Posted:
#151
Now 51.5
Keep at it.
CD Newsletter week 17
Posted:
#152
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Since Desaun Watson has been starting for the Browns, "sharps" have been betting the Browns. Someone is really bullish on them every game. I've been tracking the line movement. W13 @ Houston, -7 W W14 @ Cincinnati, +5.5 L W15 vs Ravens, +3 W W16 vs NO, -3 L Those folks have just lost juice so far, this week @ Washington is the rubber game so to speak, because they're all over the Browns again. 32% of tickets are on Cleveland, but 67% of the $. Watson: -21.8% dvoa, 37.3 qbr Wentz: -17.1% dvoa, 32.6 qbr Why even bet this game? Could Wentz ball out? Or does he crap himself? The more we look into this game, I think it would lean me towards the Commanders. But then I remember the disaster they had vs the Giants, where the refs had more of a say in that outcome rather than the play on the field. Does anything have to do with the owner, Daniel Snyder? He's one class A piece of crap.
Since Desaun Watson has been starting for the Browns, "sharps" have been betting the Browns. Someone is really bullish on them every game. I've been tracking the line movement. W13 @ Houston, -7 W W14 @ Cincinnati, +5.5 L W15 vs Ravens, +3 W W16 vs NO, -3 L Those folks have just lost juice so far, this week @ Washington is the rubber game so to speak, because they're all over the Browns again. 32% of tickets are on Cleveland, but 67% of the $. Watson: -21.8% dvoa, 37.3 qbr Wentz: -17.1% dvoa, 32.6 qbr Why even bet this game? Could Wentz ball out? Or does he crap himself? The more we look into this game, I think it would lean me towards the Commanders. But then I remember the disaster they had vs the Giants, where the refs had more of a say in that outcome rather than the play on the field. Does anything have to do with the owner, Daniel Snyder? He's one class A piece of crap.
Sharps are now 3-2 ats betting on Watson.
There's something else I read recently that probably had folks fading Washington. Teams after playing the Niners this year, are winless in their following game. The Niners really beat the shit out of teams. Wish I had this info earlier.
I might go with the Over here..if the star are align..
Posted:
#162
Here's how I'm playing tonight's game:
Over 4.5 total sacks(-125) *1.00/.80
Justin Tucker O1.5 FG's(-125) *1.25/1.00
Ravens ML(-110) *1.00/.91
The amount of $ coming in on Pitt is absurd at this point. The Steelers were -1.5 at home vs the Ravens, lost by 2. Where is the HFA flip? How is this a pk? Perhaps it's the news of the Pats beating Miami today, thus keeping Pitt's playoff hopes alive. In turn, they "must win" tonight.
If there were any tackle props in existence, I'd take Roquon over. He's averaged 8.15 tackles pg in night games in his career. The dude balls out for the cameras.
Good Luck
Posted:
#165
seahawks/Jags ML parlay next week, or tease, not sure yet. Whichever better odds, unless I can find a 3rd team I like and do a 10 pointer.
too early to tease plays on the lookaheads, and no ML available yet for me.
hawks are -6.5 home vs rams in must win
Jags are -7 home vs Titans in must win
be nice if Jags moves down to -6.5, and I can find another team, then tease to +3.5 on both.......lets see what materializes.
might add lions at +14.5, or even Pack at +5.5. Both sides may work. Feel bad for Lions, Goff outdoors on grass we saw vs Carolina a couple weeks ago. Different team for sure. Pack may be dancing.
NEED over 3.5 FG tonight. and the game to end in a 13 point or less win. LFG! lol Dobbins 58 yards also.
Posted:
#174
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3: The Patriots will be down 3 starters in the secondary on Sunday. This is shaping up to be a Teddy Bridgewater sweetspot. As much as I hate betting against New England I'm all in (2x bet) on the Dolphins +3. Narrative will be Belichick doesn't lose these games but Teddy presents a more difficult matchup than Tua because he can think himself thru a game. Let's go Both teams D about equal same with ground game that leaves air game and i'll take Miami's.Think i'll join ya on this one.
And of course i never got around to doing it. SUMBITCH
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3: The Patriots will be down 3 starters in the secondary on Sunday. This is shaping up to be a Teddy Bridgewater sweetspot. As much as I hate betting against New England I'm all in (2x bet) on the Dolphins +3. Narrative will be Belichick doesn't lose these games but Teddy presents a more difficult matchup than Tua because he can think himself thru a game. Let's go Both teams D about equal same with ground game that leaves air game and i'll take Miami's.Think i'll join ya on this one.
Posted:
#175
Painful loss for Ravens backers. I have officially lost more $ on the Shrimp than any other team this year.
Riddle me this. The Packers line against the Vikings was -3/-3.5 all week.
Week 18 against the Lions, it's -4.5.
How? Toss the Lions and Vikings records out the window and you will see that the Lions are a much better team. They are actually better than GB by weighted dvoa. I mean did the Lions do anything wrong in beating the Bears 41-10?
The Lions winning streak began with a 15-9 W vs the Packers. The Packers were -3.5 at Detroit for that one back in week 9. The Lions were 1-6 at the time. Since, the Lions have gone 7-2. With a 3 pt loss to the Bills, and the lone stinker game vs Carolina.
The Packers have found themselves in the hunt for the playoffs by ripping off 4 straight wins vs the Bears, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings. Not exactly a murderer's row.
Here's something interesting. Vs common opponents: The Lions and Packers are both 6-6, and their point differentials are both +5. By this alone it's saying that they're even teams.
Weighted dvoa gives the Lions a sliver of advantage. Lions #8 at 8.2%, Packers #10 at 7.8%.
Both teams are 8-8.
Lambeau is not a 4.5 pt advantage.
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