CD Newsletter Week 18

I thought I would start this but I'll be in and out tomorrow. 

Steelers (9-7) -3.5/36.5 @ Ravens
The Steelers are in a win and in position and will be looking to Mason Rudolf to lead the way after throwing for 564 yards in back to back wins over Seattle and Cincinnati. Pickens has emerged from his self induced 'doghouse' for 11 catches for 326 yards to at least silence the fans temporarily. Harris has given the offense solid gains on the ground and Pittsburgh has looked dangerous on the attack which hasn't always been the case.

The Ravens have won 4 straight out of their bye and have earned the top seed in the AFC. They will likely rest Jackson and most starters to prevent injury. Tyler Huntley will be under center but even though Baltimore could do much worse at backup, he will be surrounded by fellow backups. I can see TJ Watt making his life more miserable than the cold and rainy weather. Not a fan of this but lean Pittsburgh or over

Texans -1.5/47 @ Colts

Houston and Indianapolis are both in win or stay home situations CJ Stroud returned from injury just in time to lead the Texans to a 26-3 win vs Tennessee where he was 24-32-213.with 10 players recording a catch. I'm not going out on a limb by saying Houston was in deep shit without him. Interesting Tidbits: Houston is 7-0 in their last 7 roadies vs the AFC South and have allowed less than 5 pts (ave) in the 2nd qtr this year.

You can look at the Colts and say they are an offense 1st squad that is ranked #10 that has to be on their toes at all times with the defensive side of the football allowing over 24 points. Minshew has thrown for almost 3200 yds and with Taylor seemingly healthy the Colts do have weapons to give Houston problems. I think the Texans have the more reliable defense and Stroud is the far more dangerous QB. My 1st thought on this was Houston goes to the postseason.

@sportschat

 Atta boy, thanks.

Keep in mind that an nfl team can not just sit every starter but with injuries and sitting the Ravens team that takes the field Sunday will bear only some resemblance of what were accustomed. I still would not spot them more than 3. I mean the Steelers are not a spread them out wheeling dealing kind of team and if the Ravens even care one iota about this game they could certainly keep it close. 

O/U pass att. for Cashew  50

Jaguars -5.5/40 @ Titans

Jacksonville can win the division with a road win here but their playoff hopes should never have come down to this as they dropped 4 straight before finally registering a 26-0 win vs Carolina in week 17. Lawrence is questionable for this one as he has been banged up for awhile and I don't know if he can lead the offense if not close to 100% as he does turn the ball over when healthy.

Tennessee has dropped 3 in a row and have been out of the postseason discussion for awhile. The Titans have issues at QB as well with Levis questionable leaving Ryan Tannehill as the possible starter. I can see a steady dose of Henry here and if the defense can keep the scoreboard in check I lean to taking the points as I don't have a ton of faith in Jacksonville despite being in a must win spot.

Jets @ Patriots -2/30.5

Obviously no playoff implications here as the Jets postseason hopes when down the tube with Rodgers Achilles injury. New York had a defense that could keep games close but in truth they were facing the opponent and their own offense on Sunday's. Their chances of winning have been the same since game #1, limit mistakes, win field position and control the clock.

The biggest news coming out of New England is not how bad this team is but whether BB will be on the sidelines next season. Apparently Brady was the glue that made this machine run bc the current collection of misfits under center aren't close to sniffing success. Zappe can move around a bit but that might be his best attribute. This looks like a rock fight and I think NE has a few more rocks to send Bill out with a win but damn this game is made for radio.

Good stuff SC 

@undermysac

@BIGDTITLE

Vikings @ Lions -3.5/45.5

The Vikings faced an uphill battle to reach the playoffs when Cousins went down and had a decent shot until their home loss to Green Bay last week. As with many teams, finding consistency at QB simply hasn't happened and I expect Nick Mullens to get the call here. He has shown the ability to sling it albeit to the wrong team too. Minny is riding a 3 game skid including a 6 pt loss to these same Lions squad.

Detroit finally won the NFC North in what seems like forever despite dropping a 21-20 decision at Dallas in week 17. The Lions have moved the ball consistently with the majority of issues coming on the defensive side of the ball which is a weak point. Detroit will be resting some starters with their eyes set on the playoffs. I lean Minnesota here with the assumption that Detroit's starting defense isn't great which means backups are backups for a reason.

My source tells me that Chris Kirk who just emerged from IR has a better chance of playing than Trevor. Expect Athena to dress as an emergency QB but CJ Beathard to take the reins. Big revenge spot for Mike Vrabel who lost a week 18 game last year to these Jags which decided the division and a playoff berth. I played 10-O-C +5.5 but didn't bite on the ML as I expect Jax to survive in a 19-17 ish final.

A highly respected betting group has played NE/NYJ Under 31.5. They typically don't play more than 1 game a week.

Thanks to the Blue Hen for his outstanding work. Look forward to the rest. 

I placed a bet on NFL rookie of the year. I think Stroud (850) may fall flat this week and open the door for Puka Nacua. Even though the Rams will start Carson Wentz, the Puke will play needing just 28 yards to set the all time record for receiving yardage for an NFL rookie. It's definitely worth a flyer at +450.

@Getty3

at 30.5 now I'm almost forced to take that over in Foxboro.  Based on both teams ability to turn to ball over left and right.  That number is insane     

Was listening to some Bears talk radio today. One guy made an interesting point.

