Posted:
#76
the LA/NO line went from LA -5.5 to - 4.5 at my book, with this "system" it won am I missing something Sarah?
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2011 NBA Playoffs: Profiting With Line Movements.
Posted:
#77
Why wasn't the over in the lakers gm a play for you (or was it with out posting?)...I was out for my buddies 32nd birthday and did the degenerate thing like look at my phone at 10:20pm while sitting in a packed bar listening to shitty rap music and quickly came up with a play...my play was solely based off the line movement involving the o/u...It stated on the covers odds page that the o/u line opened at 187 and it was actually sitting at 179.5 when I viewed it (an above poster stated he saw it open at 184)...that was a huge red flag, as it always is in my decision to play the over. Now I was unaware of any injuries if there were any and didn't look in depth, but the way I look at it is Vegas is pretty spot on w/ setting a #. The other night Chicago pushed at 4, Miami covered by 1.5 and Portland by 1 if you go by opening #'s...3 gms and off by 2.5 pts? The boys and girls (he-he, that's for you) are smart mo-fos. However, when the public (or sharps) move a line in a specific direction (7.5 pts is what I saw), I automatically go the opposite way, regardless of any previous thoughts I've had. I wish I could go back and chart my progress, but I will confidently say I hit 65-70% of my plays when this type of situation arises. Unfortunatly, lines don't move 4-5-6 pts very often....I see it as Vegas is smart enough to set it at 187 (it landed on 186, smart chicks in those rooms) and I'm getting 7 free pts to play with???.....This happens in football quite a bit as well, with most plays going to the under when making a play because of the obsession with overs in football..game opens at 44.5, public bets it to 47.5 or 48 (see sunday and monday night gms), I play the under and we have 24-21 final and I win...I was even more confident in my play when a fellow degenerate of mine text me the same under play, as he and I have had this discussion many times and agree on our philosophy...(he text me cuz he don't "know" my local, so I text in his plays)...thanks for the read it was interesting and thanks for reading my babble...Good Luck tonight
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Posted:
#79
Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:
Why wasn't the over in the lakers gm a play for you (or was it with out posting?)...I was out for my buddies 32nd birthday and did the degenerate thing like look at my phone at 10:20pm while sitting in a packed bar listening to shitty rap music and quickly came up with a play...my play was solely based off the line movement involving the o/u...It stated on the covers odds page that the o/u line opened at 187 and it was actually sitting at 179.5 when I viewed it (an above poster stated he saw it open at 184)...that was a huge red flag, as it always is in my decision to play the over. Now I was unaware of any injuries if there were any and didn't look in depth, but the way I look at it is Vegas is pretty spot on w/ setting a #. The other night Chicago pushed at 4, Miami covered by 1.5 and Portland by 1 if you go by opening #'s...3 gms and off by 2.5 pts? The boys and girls (he-he, that's for you) are smart mo-fos. However, when the public (or sharps) move a line in a specific direction (7.5 pts is what I saw), I automatically go the opposite way, regardless of any previous thoughts I've had. I wish I could go back and chart my progress, but I will confidently say I hit 65-70% of my plays when this type of situation arises. Unfortunatly, lines don't move 4-5-6 pts very often....I see it as Vegas is smart enough to set it at 187 (it landed on 186, smart chicks in those rooms) and I'm getting 7 free pts to play with???.....This happens in football quite a bit as well, with most plays going to the under when making a play because of the obsession with overs in football..game opens at 44.5, public bets it to 47.5 or 48 (see sunday and monday night gms), I play the under and we have 24-21 final and I win...I was even more confident in my play when a fellow degenerate of mine text me the same under play, as he and I have had this discussion many times and agree on our philosophy...(he text me cuz he don't "know" my local, so I text in his plays)...thanks for the read it was interesting and thanks for reading my babble...Good Luck tonight
