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    All Forums | Other Pro Football

    Hedge it or Get ready for a damn championship?? OPINIONS

    KinKAID
    batottu
    claycourtlesson
    kingme
    delsgpi220
    ...
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    KinKAID
    KinKAID
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:23 AM ET #1

    $ 75.23 wagered to win $ 1,666.71 at 07/26/2008 7:46:14 PM
    Odds : 22.15 to 1 PARLAY
    COMMITTED     $ 75.23

    07/27/2008 3:00:00 PM ARE SAN SABERCATS to Win +4(-110)
    SAN SABERCATS vs PHI SOUL
    ARENA BOWL XXII @ New Orleans LA / On ABC   
        
    07/26/2008 8:00:00 PM AUT Athlete to Win Brad Keselowski Even(-135)
    Brad Keselowski vs Jason Keller
    Nationwide Kroger 200 - Matchups
    Driver vs Driver Matchups - Must Start
    status : WIN     
      
    07/26/2008 9:05:00 PM MLB ARIZONA to Win Even(-118)
    ARIZONA (B WEBB) vs SAN FRANCISCO (T LINCECUM)
    Pitching Option :action
    ARIZONA 5 SAN FRANCISCO 3
    status : WIN        

    07/26/2008 10:10:00 PM MLB RL-LOS DODGERS to Win -1.5(100)
    RL-WASHINGTON (O PEREZ) vs RL-LOS DODGERS (D LOWE)
    Pitching Option :listed        
     (LA wins 6-0)  WIN

    07/26/2008 10:05:00 PM WNBA SACRAMENTO MONARCHS to Win -5(-110)
    INDIANA FEVER 62 SACRAMENTO MONARCHS 70
    status : WIN
     
     
    Also noteworthy that I'll be watching the game on a 42" plasma so the action would be that much better. Smart play is to hedge though...
     
    THOUGHTS...
     
    K2
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    $ 75.23 wagered to win $ 1,666.71 at 07/26/2008 7:46:14 PM
    Odds : 22.15 to 1 PARLAY
    COMMITTED     $ 75.23

    07/27/2008 3:00:00 PM ARE SAN SABERCATS to Win +4(-110)
    SAN SABERCATS vs PHI SOUL
    ARENA BOWL XXII @ New Orleans LA / On ABC   
        
    07/26/2008 8:00:00 PM AUT Athlete to Win Brad Keselowski Even(-135)
    Brad Keselowski vs Jason Keller
    Nationwide Kroger 200 - Matchups
    Driver vs Driver Matchups - Must Start
    status : WIN     
      
    07/26/2008 9:05:00 PM MLB ARIZONA to Win Even(-118)
    ARIZONA (B WEBB) vs SAN FRANCISCO (T LINCECUM)
    Pitching Option :action
    ARIZONA 5 SAN FRANCISCO 3
    status : WIN        

    07/26/2008 10:10:00 PM MLB RL-LOS DODGERS to Win -1.5(100)
    RL-WASHINGTON (O PEREZ) vs RL-LOS DODGERS (D LOWE)
    Pitching Option :listed        
     (LA wins 6-0)  WIN

    07/26/2008 10:05:00 PM WNBA SACRAMENTO MONARCHS to Win -5(-110)
    INDIANA FEVER 62 SACRAMENTO MONARCHS 70
    status : WIN
     
     
    Also noteworthy that I'll be watching the game on a 42" plasma so the action would be that much better. Smart play is to hedge though...
     
    THOUGHTS...
     
    K2
     
    batottu
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 10:40 AM ET #2

    Sounds like 1600 is alot of money to you (not trying to make fun of you) so maybe you hedge some. Hedging is never smart b/c you pay extra juice, but you could hedge 500. You would still want SJ to cover and therefore the game would be fun. It all depends on how much 1600 means to you. BOL either way
    Reply
    Sounds like 1600 is alot of money to you (not trying to make fun of you) so maybe you hedge some. Hedging is never smart b/c you pay extra juice, but you could hedge 500. You would still want SJ to cover and therefore the game would be fun. It all depends on how much 1600 means to you. BOL either way
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 11:21 AM ET #3

    Any time you can get a strong middle opportunity, you do it.
     
    End of story.
    Reply
    Any time you can get a strong middle opportunity, you do it.
     
