CD Newsletter Week 13

I think Bigred’s threat of doxing me is based on pretty recent info.

Peroni is a nice crisp beer. I like it. For the Canadian stuff I'll take Labatts over Molson all day. 

No one is interrupting Mr. Consciuosness. We're just filling in the blanks while waiting for him to finish the NFL version of War and Peace. 

I would be forever in debt to anyone who sent me a Swiss Colony cheese and sausage gift tray. But you...you treat the giver of cheese and sausage like a leper.

Lions -4 @ Saints

This matchup is a lot more interesting. Both teams are fighting for their division, although the Lions have a stronghold on theirs for now.  The Lions are one of the best road teams in the league, and travelling south won't hurt them much. Both teams will be coming off a loss, but the Lions will have had a chance to recuperate a bit longer with 3 extra days of rest.

Edge on Defense: Saints
Edge on Offense: Lions

One will give way to the other.

A notable injury on the Saints side, with Lattimore placed on IR. Another name to monitor is Olave, as he suffered a concussion against the Falcons last week. Shaheed may be out as well. On the Lions side, Anzalone might be out. Their defense was a little concerning even with Anzalone suited up, but with home o

Don't forget, Dan Campbell was on the Saints coaching staff, and is also familiar with the Saints roster. Anzalone was a Saint with him. It would've been cool to lick his chops against his former team, but that may have to wait.

Lean:   Lions -4 (Road dogs and Campbell's familiarity with some of the Saints' personnel)

Okay, gonna power through. I think I was trying over deliver earlier on.

Cardinals @ Steelers -6

It's kind of difficult to use season stats for the Cardinals, given that they're a little bit different on offense with Kyler Murray behind center. He's looked okay coming back from injury. I trust the Steelers offense to keep Murray in the pocket, as they're good at limiting QB rushing yards. (The most they've given up is 45 yards to Lamar Jackson...and it's mfin Lamar Jackson, so what do you expect?)

Pickett doesn't elicit any excitement from me. He hasn't thrown a touchdown in his last 3 games, and only 1 touchdown in his last six. It's really been the Chris Boswell show, with a smattering of Najee Harris. Freirmuth has given the passing game a bit of life upon returning last week. He didn't find the end zone, but he gained 120 yards on 9 receptions. Perhaps he couldn't find the end zone due to the Bengals having a top 10 Red Zone defense. The Steelers should have an easier time within the 20 against the Cardinals, who rank in the bottom 10 with their Red Zone D.

I was leaning Cardinals at the beginning, but the more I think about it, I like what Freirmuth will bring to the offense in his second game back, and playing at home.

Lean: Steelers -6

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Chargers -6 @ Patriots

As previously mentioned, I don't think either side is a slam dunk play. If you want to look at angles and incentives, it's in Kroft's best interest at this point to get the highest draft pick at the disposal of whichever new GM and HC. Who knows what Belichick's motivation is. Maybe he's auditioning for the Chargers HC position next year. (Although I hope the Chargers FO doesn't look that direction.)

Justin Herbert, for the most part, has been phenomenal with what he's had to work with. But it's not putting up points on the board, with the exception of him erupting against the Lions. Unless Quentin Johnston ends up living up to his 1st round draft selection and has a big game, I don't see Keenan Allen shouldering the offensive load to the tune of however many points the Chargers will need to score to hit the over.

If the Chargers lose against the Patriots, I wouldn't even be mad at this point. I'll just laugh and start looking forward to draft season like I've done since the McCoy years. (Been a fan pre-Marty.) With that said, I'm not sure where the Patriots will get their points from either. Chargers run defense has been good this year, so the one area that is the Chargers weakness (pass defense) is not really going to matter much against the law office of Jones & Zappe.

Lean:   Chargers -6 & Under 40.5

Dolphins -9.5 @ Commanders

I thought this might be the first dog play I'd lean, but the Commanders are 0-4-1 ATS playing at home. I don't really like their offense, and watching Sam Howell take sacks is like letting a record skip without lifting the needle. I don't want to dive into this game, lest I lose my soul.

The Dolphins are 3-1 at the spread when favored by 9.5 points or more. The Commanders are 0-1 when they're at least a 9.5 underdog.

Commanders have the worst turnover margin in the NFL.

I don't think playing at home really helps them much here. The public is all over the Dolphins. Who could blame them?


Lean: Dolphins -9.5
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Broncos @ Texans -3.5

Like Stella, the Broncos are finding their groove. They've won their last 5 games. For as much well-deserved hype Stroud has been getting this year, Russell Wilson has quietly been putting up above average numbers himself:  

2,199 PASS YDS / 199.9 YPG / 68.3% / 20 TD / 4 INT / 53 CAR / 266 RUSH YDS / 1 TD

While the Texans have a good run defense, their pass defense is a little suspect and I think Wilson will be able to capitalize on that. I would say this is a must-win game for the Broncos moreso than the Texans, if they want to stay in the playoff race. 

