the sides, they don't care.

    Here come the Browns! an_horse

    I hope this game is real close, I'll back the Shrimp next game

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyrax:

    is it just me that thinks the books wants the Browns to cover the spread and keep the total under.?

    Even $ split on the sides, they don't care.

    Here come the Browns! an_horse

    I hope this game is real close, I'll back the Shrimp next game

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 7:34 PM ET #110

    Donte Jackson is out for Pitt, starting corner. But he sucks.

    Cory Trice Jr is starting in his place. He has an 87.8 coverage grade by pff. He's played 127 snaps this year.

    Reply

    Donte Jackson is out for Pitt, starting corner. But he sucks.

    Cory Trice Jr is starting in his place. He has an 87.8 coverage grade by pff. He's played 127 snaps this year.

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 7:35 PM ET #111

    That was the best interception I've ever seen. 

    Go Shrimp an_horse

    Reply

    That was the best interception I've ever seen. 

    Go Shrimp an_horse

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 8:00 PM ET #112

    As the local Bears expert, I always said that Khalil Herbert was a decent RB. He should want to show the Bengals that he's worthy. 

    peace_5

    Reply

    As the local Bears expert, I always said that Khalil Herbert was a decent RB. He should want to show the Bengals that he's worthy. 

    peace_5

     
    bigred84
    bigred84
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 9:18 PM ET #113

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    I feel a Browns SU win today, just feels right.

    just missed...an_wink

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    I feel a Browns SU win today, just feels right.

    just missed...an_wink

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 10:49 PM ET #114

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    How do we not bet on the Getty's here at +5? This has ML written all over it. Why did Flacco start last week? Is Richardson done for the year? Was that not the biggest kick in the dick dream crushing loss against the Giants last week? I believe that Drew Lock had a perfect passer rating in the 1H vs the Colts. He torched them in every which way. I could put my $ on Mac Jones here getting 5, why not? Getty, what say you?

    I haven't been paying attention much, and have just noticed the Jags line down to 3 at most books.

    More investigation must be done here.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    How do we not bet on the Getty's here at +5? This has ML written all over it. Why did Flacco start last week? Is Richardson done for the year? Was that not the biggest kick in the dick dream crushing loss against the Giants last week? I believe that Drew Lock had a perfect passer rating in the 1H vs the Colts. He torched them in every which way. I could put my $ on Mac Jones here getting 5, why not? Getty, what say you?

    I haven't been paying attention much, and have just noticed the Jags line down to 3 at most books.

    More investigation must be done here.

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 11:13 PM ET #115

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex

    What # did you get?

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex

    What # did you get?

     
    iConsciousness
    iConsciousness
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 11:24 PM ET #116

    So the Chargers have something to play for tomorrow — playoff seeding.

    With a Chargers win against the Raiders, they'll have the 5th seed and face the Chiefs in the 1st rd.

    Reply

    So the Chargers have something to play for tomorrow — playoff seeding.

    With a Chargers win against the Raiders, they'll have the 5th seed and face the Chiefs in the 1st rd.

     
    iConsciousness
    iConsciousness
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    Posted: Jan. 4, 2025 - 11:36 PM ET #117

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    Some Saturday action for me.My first posted teaser.CLE BROWNS +26-110 (B+6)CIN BENGALS +3½-110 (B+6)It grades out at -110.$55/$50   Also the following parlay:CLE BROWNS +21.5-110 (B+1.5)CIN BENGALS ML -143$50/$96Not sure if I'm falling for a well-placed trap with that Browns line. I just expect the Browns to play this one tough. Especially with Myles Garrett's comments about needing to be proved that they have a plan to commit to winning. (Even though that was most likely referring to the off-season.) A divisional matchup, regardless who is behind center, and I just think 20 points is too much as it is. Give me a 3 TD cushion and I like it even more. I call this lazy capping, because I'm capable of more research than what's been placed here.I did look to see how much the Browns have lost against the Ravens in their previous matchups, and just last year the Ravens won by 25 points in Cleveland. So it's not inconceivable that they could do it again at home. But this is the last game of the season and at some point, if victory is secured, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens begin to rest some starters. Sure it could happen with both teams (may as well bring up the backups in a blowout loss in the last game of the season). No team likes to get blown out, regardless of whether it's a meaningful game or not. Bailey Zappe, who's starting for the Browns is a wildcard. Don't know what to expect from him, but he's had some meaningful games come from him with the Pats, enough so that fans at one point wanted him to start over Mac Jones.There's not a lot to go off in this game. I'm also not sure who's running the ball for the Browns.... D'onta Foreman? I know Ford and Chubb are out for the year now. Regardless...Let's gamble!

