CD Newsletter week 17

@dubz4dummyz

 2.50 is the highest I have gone this year, if I had to guess I have gone there maybe 6 times? I believe I'm 6-0 or 5-1 on those, not 100% sure. My units won on the year will attest, as my winning % isn't all that great. All though hitting a few ML dogs for smaller amounts along the way has surely helped.

I have bet more than 2.50 only once this year, I went 3 units on the Redskins -4 vs the Giants and they lost outright. Funky shady ref game of the year. Ask JDD.

On a side note, the Commanders and Daniel Snyder have been knocked out of playoff contention. How or why they went to Carson Wentz in a do or die game is puzzling to say the least.

@undermysac

 I think Ron Rivera has been fooling me for years.  He seemed to not know that his team was eliminated if the Packers won yesterday.  Legit confusion when the reporter mentioned it.  

Imagine this......a person we see on TV is just not who we thought they were lol.  

First off, I disagree with his eye test on the QB situation, then the playoff confusion.  Oh well, guess HC jobs aren't always given to the smartest guy in the room, and maybe Cam Newton got Ron Rivera further than anyone may ever want to admit.

@undermysac

 Word is Rivera wanted the higher ceiling of wentz as opposed to the more limited ceiling of heinecke....I disagree as well.....also remember that nyg/wash game...funny cause wash got a TON of calls when they gave eagles 1st loss too

I find wager amount very interesting so thanks for insight into how you come to a decision.

I've been known to live in the past. Prosperity to you, Bisc.

Detroit is a cover machine v Pack (history-wise) but failed in the last 2 (-11.5 and -7) matches at Lamb.

@lbcake

 Those both goff v Rodgers? Thanks

@dubz4dummyz

 1 Goff     1 Stafford   Both have double effs, so basically the same QB.

I'm not advocating on behalf of a Rodgers play. Just killing time til my first cocktail.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-playoffs-week-18-clinching-scenarios-for-afc-and-nfc-contenders/

https://sports.yahoo.com/browns-linebacker-says-commanders-players-134751585.html

So if Seahawks play before Lions and win that knocks Lions out.

@Biscuiteater1

 Yup lions don't control their destiny. Only GB does with a win 

The flip side of that is if hawks lose... det/gb is win and in

Yup...not good for the early wager on Detroit I suppose. 

But they'd be jettison into the spoiler role, and that line should move.

Game times aren't official, but generally nfc north games are nooners, and the west coast teams play the 3:30 slot.

There appears to be a Utes fan invasion in DTLA according to a buddy of mine that lives there. I figured that might be some relevant info for those looking to bet the Utah-Penn St. fame. There's some steam coming in on Penn St., which doesn't bode well for my 2 unit play on Utah. Getting a good crowd there for Utah should help the Utes a little, I'd imagine.

Bengals 1 win away from North division! 

Here's an interesting scheduling nugget, pertaining to sos.

The Bills have only played 3 games vs teams who are currently better than .500

Vikings, lost 30-33

Chiefs, won 24-20

Ravens, won 23-20

Somehow their sos rating by dvoa is 10th. 15th sos per Sagarin.

I'm rooting for you, and our Bengals futures tickets

Taking a flyer on one more look ahead bet.

Patriots +7.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Seems like too many points for a divisional game where Belichick is the coach. The Bills haven't played yet, and have a hell of a game in store vs the Bengals. They should be beat up after tonight, and on a short week for the Pats.

Haha!

You could post stuff like this in the mains, and you'd get likes and followers 

Any of you guys have the to take the Giants ML+750?

Best of luck to us then. 

If they're at plus money I may have to consider putting another half-to-one unit on them. 

Well, now they're at +1.5 so I'm in the dreaded poker line or thinking in which I'm pot committed, but now wanting better value.

5 units on Utah, spanning -1, PK, and +2 (bought the hook). I'm either sitting pretty to start the week, or gonna be chasing my tail until Sunday night.

Alien just gave a 10 star rating for Penn St. to win, so I have to hope my other bets are help me recoup my losses.