    End of story.
     
    kingme
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:10 PM ET #4

    You like the bet when you make it so stick with it.  If not you would have made a 4 teamer
     
    dont be a box - hedging is pussies
    Reply
    You like the bet when you make it so stick with it.  If not you would have made a 4 teamer
     
    dont be a box - hedging is pussies
     
    kingme
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:15 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

    Any time you can get a strong middle opportunity, you do it.
     
    End of story.

    I could not disagree more.  There are many similarities to wagering sports to the stock markets, as there is here.  Rookie traders tend to lock in their profits after a decent gain.  More times than not, they left the big cash on the table.  If you stick with the priciples that made you buy that stock you see it gain more and more when you guess right. 

    There are many costs to hedging, and they are mostly stransparent because you come out plus cash and all is good.  Long term, hedging is the wrong strategy IF nothing has changed your mind of the pick from when you made it.

    Ride out the play, and give yourself to hit the way you planned.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

    Any time you can get a strong middle opportunity, you do it.
     
    End of story.

    I could not disagree more.  There are many similarities to wagering sports to the stock markets, as there is here.  Rookie traders tend to lock in their profits after a decent gain.  More times than not, they left the big cash on the table.  If you stick with the priciples that made you buy that stock you see it gain more and more when you guess right. 

    There are many costs to hedging, and they are mostly stransparent because you come out plus cash and all is good.  Long term, hedging is the wrong strategy IF nothing has changed your mind of the pick from when you made it.

    Ride out the play, and give yourself to hit the way you planned.

     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:24 PM ET #6

    Disagree Kingme, totally.
     
    You got a chance for a huge middle with 2H line (for example)?
     
    You do it.
     
    Stock market and sports gambling are apples and oranges.  Don't even go there.
    Reply
    Disagree Kingme, totally.
     
    You got a chance for a huge middle with 2H line (for example)?
     
    You do it.
     
    Stock market and sports gambling are apples and oranges.  Don't even go there.
     
    kingme
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:37 PM ET #7

    I admit that I hedge in this situation - but only for the amount wagered.  Very little amount so you can enjoy the last leg knowing its house money that has now paid for the action, and you cannot lose.
     
    BUT only enough to cover the original cost of the wager.
    Reply
    I admit that I hedge in this situation - but only for the amount wagered.  Very little amount so you can enjoy the last leg knowing its house money that has now paid for the action, and you cannot lose.
     
    BUT only enough to cover the original cost of the wager.
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:38 PM ET #8

    Reply
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:39 PM ET #9

    Reply
     
    delsgpi220
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:54 PM ET #10

    Hedge it.....Something is better than nothing...IMO
    Reply
    Hedge it.....Something is better than nothing...IMO
     
    accventures
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 12:58 PM ET #11

    Reply
     
    Markymark2281
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 1:19 PM ET #12

    Agree - at least hedge the amount of the wager.  Personally I'd hedge to ensure a couple hundred profit here, but that's just me 
    Reply
    Agree - at least hedge the amount of the wager.  Personally I'd hedge to ensure a couple hundred profit here, but that's just me 
     
    HOFFA44
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 1:59 PM ET #13

    If you decide to hedge, you should lay 660---that way you either win 525 or 1000
    Reply
    If you decide to hedge, you should lay 660---that way you either win 525 or 1000
     
    TheHerd70
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 2:13 PM ET #14

    KinKaid:
     
    The last leg of your parlay is for a San Jose Win or cover +4. Keep in mind that one of their receivers is out for the game and IMO the Arena league really wants the high profile of a Jon Bon Jovi owner win.
     
    San Jose has the experience of previous Arena Bowls.
     
    Personally, I understand that it takes money to make money and it is quite easy for others on this site to recommend not hedging as they are not playing with your money. My preference is always hedging. If I have a small parlay I usually hedge the amount of the original wager, however, if it is going to be a substantial payout I hedge half of the original parlay. If you have it in your bankroll you could hedge half and you are GUARANTEED to take home $833.35. Not bad for a days work.
     
    I like to play early afternoon games a 7PM game and then a west coast game. If the first two legs of my parlay hit I love to hedge the last game knowing I made a profit. There is just something about sleeping better knowing I can wake up and not give a damn about the outcome of the late game - I made $$ either way.
     
