2011 NBA Playoffs: Profiting With Line Movements.

I typically only study line movements in the postseason because the action is significant enough, in my opinion, to matter.

For NCAA March Madness, I utilized a simple betting strategy which faded line movements and tracked the progress of such a “system.” It was hugely profitable and noticed heavily in the Covers Mains.

I have begun utilizing the same line movement study in the 2011 NBA Playoffs, and according to my Sportsbook, going against the line movements from opening line to closing line has yielded nine wins, two losses and 1 push. Seven games did not qualify because there was no line movement, or the movement was induced by a key injury (Manu Ginobili).

Here are the detailed results:
Chicago Bulls/Indiana Pacers
Game 1
Chicago Bulls opened at -11 and closed at -12.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 104-99.
Result: Pacers +12.5 (WIN)

Game 2
The line moved towards Indiana, and Indiana did cover.
Result: (LOSS)

Game 3
Chicago Bulls opened at -4.5 and closed at -3.5.
Chicago Bulls won the game 88-84.
Result: Bulls -3.5 (WIN)

Miami Heat/Philadelphia 76ers
Game 1
No movement.

Game 2
Miami Heat opened at -9.5 and closed at -9.
Miami Heat won the game 93-74.
Result: Heat -9 (WIN)

Game 3
No movement.

Orlando Magic/Atlanta Hawks
Game 1
Orlando Magic opened at -8 and closed at -9.
Atlanta Hawks won the game 103-93.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)

Game 2
Orlando Magic opened at -8.5 and closed at -9.
Orlando Magic won the game 88-82.
Result: Hawks +9 (WIN)

Portland Trail Blazers/Dallas Mavericks
Game 1
Dallas Mavericks opened at -5.5 and closed at -4.5.
Dallas Mavericks won the game 89-81.
Result: Mavericks -4.5 (WIN)

Game 2
No movement.

Game 3
The line moved towards Portland, and the Blazers ending up with a PUSH.

San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies
Game 1
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.
 
Game 2
Line movement was a result of Ginobili speculation.

Los Angeles Lakers/New Orleans Hornets
Game 1
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -10 and closed at -11.
New Orleans Hornets won the game 109-100.
Result: Hornets +11 (WIN)

Game 2
Los Angeles Lakers opened at -11.5 and closed at -12.
Los Angles Lakers won the game 87-78.
Result: Hornets +12 (WIN)

Boston Celtics/New York Knicks
Game 1
No movement.

Game 2
No movement.

Oklahoma City Thunder/Denver Nuggets
Game 1
Oklahoma City Thunder opened at -4.5 and closed at -6.
Oklahoma City Thunder won the game 107-103.
Result: Nuggets +6 (WIN)

Game 2
The line moved towards Oklahoma City, and Oklahoma City did cover.
Result: (LOSS)

I don’t recommend simply viewing line movements and making wagers, but I do recommend taking this trend into consideration when finalizing your capping of individual games.

I accidentally submitted this thread twice.

Mods, will you delete the other thread/blog entitled: "Topic: 2011 NBA Playoffs: Line Movements Matter."

Thanks!

Aww. Thumbs down? Dang.

Interesting.  Basically, your theory is bettors are collectively stupid.  You might be on to something. But the sample is too small for now.

I also watched the lines move to my favor and won many games just on line movment this post season.

I found one of the NCAA posts detailing the same strategy from this past season.

 whyd you leave boston game 1 out?

Maybe at your Sportsbook, but not at mine.

nice work...

Well, when 90%+ of the industry is made up of losing bettors, then I don't think it qualifies as a theory anymore. '

Keep in mind: there's no concrete evidence suggesting these line moves were made by sharps, or the betting public. Someone's losing though.

then whats the use for others who dont have your sportsbook???

I've noticed it works for the 2H O/U too.... (for my book)

Hi, I'm new to basketball betting. Will you be posting your picks?

Your record would be 8-3-1 based off your Sportsbook numbers which is probably significantly higher than your current W/L record.

Please respect my thread or leave.

I'm not much of a Totals player, so I'll have to look into those numbers, too.

Good luck tonight.

Yes. I took last night off from betting to watch my team (Portland Trail Blazers).

 did i hurt your feelings??

No. I don't need your "let's party" comments in my thread.

Thanks for obliging.

ok sorry. just having fun. sorry

ive been trying to find out ways stacking dough u might be onto some thing.   it its kinda sick talking sports wit a girl celebrity. sarah u eva come to jerzy i got blunts tha size of dutches filled wit straight bannana kush.

Thanks. I will be following this thread closely,

duh-oh! u beat me to it!

I'll post the plays which fall under these conditions 10 minutes before tip off of each game.