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    All Forums | Penalty Box

    CD Newsletter Week 13

    «First Previous 123 ... 161718
    undermysac
    BIGDTITLE
    Getty3
    dubz4dummyz
    Biscuiteater1
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 598
    Posts: 450
    «First Previous 123 ... 161718
     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 12:27 PM ET #426

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:

    we now have a 30, 31, and 33 totals for the NFL this weekend.  Riveting stuff

    Sweet heart em over, Bears +16.5 4th leg thumbs_up

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:

    we now have a 30, 31, and 33 totals for the NFL this weekend.  Riveting stuff

    Sweet heart em over, Bears +16.5 4th leg thumbs_up

     
    BIGDTITLE
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 12:53 PM ET #427

    @undermysac

     
    Oh it’s being considered 

    Reply

    @undermysac

     
    Oh it’s being considered 

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 3:53 PM ET #428

    So in one night the Jaguars lose a very entertaining game, lose their QB for several weeks, lose their top WR for the year, show the country that their defense is a mirage and their offensive line is a weak link, and now have to go to Cleveland to play the best defense they've seen all year. 

    Jaguars ML when it's available 

    Reply

    So in one night the Jaguars lose a very entertaining game, lose their QB for several weeks, lose their top WR for the year, show the country that their defense is a mirage and their offensive line is a weak link, and now have to go to Cleveland to play the best defense they've seen all year. 

    Jaguars ML when it's available 

     
    BIGDTITLE
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 4:08 PM ET #429

    @Getty3

     

    you had me till the end......what a twist  an_timeout

    Reply

    @Getty3

     

    you had me till the end......what a twist  an_timeout

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 4:24 PM ET #430

    @BIGDTITLE

     Coach Pee was pissed off like no one has seen him after the game according to my inside source. He's got everyone's attention in that locker room and the guys love him. They'll show up in a big way. You wanna bet on Dorian Walker Flacco? That Cinci kid Browning who Shrimp stalked in high school is a real NFL QB. The Browns are a trio of clowns. And oh yeah, Jerry Ford sucks and Kareem Hunt has hit the the RB wall. 

     

    Reply

    @BIGDTITLE

     Coach Pee was pissed off like no one has seen him after the game according to my inside source. He's got everyone's attention in that locker room and the guys love him. They'll show up in a big way. You wanna bet on Dorian Walker Flacco? That Cinci kid Browning who Shrimp stalked in high school is a real NFL QB. The Browns are a trio of clowns. And oh yeah, Jerry Ford sucks and Kareem Hunt has hit the the RB wall. 

     

     
    dubz4dummyz
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 4:42 PM ET #431

    @Getty3

     Make sure ward and Garrett out

     

    Browns D splits home/road are wild

     

    Might only be a TD or 2 in that game 

    Reply

    @Getty3

     Make sure ward and Garrett out

     

    Browns D splits home/road are wild

     

    Might only be a TD or 2 in that game 

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:15 PM ET #432

    Quote Originally Posted by managerrasswipe:

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE: we now have a 30, 31, and 33 totals for the NFL this weekend.  Riveting stuff,,,,,that thing has 3team over parlay written all over it for our cyrax,,,,,,,,,,,

    an_roll_laugh

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by managerrasswipe:

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE: we now have a 30, 31, and 33 totals for the NFL this weekend.  Riveting stuff,,,,,that thing has 3team over parlay written all over it for our cyrax,,,,,,,,,,,

    an_roll_laugh

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:28 PM ET #433

    Starting week 14 now. Gonna be grueling 

    Reply

    Starting week 14 now. Gonna be grueling 

     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:34 PM ET #434

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Starting week 14 now. Gonna be grueling
    As lackluster as the card is at least it's not the Minnesota Gophers 5 - 7 bowl game. reallyhappy

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Starting week 14 now. Gonna be grueling
    As lackluster as the card is at least it's not the Minnesota Gophers 5 - 7 bowl game. reallyhappy

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:48 PM ET #435

    Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

    Since 2018 there have been 22 games lined at less than 36 with UNDER again dominating (18-4)  82%  

    Two games fit these conditions this upcoming week..........................gl  

    Think sac posted something similar

    I am not a trends guy. Not even a little bit, unless it is a trend between 2 teams playing each other.