    A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
     
    Go get a keg with your guaranteed $833.35. Invite your friends over and enjoy the game.
     
    Either way you play it I respect your decision as afterall it is your money to win or lose.
     
    Good luck with whatever you do. 
     
    GO HERD!
    Reply
    KinKaid:
     
    The last leg of your parlay is for a San Jose Win or cover +4. Keep in mind that one of their receivers is out for the game and IMO the Arena league really wants the high profile of a Jon Bon Jovi owner win.
     
    San Jose has the experience of previous Arena Bowls.
     
    Personally, I understand that it takes money to make money and it is quite easy for others on this site to recommend not hedging as they are not playing with your money. My preference is always hedging. If I have a small parlay I usually hedge the amount of the original wager, however, if it is going to be a substantial payout I hedge half of the original parlay. If you have it in your bankroll you could hedge half and you are GUARANTEED to take home $833.35. Not bad for a days work.
     
    I like to play early afternoon games a 7PM game and then a west coast game. If the first two legs of my parlay hit I love to hedge the last game knowing I made a profit. There is just something about sleeping better knowing I can wake up and not give a damn about the outcome of the late game - I made $$ either way.
     
    A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
     
    Go get a keg with your guaranteed $833.35. Invite your friends over and enjoy the game.
     
    Either way you play it I respect your decision as afterall it is your money to win or lose.
     
    Good luck with whatever you do. 
     
    GO HERD!
     
    iron_mike
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 2:41 PM ET #15

    bottom line is you are getting 22-1 on your money on a game that everyone else is laying -110 on....i would buy your ticket from you for 500 just to get the 3-1 odds on the game...keep the parlay and don't hedge...
    Reply
    bottom line is you are getting 22-1 on your money on a game that everyone else is laying -110 on....i would buy your ticket from you for 500 just to get the 3-1 odds on the game...keep the parlay and don't hedge...
     
    Ahambone111
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 6:09 PM ET #16

    So did you hedge or not?

    A winner either way, but I sure hope that you didn't hedge- you'd be the beneficiary of a gift of a moose.

    Either way, congrats.
    Reply
    So did you hedge or not?

    A winner either way, but I sure hope that you didn't hedge- you'd be the beneficiary of a gift of a moose.

    Either way, congrats.
     
    batottu
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 6:15 PM ET #17

    Yea if you let that ride then you are the luckiest man alive today. Either way nice hit b/c I'm sure you hedged a third at the most
    Reply
    Yea if you let that ride then you are the luckiest man alive today. Either way nice hit b/c I'm sure you hedged a third at the most
     
    NostradomusJr
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 6:16 PM ET #18

    If you didn't, God truly loves you.   Even the redo 2-point conversion for the win!  What a crazy game spread wise.
    Reply
    If you didn't, God truly loves you.   Even the redo 2-point conversion for the win!  What a crazy game spread wise.
     
    KinKAID
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 7:37 PM ET #19

    DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES???
     
    Cliche but the only thing I could think of to start screaming when whatever the hell happened with :32 left happened! Simply unreal finish!
     
    Ended up hedging but not for much at all just 250 to win around 240 or so on PHI -4.5
     
    I've seen a lot of things in my time betting sports but THAT WAS SICK!
     
    Thanks for all the interest and comments guys
     
    K2
    Reply
    DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES???
     
    Cliche but the only thing I could think of to start screaming when whatever the hell happened with :32 left happened! Simply unreal finish!
     
    Ended up hedging but not for much at all just 250 to win around 240 or so on PHI -4.5
     
    I've seen a lot of things in my time betting sports but THAT WAS SICK!
     
    Thanks for all the interest and comments guys
     
    K2
     
    kingme
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    Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 9:29 AM ET #20

    THAT is why you do not hedge !
     
    Nice hit on the parlay
    Reply
    THAT is why you do not hedge !
     
    Nice hit on the parlay
     
    HOFFA44
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    Posted: Jul. 28, 2008 - 5:10 PM ET #21

    Congrats on the AMAZING PARLAY HIT!!!!
    Reply
    Congrats on the AMAZING PARLAY HIT!!!!
     
     
    mikenice
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2010 - 6:15 PM ET #22

    Reply
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