CD Newsletter #4

TNF. CINCI -3 Mia  O/U 48  Line opened at 1 and is now 3. The peeps will be on the Tua train while ignoring Cinci's better than average defense and an offense which is set to hit high gear sooner rather than later. Miami was a pre season darling (fruition) and the Bengals had the Super Bowl loser curse (fruition). Miami back to back upset wins in dramatic fashion. Will it happen 3 weeks in a row? I'll take the Bengals here at almost any number under 7. 3 is a gift.

Buff -3.5 SHRIMP O/U 52.5   Total opened at 55 at some books and has been bet down almost a field goal. Bills have given up their AFC crown to the Jags but I'm not the least bit concerned about this team. Shrimp are a 2 man offense consisting of the QB and his TE. The defense has been gashed so far. There is value in betting the over but I won't play the side. The fact that the oddsmaker made Buffalo a strong road favorite over a good team speaks to me but not enough to bet it at -3.5.

MINN -2 NO O/U 43.5   First London game of the year. I love the 9:30 AM starts. Bloody Mary with Clamato, celery,olives,and shrimp or crawfish. Just a dash of Worcestershire. There's a lot more to it than this but just understand thru 3 games New Orleans is +150 total yardage, Minnesota is -208. Just saying. Give me the better defense and a worthwhile offense plus the points.

PHIL -7 Jax O/U 48.5   The Eagles truthers are sitting pretty. The best team in the AFC thru 3 games is getting a number you'll never see again this year unless they have a vicious run of injuries. Did I mention that Doug Pederson left Philly on bad terms after winning a Super Bowl? 

Cleve -2.5 ATLA O/U 48   The total was hit hard by sharp money running from 45.5 to 48.5. I understand that. 2 fadeable teams with enough offensive juice to play a IDGAF 37-28 type game. Tease the total down. 

LACharge -6 HOU O/U 45.5   The cursed Chargers are once again the walking wounded. HC Staley and OC Lombardo are running the team into the ground much like every coach before them. Maybe they whip the Texans maybe they lose outright. I'll gamble on the latter. I just see a team on the collapse while Houston doesn't give a damn either way. They'll just show up and try.

IND -3 Tenn O/U 43   Tennessee's sneaky but expected win last week doesn't change the fact that they're a season long fade. Indy lost both games to Tenny last year which likely kept them out of the playoffs. The win over KC can be viewed as either a fluke or a turning point. I'm leaning on a Colts run to continue after an inauspicious start.

DALL -3 Wash O/U 42   I think this line tells us that the Cowboys have already lost to the Giants on MNF 09/26/22 (I can see into the future). I have no idea. I played Washington last week and got a Ron Rivera/Carson Wentz disaster. I'll simply defer to Hugh and/or BigD here. I've always hated Cowboys/Redskins games because it meant I had to listen to Summerall and Madden. One guy would put you to sleep and the other would wake you up like a jackhammer

NYG -3 Chica O/U 40. Why is this total at 40? Should be about half that. Bears coach Eberflus is ready to muck up a game with the best of them. Daboll is a creative guy who got the Giants a few wins but his offensive weapons are awful. Usually when a number sticks out like a sore thumb it's best to go opposite. Undersac is the resident Bears expert.

DET -6 Sea O/U 50.   Lions are 1-2 S/U and they want us to lay 6 points to Pete Carroll? Are you kidding me? Lions all day in a blowout.

PITT -3.5 NYJets O/U 42. Bless you fine people who want to bet this game. 

CAROL -1 Zona O/U 44.5.   Dumb number. Fade Arizona until proven otherwise. Matt Rhule has finally become a better HC than Kingsbury (low bar). McCaffrey looked good last week and Mayfield is getting comfortable. Cardinals a shitshow masquerading as a "good" team.

GB -10.5 Pats O/U39.5   LOL. So the Mac Jones injury has made the incompetent Packers a double digit fave after a lookahead line of only 6. OK. GB can't get right and this is not the time for it to happen against Belichick. Yes he's lost some marbles but not enough to lay this number. Steady dose of Harris and Stevenson all night. Just because both teams will be running a lot doesn't mean it's an under play. In fact I love the over here.

VEGAS -1.5 Den O/U 44.5   Raiders haven't scored a rushing TD all year. That will change. Don't think for a second that Hackett and Wilson are going to figure this Denver offense out. So much potential and yet so excruciatlingly bad. Denver can't keep winning with an average offensive output of 4 field goals per game. Give me Oakland.

Nice thoughts

Be curious to see dogs ats numbers in London games

Tua coming off minor concussion? 

Early numbers that caught my eye

Nyj/pit 42.5

Jax +7

KC -2.5 TAMPA O/U 44.   (SNF) Total opened at 47 an has been bet down to 45 and then 44. I get it. The Bucs are like the 2017 Jaguars. Run Fournette into the ground and hope the QB makes a few throws to horrible receivers while the defense does all the heavy lifting. KC sorely misses Hill's speed and Mahomes suffers because of it. I'd lean Tampa in an unlikely upset spot here. The Chefs are more bark than bite right now.