    But every now and then a trend catches my eye, and this one does.

    BUT here the problem ...

    The shops who make the lines and take the bets know of this trend, and with each passing Under, they adjust the O/U lower. They continue to adjust until the trend is no longer a trend because the games start going Over.

    This trend might already be at the point of no value.

    Interesting nonetheless peace_5

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

    Since 2018 there have been 22 games lined at less than 36 with UNDER again dominating (18-4)  82%  

    Two games fit these conditions this upcoming week..........................gl  

    Think sac posted something similar

    I am not a trends guy. Not even a little bit, unless it is a trend between 2 teams playing each other.

    But every now and then a trend catches my eye, and this one does.

    BUT here the problem ...

    The shops who make the lines and take the bets know of this trend, and with each passing Under, they adjust the O/U lower. They continue to adjust until the trend is no longer a trend because the games start going Over.

    This trend might already be at the point of no value.

    Interesting nonetheless peace_5

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:50 PM ET #436

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    @managerrasswipe  DK still has Noles @ 14' I think i may grab that sucker. Bulldogs enthusiasm may be less that 100% where as the Noles have a polnt to prove.

    Interesting. I was thinking the opposite.

    FSU feels they should be in the playoff, and might not care at all about this game.

    While Ga can't possibly feel as cheated as the Noles dopeace_5

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    @managerrasswipe  DK still has Noles @ 14' I think i may grab that sucker. Bulldogs enthusiasm may be less that 100% where as the Noles have a polnt to prove.

    Interesting. I was thinking the opposite.

    FSU feels they should be in the playoff, and might not care at all about this game.

    While Ga can't possibly feel as cheated as the Noles dopeace_5

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 5:56 PM ET #437

    @Hugh_Jorgan

     The NFL prime time games have been an under gold mine this year but the TNF, SNF, and MNF all went over this week. It's a simple regression to the mean and that's what oddsmakers rely on. Once the word is out that something is hitting at a high rate, they adjust slightly but also know that the odds of regression will punish those late to the party.

    Reply

    @Hugh_Jorgan

     The NFL prime time games have been an under gold mine this year but the TNF, SNF, and MNF all went over this week. It's a simple regression to the mean and that's what oddsmakers rely on. Once the word is out that something is hitting at a high rate, they adjust slightly but also know that the odds of regression will punish those late to the party.

     
    BIGDTITLE
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:03 PM ET #438

    Clete Blakeman on Bolts Broncos game an_light

     

    cyrax engage 

    Reply

    Clete Blakeman on Bolts Broncos game an_light

     

    cyrax engage 

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:03 PM ET #439

    @Getty3

    Good point.

    "Late to the party" describes most trends peace_5

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    @Getty3

    Good point.

    "Late to the party" describes most trends peace_5

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:14 PM ET #440

    @managerrasswipe

     Brad Van Pelt, you on the Blueshirts tonight?

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    @managerrasswipe

     Brad Van Pelt, you on the Blueshirts tonight?

     
    bigred84
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:15 PM ET #441

    @Getty3

     Beathard is no bueno....an_shake

    Reply

    @Getty3

     Beathard is no bueno....an_shake

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:26 PM ET #442

    Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

    @Getty3  Beathard is no bueno....

    Discuss

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

    @Getty3  Beathard is no bueno....

    Discuss

     
    bigred84
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:36 PM ET #443

    Played at Iowa...Enough said....

    40 TDP 20  INT in college...

    Seem him play a few times....no

    What saves them is Flacco is done...

    If the Browns D plays like they normally do at home...GFL...

    That Jags D made the Bengals look like the Chiefs last night...peace_5

    Reply

    Played at Iowa...Enough said....

    40 TDP 20  INT in college...

    Seem him play a few times....no

    What saves them is Flacco is done...

    If the Browns D plays like they normally do at home...GFL...

    That Jags D made the Bengals look like the Chiefs last night...peace_5

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:50 PM ET #444

    Using any QB's numbers from Iowa (Fucking Iowa!!!) as a means of gauging his ability, is like going to a hospital in Gaza and judging the sanitary conditions while half the place has been hit by bombs.

    I'm not saying Beathard is good, but he's been in the NFL for 7 years.