Lean:  Broncos +3.5 and over 46

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Panthers @ Buccaneers -6

It's difficult to figure out what kind of offense will show up in the post-Reich era. This will be the first game since Frank was shown his walking papers. I don't think you can polish a turn of an offense, The Panthers put up an average of 15.7 ppg whereas the Buccs give up an average of 20.6. 

While I don't trust the Panthers offense to score much, I do trust the Panthers defense limit the Buccs. And I trust the Buccs defense to do what every other team has done when handing the Panthers their 1-10 record.

Lean:   Under 37

49ers @ Eagles -2.5

This is a revenge game for the 49ers, after losing to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game last year.

I just don't see the Eagles through the same lens I viewed them earlier in the season. They're still a team I think will go deep into the playoffs, but the 49ers have been playing as solid as any team in the NFL. They have the 3d best offense and 5th best defense. They're as balanced as you can get. They also have the best turnover margin at +11.

If you're betting the 49ers then you'll have to ignore how well the Eagles have been against the spread this year (7-2-2), and are 1-0 as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.

The Eagles came away last week playing a grueling overtime game against the Bills, so it's fortunate for them that they didn't have to travel, and that they will most likely get Lane Johnson back. Eagles have played some tight games this year, and I think they'll be facing the best team they've faced yet.

Lean: 49ers +2.5

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Browns @ Rams -3.5 

Now that Stafford, Kupp, and Pacua are all healthy together, and with the best back the Rams have had in a while in Kyren Williams, the Rams are looking like a solid team again. At least on offense.

The Browns are trotting out Dorian Thompson-Robinson again, and he's nicked up. The Browns have failed to score 14 points in its last two games.

The Browns have a very capable defense, though, so I like the under a lot. 

Lean: Rams -3.5 and under 39.5

Last two games...

Chiefs -6 @ Packers 

The Packers may be without 2 of their top 3 running backs, and that includes Aaron Jones. Doubs and Musgrave will be out too. 

Keep an eye out on the slippery turf in Green Bay. Players from the Chargers and Vikings both complained about it. Give that as an advantage to the Packers, as they'll be playing on a well-accustomed field. Maybe that'll be a problem?

The Chiefs defense has been shining this year. They rank 4th best in the league in allowing just 290 overall yards per game. Their might be some over-reaction with the Packers after they bested the Lions. Rashan Gary has been a beast, but outside of him the Packers defense is fair-to-middling.

I don't think the Packers will win, but I think they keep it within a TD.

Lean: Packers +6 and under 42

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Bengals @ Jaguars -8.5

Jake Browning will throw for 327 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT.  28 -10 kinda game. The loss will force the Jags to move to London. Sorry, Getty.  

In an alternate scenario, the Jags should cover this spread. The Bengals defense has been getting toyed with, and Lawrence looked good lats week. Browning doesn't move the needed on offense the way Burrow did. Even a struggling Burrow.

Lean: Under 38.5 

100 pct facts......Sad that he flipped out on me....

Sadly I kept the box he sent the food to me..

Go Badgerssssssss....Wisconsin Strong....

I have cousins who have a dairy farm near him..

Maybe I could come by for a nice winter meal....

ICON  well done buddy 

@iConsciousness

 Good job dude, thanks. 

Having read War and Peace (and being my favorite book), this is high praise, and deservedly so.

@iConsciousness

 Great stuff, a stream of consciousness, put into words.

@iConsciousness

 I think you’re leaning 49ers-2.5 .

Great write-ups 

Desmond Ridder / Tim Boyle ...good lord. Dough coming in pretty heavy though on Des, good luck with him. For every 2 good passes there will be 1 bad of some sort.

Had to look that word up......

Nothing but  the facts Jacks...

Great write up ...

Dead nut under my friend 

So I have to lean the dog with the points. Especially vs a dome team

Based on cumulative point differential the AFC North is the best conference in the league. In a surprising twist the much maligned AFC South is 2nd.

IC mentioned the Cardinals bottom 10 red zone defense. To compound matters they have allowed opposing offenses to march to the red zone 46% of the time. The league average is just 33%

The Eagles are 5-0 this year when trailing at the half. No other team is over .500

The Steelers last game before Matt Canada they gained over 400 yards. The next time they accomplished that feat was 44 games later, their first without Canada.

The Steelers ran 68 offensive plays last week their most of the season. Their average time to snap the ball was 2.5 seconds faster than average when Canada was there.

Since 2020 only GB/KC  WR Valdez-Scantling has a higher percentage of dropped passes than Michael Gallup.

@Biscuiteater1

 These 2 are as worthless as dental insurance 

On another note….Iowa first half team total is 0.5

On a related note if you had the Patriots team total under all year you'd be 10-1.