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This is a dream matchup -- the best two franchises in the AFL on a national stage. Although Orlando had a hiccup in Week 2 versus Los Angeles, the Predators are back on track, playing efficient offense and aggressive, attacking defense. Dallas has been near-perfect in all phases of the game this season. It can control the flow on offense or defense, and has yet to really be pushed.
There is a revenge factor here, too, because the Desperados were the best team in the AFL a year ago but Orlando upset them in the conference title game. This Week 4 contest could be a playoff preview.
When Dallas has the ball
The Desperados have players at or near the top in nearly every individual offensive category and have playmakers at every position. QB Clint Dolezel has a passer rating of 133.2 and has thrown 18 TD passes with only one interception. WR Marcus Nash is among the league leaders in receiving yards (384), and FB Josh White is the leading rusher in the league with 99 yards and six TDs. This versatility gives Dallas the flexibility to adjust its game plan to anything a defense shows.
This is a smart pass offense that is tops in the league and rarely makes a mistake or turns the ball over. Orlando, meanwhile, has one of the best overall defenses in the AFL, with playmakers in S Lin-J Shell, CB Ryan Bowers, DE Greg White and LB Marlon Moye-Moore. That gives the Predators the versatility and flexibility to matchup in either man-to-man or zone schemes.
The Predators will try to come after Dallas with a big pass rush to hurry Dolezel. They might also try to take away WR Nash with Shell or Bowen, which could leave Dallas WR Will Pettis as the go-to guy. Dallas isn't all that deep in its receiving corps, so taking away a big target like Nash could really hurt the passing game.
If Orlando succeeds in getting pressure on Dolezel, the Desperados could resort to a quick, short passing game. It's also possible they could negate the pressure by running the football. In Week 2, Dallas controlled the clock for 10 minutes in the fourth quarter, and last week they ran the ball 18 times against Kansas City. This is a great chess match between two smart veteran units.
When Orlando has the ball
With the exception of a lackluster performance in Week 2 versus Los Angeles, the Predators offense has been very efficient led by new QB Shane Stafford. He has posted a solid 110.0 passer rating through three games, with 12 TDs and only one interception. He is being coached by one of the best offensive minds in the AFL in Jay Gruden.
Orlando's offense actually is much like Dallas'. Both love to run the football -- Orlando had 18 rushing attempts last week versus Austin -- and preach mental toughness and minimizing mistakes. However, Dallas is the No. 1 pass defense in the AFL. Not only do they make plays in the secondary -- they have five interceptions -- but they also can matchup in either zone or man with three versatile DBs (Jermaine Jones, Chris Brown, and Pettis).
If the Orlando passing game has a weakness, it might be the ability of its receivers to separate from tight man-to-man coverage. If Dallas gets physical in the secondary and generates a good pass rush up front, it should disrupt the timing of Stafford. The receiving duo of Javarus Dudley and DeAndrew Rubin need to have a big day, but the Predators also need a third receiver to emerge -- either Jimmy Fryzel or Jerrian James -- to spread the Dallas secondary. Orlando could try to run the ball to negate the Dallas pass rush, then pick its spots in the passing game. But above all else, the Predators must take care of the football.
Dallas keys to success
• Mix up defensive coverages: In Week 2, Los Angeles totally frustrated the Orlando receivers with aggressive man-to-man schemes and some press coverage. Dallas has three defensive backs who can play those schemes, and with a good pass rush up front Dallas can disrupt the timing of Predators passing game. • Run the football: Dallas has the leading rusher in the AFL in White and is physical up front. They can control the clock with the run game if they need to. Orlando is capable of playing good run defense but can be exposed by creative run schemes in the red zone.
• Don't let it come down to the kicking game: For a championship caliber team, there are concerns that the Dallas kicking game is a revolving door of instability. The newest kicker is Todd Sievers, who was solid in his debut last week versus Kansas City. But attempting a winning field goal at Orlando is not exactly the way to break in the new guy. The coaches will try to avoid letting this game come down to a late field goal try.
Orlando keys to success
• Run the football: Like Dallas, Orlando loves to run the football, especially when it is struggling offensively and needs to develop a swagger. The Predators ran the ball 18 times last week versus Austin and it changed the complexion of the game. But Dallas has a good run defense and does a nice job of attacking the line of scrimmage.
• Spread the field: Two weeks ago, Los Angeles pushed around the Orlando receivers, who had trouble separating from tight coverage, and it really hindered the timing of the Predators' passing game. If Dallas tries to play man-to-man coverage, the Orlando receivers must use motion and quickness to avoid contact and get away from the press. If they don't, the Dallas pass rush will get to Stafford.
• Create big plays on defense: Orlando controlled the Austin offense last week by making big plays and creating four turnovers. Dallas, however, doesn't make a lot of mistakes or turn the ball over. The Predators need to take some chances, jump some routes and not let the Desperados offense get into a flow where it can control the pace of the game.
Prediction
These are two battle-tested teams that know each other well and have a lot of similarities. Both like to run the football and rely on an efficient passing game with few mistakes. They also have veteran defenses that are capable of big-time pressure and game-changing plays. Orlando must slow down Dallas' Nash, and Dallas must control Orlando's Dudley. That leaves the running game and creativity in the red zone as big factors, along with the defensive pressure each team can generate.
The two biggest concerns are the ability of the Orlando receivers to separate from tight coverage and Dallas' kicking game. Orlando is tough to beat at home, but Dallas is hitting on all cylinders right now. The Desperados should use this nationally televised game to establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFL in 2007.
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