    Maybe look at those numbers peace_5

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    Using any QB's numbers from Iowa (Fucking Iowa!!!) as a means of gauging his ability, is like going to a hospital in Gaza and judging the sanitary conditions while half the place has been hit by bombs.

    I'm not saying Beathard is good, but he's been in the NFL for 7 years.

    Maybe look at those numbers peace_5

     
    Getty3
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:54 PM ET #445

    Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

    Played at Iowa...Enough said.... 40 TDP 20  INT in college... Seem him play a few times....no What saves them is Flacco is done... If the Browns D plays like they normally do at home...GFL... That Jags D made the Bengals look like the Chiefs last night...

    Interesting the Ravens gave up 20+ points to the Bengals both times and just allowed 33 to the Browns. I'm sure the 2nd string nickel corner who got injured in the 1Q was the reason.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

    Played at Iowa...Enough said.... 40 TDP 20  INT in college... Seem him play a few times....no What saves them is Flacco is done... If the Browns D plays like they normally do at home...GFL... That Jags D made the Bengals look like the Chiefs last night...

    Interesting the Ravens gave up 20+ points to the Bengals both times and just allowed 33 to the Browns. I'm sure the 2nd string nickel corner who got injured in the 1Q was the reason.

     
    bigred84
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 7:07 PM ET #446

    @Getty3

     Humphrey All Pro CB  got hurt in the 2nd half...an_light

    Rock Ya Sin #23  took his place he couldnt cover you..

    Now the night manager at Food Lion....an_beatup

    Sorry Simba got hurt.....

    Tigger in the times Ive seen him in the NFL

    He reminds me of Colt McCoy....lacks arm strength....Fact...peace_5

    Reply

    @Getty3

     Humphrey All Pro CB  got hurt in the 2nd half...an_light

    Rock Ya Sin #23  took his place he couldnt cover you..

    Now the night manager at Food Lion....an_beatup

    Sorry Simba got hurt.....

    Tigger in the times Ive seen him in the NFL

    He reminds me of Colt McCoy....lacks arm strength....Fact...peace_5

     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 7:13 PM ET #447

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: @managerrasswipe  DK still has Noles @ 14' I think i may grab that sucker. Bulldogs enthusiasm may be less that 100% where as the Noles have a polnt to prove. Interesting. I was thinking the opposite. FSU feels they should be in the playoff, and might not care at all about this game. While Ga can't possibly feel as cheated as the Noles do
    This will be Bulldogs 1st game in 3 years where the outcome has no bearing on their Nat'l Champ. aspirations and after winning the last 2 it just seems they could be a little less interested in it. peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1: @managerrasswipe  DK still has Noles @ 14' I think i may grab that sucker. Bulldogs enthusiasm may be less that 100% where as the Noles have a polnt to prove. Interesting. I was thinking the opposite. FSU feels they should be in the playoff, and might not care at all about this game. While Ga can't possibly feel as cheated as the Noles do
    This will be Bulldogs 1st game in 3 years where the outcome has no bearing on their Nat'l Champ. aspirations and after winning the last 2 it just seems they could be a little less interested in it. peace_5

     
    Biscuiteater1
    Biscuiteater1
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    Joined: Jan, 2011
    Posts: 33327
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 7:15 PM ET #448

    @bigred84

     You are right about # 23. peace_5

    Reply

    @bigred84

     You are right about # 23. peace_5

     
    Hugh_Jorgan
    Hugh_Jorgan
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2002
    Posts: 22961
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 7:18 PM ET #449

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    This will be Bulldogs 1st game in 3 years where the outcome has no bearing on their Nat'l Champ. aspirations and after winning the last 2 it just seems they could be a little less interested in it.

    Fair point peace_5

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    This will be Bulldogs 1st game in 3 years where the outcome has no bearing on their Nat'l Champ. aspirations and after winning the last 2 it just seems they could be a little less interested in it.

    Fair point peace_5

     
     
    Hugh_Jorgan
    Hugh_Jorgan
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    Joined: Sep, 2002
    Posts: 22961
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 9:42 PM ET #450

    @managerrasswipe

    I bet the friggin Rangers an_burningbag

    bigreds daddy
    Reply

    @managerrasswipe

    I bet the friggin Rangers an_burningbag

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