LARam -2.5 SFRISCO O/U 43   (MNF)   This game makes me wonder if 9 wins will be enough to win the NFC West this year. Problems everywhere for both teams but I believe the 49ers will have a better short term solution. Take the 49ers and forget about what you saw last night. 

With regards to KC/TAM, after this week, one of these teams will be 2-2 and on a 2 game losing streak.  Based on their respective divisions, KC would be in a much tougher spot with a loss this week.  KC plays Sunday night this week, and Mon night next week, at home, against LVR.

Hurricane could impact east coast games  

Grabbed Titans +300 to win Division, still think they get it right and schedule isn't too daunting.  Have to win the division games basically.  Last week grabbed KC at -110 also.  Still at that number after this week

@bluecompass

 I'm just not sold on the Chiefs this year. They'll have their moments but after a weak effort in Miami last week, I think they're in trouble against a Tampa team that a lot of people are dismissing. But I agree that the loser here is in a bad spot. 

This is the week where many Floridians will spend hundreds and even thousands of dollars at Publix and Home Depot for stuff that they won't need.

Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC last year despite being the 10th best team in DVOA power ranking. Total anomaly. That's not a good football team but they have a good head coach. The AFC South outside of Jacksonville sucks. But it's an effort conference. 

@Getty3

 Excellent work.

I'm agreeing with mostly everything you said. But I am not worried about kc at all. I was on Indy +7 and ML, saw that kc was in a terrible spot. Looking ahead to TB and Indy was in a do or die situation. 

I am glad that I waited on the Bears line, it's +3.5 now at betonline. I was going to happily take +3 and arbitrate after the Giants game tonight. That hook makes it much more appealing. 

Stat of the day, the Texans have been outscored 0-40 in the 4th quarter this season. 

Toothbrushes and shirts with sleeves?   

Big early $ steaming the Bengals, I see them -3(-130) at one book.

The public will surely be on the Fish, when that time comes for them to bet. This book in particular is looking hesitant to add the hook.

Cinci is my favorite play of the week.

Thanks, Getty.

@Getty3

 One of mine too, but this is getting crazy. -3.5(-115) at bovada, -4 at draft kings.

Look ahead was -1.

I'm feeling that Tua indeed has a concussion and won't be cleared by Thursday. If this is the case, the Dolphins should get fined or worse. I mean the dude clearly shook his head after banging his head off of the turf, then nearly collapsed. 

I know that we're not doctors here, but cmon

Week 4:

Bears +3.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Lines are moving like crazy, lot's of movement for a Monday.

Rooting for a Cowboys win tonight. Preferably an ass kicking. I don't want anyone to get hurt from the Giants, but if they do I won't cry. Maybe I can get a middle in what should be a really shitty game where the total is 38.5

Myles Garrett in single car crash, taken to hospital.  Injuries 'non-life threatening' but that is all that is known as of now

@Getty3

 Fantastic writeups 

Appreciate the read 

"PITT -3.5 NYJets O/U 42. Bless you fine people who want to bet this game."

If there is any better time to bench Trubisky and start Picket, wouldn't it be now with the extra days? I guess the other option would be after their bye in week 9...

I bet Tomlin is reluctant as Trubisky was named a captain. I'm also reading that fans are calling for the firing of Matt Canada as well.

Someone talk me out of betting on the mighty Joe Flacco getting points, what's the worst that could happen?

"CAROL -1 Zona O/U 44.5. Dumb number. Fade Arizona until proven otherwise. Matt Rhule has finally become a better HC than Kingsbury (low bar). McCaffrey looked good last week and Mayfield is getting comfortable. Cardinals a shitshow masquerading as a "good" team."

The Cards ran 81 plays to the Rams 46 and still lost. I'm liking AZ here Getty. 

Baker stat line vs the Saints: 12/25 160 yds, 1 td, 3 sacks. He didn't do anything, he just happened to face Jameis Winston who is awful. The Cards will face a lesser defense in the Panthers. 

Murray 37/58 314, 0 td, 0 int, 2 sacks vs rams

Under Matt Rhule, when the Panthers have given up 17 or more points, their record is 1-25. This still holds true as the Saints and mighty Jameis could only score 14.

Panthers sos#30, AZ #4.

Look ahead was AZ-2, value on Cards side and no one will want them.

We do think alike.. I'm on the Over 39.5 Big  

NFL 13-5-1 (+7.61)

MLB 2-3-1 (-0.91)

Bears +3.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Cardinals ML(+105) *1.00/1.05

Jets +3.5(-115) *1.00/.87

Raiders -2(-110) *2.00/1.82

Las Vegas is 0-3, it's truly do or die time. Go 0-4 and all dreams are toast, especially in the AFC West.

They have lost all their games by a combined 13 points. The Broncos are 2-1, and have won by a combined 7 points.

Carr has been slightly better than Russ this year.

The Raiders sos has been harder than the Broncos, #17 vs #31.

I'm surprised no one has said anything about how Mac Jones injury happened on a dirty play.

Campbell, who is a huge man, got to Jones's back, wrapped him and then lifted his own legs off the ground in an effort to collapse the QB bending him backwards.

If you watch the replay you will see what I am referring to ... well, for those who are objective