Ok I'm just going to copy n paste an email between some gambling buddy's request for help in the SF and Philly game. A lot of this stuff you probably all ready know, and so does the gambling world by now. Hence the line movement. I still don't think it's enough...
So here's the run down on SF@PHI.
The Eagles are 10-1. They've won 5 in a row since losing to the Jets.
Beat Miami 31-17, legit win vs good team.
Then beat the Commanders 38-31. A game where Washington led all of first half, the game was tied twice, Wash out gained Philly 472 to 374. Philly 2 turnovers, Wash only 1. Wash won time of possession by 3 minutes. Philly still won.
Then Philly beat Dallas 28-23 at home. Dallas was winning 17-14 at half. This game was also tied twice. Dallas out gained Philly 406 to 292. Philly still won.
Then Philly beat KC 21-17. Chiefs were up 17-7 at halftime. Chiefs out gained Philly 336 to 238 yards. Chiefs won time of possession by 4 minutes. Philly still won.
Then Philly beat the Bills last week. They really had no fuckin business winning here at all. Bills were up 17-7 at halftime. The Eagles hit a 59 yard FG with 20 seconds left, in the rain to tie the game and send it to OT. Bills were up by 3 in OT. Bills out gained Philly 505 to 378 yards. Bills won time of possession by 14 minutes. The Bills had 11 penalties to the Eagles 4. Eagles win.
You're telling me that after beating the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills in 3 consecutive games, under the luckiest of circumstances, that they have anything left in the tank when a healthy Niners team comes to town?
Here's some more, in a nutshell.
SF played on Thursday last week, they are on 9 days rest. The Eagles played an OT game, it rained ALL game long. They are on 6 days rest.
The Eagles have the Cowboys on deck.
By dvoa: overall SF is #2, Philly is #9.
Offensive dvoa: SF #1, Philly #7.
Defensive dvoa: SF #6, Philly #17.
Luck rating:
SF #19, Philly #1
They have 4 common opponents this year. SF is +47 vs those, Philly is +34.
Brock Purdy has the best qbr in the nfl, 112.3. Jalen Hurts is #12 at 94.9.
Since week 10, after Niners bye and got Deebo and Trent Williams back: #2 in epa per play on offense, Philly #11. SF #1 in success rate, Philly #15.
Defense in same span:
SF #3 epa per play, Philly #22. SF #3 in success rate, Philly #21.
And don't forget the revenge factor. Philly fucked up Purdy's arm last year in the playoffs. Philly fucked em up 31-7. The Niners had only 83 pass yards with their backup.
They haven't forgotten.
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