     

    Broke exactly even here. Lost the teaser by a lousy point.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    Some Saturday action for me.My first posted teaser.CLE BROWNS +26-110 (B+6)CIN BENGALS +3½-110 (B+6)It grades out at -110.$55/$50   Also the following parlay:CLE BROWNS +21.5-110 (B+1.5)CIN BENGALS ML -143$50/$96Not sure if I'm falling for a well-placed trap with that Browns line. I just expect the Browns to play this one tough. Especially with Myles Garrett's comments about needing to be proved that they have a plan to commit to winning. (Even though that was most likely referring to the off-season.) A divisional matchup, regardless who is behind center, and I just think 20 points is too much as it is. Give me a 3 TD cushion and I like it even more. I call this lazy capping, because I'm capable of more research than what's been placed here.I did look to see how much the Browns have lost against the Ravens in their previous matchups, and just last year the Ravens won by 25 points in Cleveland. So it's not inconceivable that they could do it again at home. But this is the last game of the season and at some point, if victory is secured, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens begin to rest some starters. Sure it could happen with both teams (may as well bring up the backups in a blowout loss in the last game of the season). No team likes to get blown out, regardless of whether it's a meaningful game or not. Bailey Zappe, who's starting for the Browns is a wildcard. Don't know what to expect from him, but he's had some meaningful games come from him with the Pats, enough so that fans at one point wanted him to start over Mac Jones.There's not a lot to go off in this game. I'm also not sure who's running the ball for the Browns.... D'onta Foreman? I know Ford and Chubb are out for the year now. Regardless...Let's gamble!

     

    Broke exactly even here. Lost the teaser by a lousy point.

     
    trainwreck66
    trainwreck66
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 1:03 AM ET #118

    This organization and City know how to do it ....I hope their luck turns as it should peace_5

     

     

    Report: Vikings spend nearly $2M on tickets for Lions game

    Reply

    This organization and City know how to do it ....I hope their luck turns as it should peace_5

     

     

    Report: Vikings spend nearly $2M on tickets for Lions game

     
    iConsciousness
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 3:46 AM ET #119

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    So the Chargers have something to play for tomorrow — playoff seeding. With a Chargers win against the Raiders, they'll have the 5th seed and face the TEXANS in the 1st rd.

     

    Correction.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

    So the Chargers have something to play for tomorrow — playoff seeding. With a Chargers win against the Raiders, they'll have the 5th seed and face the TEXANS in the 1st rd.

     

    Correction.

     
    iConsciousness
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 4:36 AM ET #120

    Chargers -6.5 -118 ($118/$100)

     

    Chargers 1H -3½-115 ($230/$200)

    The above line is from my local. Bovada has -7 at -105 right now, and tempted to take that as well.

    I'm sure the Raiders will try and win this game, even though they probably shouldn't. They're in the QB sweepstakes and whether they're in range to get the top 2 or not, getting closer to the draft spot they'd need to grab Ward or Sanders makes sense. I think it makes even better sense to hang back and grab Milroe or one of the other QBs in a later round. I'm not necessarily sold on Sanders/Ward anyway. But I digress. As mentioned in a previous post the Chargers have plenty to play for. Even the players have hinted (both prior to the Bengals win and after) that they're ready to make tomorrow's game a playoff game. 

    The only thing the Raiders have going for them is pride, playing a hated rival, and Telesco wanting to get revenge on the team that let him go. But Telesco isn't playing on the field, and I doubt the players have endeared themselves to him to care enough to do that.

    Anyway, you're asking the Chargers to win by a TD against a team that has no QB and no run game. Maybe the line is fishy... but the Chargers have put up 74 points in the past two games. Their offense is starting to find their groove, and the much anticipated return of Alohi Gilman at Safety will occur in this game. So give me the Chargers to win by 1 touchdown. 

    The Chargers, at the very least, should start strong. I'll take that 1H bet, too, and go even bigger. The Chargers rank 9th in the league in 1st half points (at 13.3 pts) whereas the Raiders rank 26th (at 8.4 pts). The last 2 games the Chargers have averaged higher than this.