Why wasn't the over in the lakers gm a play for you (or was it with out posting?)...I was out for my buddies 32nd birthday and did the degenerate thing like look at my phone at 10:20pm while sitting in a packed bar listening to shitty rap music and quickly came up with a play...my play was solely based off the line movement involving the o/u...It stated on the covers odds page that the o/u line opened at 187 and it was actually sitting at 179.5 when I viewed it (an above poster stated he saw it open at 184)...that was a huge red flag, as it always is in my decision to play the over. Now I was unaware of any injuries if there were any and didn't look in depth, but the way I look at it is Vegas is pretty spot on w/ setting a #. The other night Chicago pushed at 4, Miami covered by 1.5 and Portland by 1 if you go by opening #'s...3 gms and off by 2.5 pts? The boys and girls (he-he, that's for you) are smart mo-fos. However, when the public (or sharps) move a line in a specific direction (7.5 pts is what I saw), I automatically go the opposite way, regardless of any previous thoughts I've had. I wish I could go back and chart my progress, but I will confidently say I hit 65-70% of my plays when this type of situation arises. Unfortunatly, lines don't move 4-5-6 pts very often....I see it as Vegas is smart enough to set it at 187 (it landed on 186, smart chicks in those rooms) and I'm getting 7 free pts to play with???.....This happens in football quite a bit as well, with most plays going to the under when making a play because of the obsession with overs in football..game opens at 44.5, public bets it to 47.5 or 48 (see sunday and monday night gms), I play the under and we have 24-21 final and I win...I was even more confident in my play when a fellow degenerate of mine text me the same under play, as he and I have had this discussion many times and agree on our philosophy...(he text me cuz he don't "know" my local, so I text in his plays)...thanks for the read it was interesting and thanks for reading my babble...Good Luck tonight
I haven't looked at O/U's, that's the only reason I didn't post the Totals. It was a great pick in hindsight.
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Posted:
#81
i am curious why you think a .5 movement is significant? I made some coin during ncaa tourney with movement but i went with it. Some examples are Xavier/marquette game and the byu/zags game.. Both were 2 pt swings. Only one i can think of off the top of my head that lost was the SD st/uconn game.
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:
Line movement doesn't tell you shit. Everyone knows that books want to balance the action so they can try to guarantee a profit. If you find some sort of gimmick or trend and profit from line movement then good for you.
Line movement doesn't tell you shit. Everyone knows that books want to balance the action so they can try to guarantee a profit. If you find some sort of gimmick or trend and profit from line movement then good for you.
If the Bulls begin at -3, and then move to -3.5, what does that tell you? Nothing?
It tells me the initial action came in on the Bulls, but maybe that's too extreme thinking for you?
("Line movement doesn't tell you shit." What an ignorant comment.)
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Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:
If the Bulls begin at -3, and then move to -3.5, what does that tell you? Nothing?
It tells me the initial action came in on the Bulls, but maybe that's too extreme thinking for you?
("Line movement doesn't tell you shit." What an ignorant comment.)
If the Bulls begin at -3, and then move to -3.5, what does that tell you? Nothing?
It tells me the initial action came in on the Bulls, but maybe that's too extreme thinking for you?
("Line movement doesn't tell you shit." What an ignorant comment.)
That tells me action is on the bulls. The end.
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Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:
It's funny how you think it would be significant. Basing bets of line movements of .5's. Your an awful capper and this "system" will prove itself in time. Eventually this thread is going to be looking as stupid as your Oregon ducks thread.
It's funny how you think it would be significant. Basing bets of line movements of .5's. Your an awful capper and this "system" will prove itself in time. Eventually this thread is going to be looking as stupid as your Oregon ducks thread.
I would respond to this, but I remember when you came into my NBA threads, called the plays "awful," and then looked like a fool when they won. It was comedy. Please exit stage left. Thanks!
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Posted:
#93
Quote Originally Posted by vasilli07:
sarah, you going to post any picks for the 1st game later?
sarah, you going to post any picks for the 1st game later?
If you're looking to follow this trend solely, then it looks like Chicago is the play so far---this is only a slight movement, and I expect more action from the public at tip-off nears. So, hang tight.
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Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by ABooksNightmare:
It says photoshopped....and a very poor attempt at that as well....nice skillz
It says photoshopped....and a very poor attempt at that as well....nice skillz Ha. And when you lose bets, it's all a conspiracy too, yeah? Conspiracy theorists make me laugh.
Oh, and BTW, remember how you said the picture wouldn't be removed from that website? Wrong again.
I'm sorry I make your man part feel smaller than it already is, but I'm here to stay.
Have a good day little man.
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