The Bears literally have no reason to play Fields, or any other starter for that matter this Sunday. A serious injury to any primo player would be a gut punch going into the off season. 

There has been no word of them sitting anyone. They are going into Lambeau full force while having zero chance at the playoffs. 

There's only one goal here, and it's to beat the Packers and knock em out of the playoffs. 

This is their Superbowl. They are feeling good about how they've played in the second half. We've seen teams in the past end a season on a good run, to only transfer that over to the next season. Look no further than inside the nfc north. The Lions last year were 1-6 to start. And finished 8-2. Oddly enough, they beat the Packers in the last week at Lambeau. The Lions were also out of the playoffs at that point. The Packers were -5 favs.

Multiple sources have said that coach Eberflus is safe for next year. In his tenure here, there hasn't ever been one bad word or controversy from the players about their coach or anything else.

Last week, the crowd at Soldier Field chanted "we want Fields". It's all over the media. 

I can't see the future. Lambeau is a tough place to play. Do I want the Bears to win? Hell yes. Do I know? Ofcourse not. But I do feel like the team is focusing 100% this week. I can put my $ on that at the very least.

All the pressure is on the Packers here, with a QB in his first real season in the NFL. Can they take a punch in the mouth this Sunday? The Bears will be coming in swinging. 

@undermysac

 Aaron Rodgers couldn't get on the same page of anyone who he didn't know for at least 3 years (see forcing the Jets to acquire Randall "Tex" Cobb and Allan Lizard to do nothing, not to mention Nate "the Hatchet" Hackett). Meanwhile Packers rookie WRs Reed and Wicks have combined for 93 catches for 1200 yards and 10 TDs under the watchful eye of Jordan "Big,Big" Love. Nothing to do with this game. Just pointing out that the Packers cut ties with Pat McAfees BFF at just the right time. 

3 plays I just made

Bears +3(-115) *1.75/1.52

Bears ML(+140) *.34/.48

Rams +4(-110) *1.25/1.14

Good Luck 

I’ll be back home in a bit, sorry about the timeliness 

Do you actually live in Delaware? Probably not. People say that the Dakotas or Nebraska are the most unlikely states to ever meet a person from, but I'm convinced it's actually Delaware. Never met a soul who was born, raised, or lives in Delaware. Sorry for the ramble. Carry on...

Agreed. I've been a Patriots fan since Sam Bam Cunningham and Stanley Steamer Morgan (in my childhood of course). Recently I've never heard Belichick so kind and soft hearted to the media regarding his future while still maintaining his consummate professionalism. He's done and Mayo takes over. The big question is who's the next GM? Kraft better get that one right because Belly butchered the offense the last few years with his ill advised picks and FA signings. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/bears-ml-just-might-be-the-best-bet-on-the-board-in-week-18-103806937/1#last

Covers posters all ready know the fate of Fields, when literally nobody else knows besides Ryan Poles.

Looks like the Rams are sitting all the starters 

@sportschat

Falcons @ Saints -3/42.5

The Falcons could be in the driver's seat in the NFC South but having lost 3-4 they have to beat New Orleans and hope Carolina beats TB. Not surprisingly Atlanta is in this spot because of their inconsistent nature and consistency in the air and ground is desperately needed. Heinicke is questionable with an ankle but will likely play while Robinson needs a productive effort on the ground.

The Saints have won 3-4 and need a win and TB loss to advance to the playoffs. I'm not a huge Derek Carr fan although he has played well at times lately. The rushing attack has been okay as of late as well but overall the offense looks pedestrian to me so the defense has to make an impact. Atlanta and 3 point spreads are married this season but I'll lean to the team that is playing better and home.

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2024/1/3/24024159/rams-49ers-sit-starters-matthew-stafford-carson-wentz

Wentz vs Darnold. 

Definitely no McCaffrey. 

I think the Niners will go somewhat of the same rt with their starters. 

Browns @ Bengals -7/37.5

The surging Browns have won 4 straight entering their final game and have defied logic with their success despite numerous key injuries. Joe Flacco has been the savior but he and some starters will not play with Jeff Driskel getting the start which is the Browns 5th QB this year.

Jake Browning appeared to be on the verge of saving the Bengals when Burrow went down but some of the magic has gone following BTB losses to eliminate the team from the playoffs. Motivation for this one might be low for Cincinnati although some will be giving it their all with an eye to roster spots next season. This is a tough one to bet as this looks like 60 minutes of guys trying to not get hurt. Lean to the 7 pts bc it's a lot.

Bucs -4.5/37.5 @ Carolina 

TB appeared to be headed for the NFC South title with 4 wins in a row before coming up flat in a 23-13 loss to visiting New Orleans in week 17.yds vs NO  Mayfield has not always gotten a great deal of respect but his play at times has been solid at times. He threw for over 300 yds vs NO but also tossed two picks. I get the feeling the Bucs will only go so far with him under center although that's why I'm not an NFL coach.

Not much to say about a 2 win Carolina squad. The offense averages under 15 pts and a poor defense is nowhere good enough to keep them in games. The only positive I see for the Panthers is the season is not longer. The question here is can TB not overlook a bad Carolina and avoid a season ending loss. Lean to Bucs