    Since I feel better about the 1st half bet, I'm going bigger on that to future proof any type of 2H shenanigans (such as the Chargers resting their starters, and the Raiders coming back at the end for a backdoor cover...doubt it, but you never know). peace_5

    Reply

    Chargers -6.5 -118 ($118/$100)

     

    Chargers 1H -3½-115 ($230/$200)

    The above line is from my local. Bovada has -7 at -105 right now, and tempted to take that as well.

    I'm sure the Raiders will try and win this game, even though they probably shouldn't. They're in the QB sweepstakes and whether they're in range to get the top 2 or not, getting closer to the draft spot they'd need to grab Ward or Sanders makes sense. I think it makes even better sense to hang back and grab Milroe or one of the other QBs in a later round. I'm not necessarily sold on Sanders/Ward anyway. But I digress. As mentioned in a previous post the Chargers have plenty to play for. Even the players have hinted (both prior to the Bengals win and after) that they're ready to make tomorrow's game a playoff game. 

    The only thing the Raiders have going for them is pride, playing a hated rival, and Telesco wanting to get revenge on the team that let him go. But Telesco isn't playing on the field, and I doubt the players have endeared themselves to him to care enough to do that.

    Anyway, you're asking the Chargers to win by a TD against a team that has no QB and no run game. Maybe the line is fishy... but the Chargers have put up 74 points in the past two games. Their offense is starting to find their groove, and the much anticipated return of Alohi Gilman at Safety will occur in this game. So give me the Chargers to win by 1 touchdown. 

    The Chargers, at the very least, should start strong. I'll take that 1H bet, too, and go even bigger. The Chargers rank 9th in the league in 1st half points (at 13.3 pts) whereas the Raiders rank 26th (at 8.4 pts). The last 2 games the Chargers have averaged higher than this.

    Since I feel better about the 1st half bet, I'm going bigger on that to future proof any type of 2H shenanigans (such as the Chargers resting their starters, and the Raiders coming back at the end for a backdoor cover...doubt it, but you never know). peace_5

     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 5:59 AM ET #121

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: How do we not bet on the Getty's here at +5? This has ML written all over it. Why did Flacco start last week? Is Richardson done for the year? Was that not the biggest kick in the dick dream crushing loss against the Giants last week? I believe that Drew Lock had a perfect passer rating in the 1H vs the Colts. He torched them in every which way. I could put my $ on Mac Jones here getting 5, why not? Getty, what say you? I haven't been paying attention much, and have just noticed the Jags line down to 3 at most books. More investigation must be done here.
    I too will try and discern the line drop with the Getties, considering that I have Indy - 4' an_nailbiter

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: How do we not bet on the Getty's here at +5? This has ML written all over it. Why did Flacco start last week? Is Richardson done for the year? Was that not the biggest kick in the dick dream crushing loss against the Giants last week? I believe that Drew Lock had a perfect passer rating in the 1H vs the Colts. He torched them in every which way. I could put my $ on Mac Jones here getting 5, why not? Getty, what say you? I haven't been paying attention much, and have just noticed the Jags line down to 3 at most books. More investigation must be done here.
    I too will try and discern the line drop with the Getties, considering that I have Indy - 4' an_nailbiter

     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 6:01 AM ET #122

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex What # did you get?
    2 & 2'

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: A whole lotta peeps are on Cincy, I love Pitt here. Cincy on a 4 game W streak beating Dallas, Tenn, the Browns and Denver at home in overtime.Before that Pitt hung 44 on them IN CINCY. Pitt losing last 3 to @ Philly @ Balty and home to KC. Pitt for a deuce..Alex What # did you get?
    2 & 2'

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 9:01 AM ET #123

    @iConsciousness

     I hope you win, the # just doesn't feel right to me.

    Reply

    @iConsciousness

     I hope you win, the # just doesn't feel right to me.

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 9:04 AM ET #124

    @Biscuiteater1

     Nice win for you. The Bengals dominated that game for 3 quarters, but never pulled away far enough. 

    Week 18 being all divisional games, I suspect a lot of the games going that way.

    peace_5

    Reply

    @Biscuiteater1

     Nice win for you. The Bengals dominated that game for 3 quarters, but never pulled away far enough. 

    Week 18 being all divisional games, I suspect a lot of the games going that way.

    peace_5

     
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jan. 5, 2025 - 10:10 AM ET #125

    I want to bet the Patriots +3.5, but the injury report is a mile long.

    Fearing the Bills backups should be better than the Pats backups.

    What a tough week to handicap 

    Reply

    I want to bet the Patriots +3.5, but the injury report is a mile long.

    Fearing the Bills backups should be better than the Pats backups.

    What a tough week to handicap 

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