The real reason all the casuals are crying NFL is rigged on twitter etc

Is because gambling has become legal in the US. There is now a massive wave of new gambling addicts who are walking around with a portable casino in their pockets - and that casino allows all these squares to also have a good moan on twitter when they lose.

It's not because the public suddenly got wise - it's because more idiots are gambling than ever, and these johnny come latelys haven't paid their dues. Their mommy's told them they were winners and they can't stomach the fact life isn't fair.

I said before the game every square I knew was on the Bengals. And I almost was. Then I realized I was overreacting to the Bills game (and Mahomes injury). Similar to the way I overreacted to the Bengals unimpressive performance vs Baltimore and thought the Bills would wax them.

I've made a lot of dumb bets I'm no genius but I saw that trap and avoided it. One thing I've also learned over the years is often when I thought that a team was ripe for a fade or ripe for a play on, and it didn't work out, that many times I was just a week early and if I stuck with the strategy next week it would come in. Most bettors give up after that loss with the bitter taste in their mouth they can't stomach backing a team that messed up or going against a team that just beat the bricks off a team they playe on.

Don't do that. Don't have 'last week's game' syndrome.

In saying that, I've been saying the last 2 years the game is rigged, but not rigged in the way people think - it's rigged not for one team to win or lose but for the game to be exciting. Nailbiters is what they want and they manufacture it where they can for sure.

That's why I'm stepping away after this year. It's an entertainment league and usually comes down to the last drive. You rarely see teams holding leads even big ones (ahem, Chargers). The Eagles did it last 2 games but look at their games vs Detroit and a few others they stopped scoring 2nd half.

I finally decided it's pointless to cap games only to have it all come down to what flags are called on the last drive, and whether the winning teams prevent defense leads to a pick or a TD. If I come back betting on football I'll be just playing on dogs because the whole 'keep the game close' agenda favors that, and I will only play a few games. Like a sniper lol 

But in the main I just see how dumb it is to bet on this game and then blame the refs when you lose, crying it's rigged. Life is not fair and the NFL wants eyes on screens til the end, that's what matters to them, not your bet.

And guess what else, no matter how many times an idiot man loses on that late game BS or a bad call, they'll still be reloading that account over and over and barely ever withdrawing.

Gambling has been legal where I live for a lot longer, and I'm sad how it's taken over all the US broadcasts now that it's legal. Every dork on these shows is making picks. It really looks like that is all that sports is about nowadays. We're all so desperate to be winners I guess, that we would watch a clown like Scott Van Pelt and think he knows anything. I dunno why I hate that dude so much he just annoys me but they're all like that. At least in soccer the ads are only at halftime and easy to avoid. And I'm really glad that my country (Ireland) banned gambling ads on TV til after 9.30 pm.

I guess I'm a hipster because now that gambling is so mainstream it doesn't appeal to me any more. But more than that I want to say that to any 20-something year old kid just getting involved in sports gambling, if you're spending every weekend at the sports bar staring at screens on the wall, then at your phone, getting drunk, consider doing something else with your spare time. I got hooked on that pattern and it was such a waste of time - time you cannot get back. Not to mention money. Back then we had to bet with illegal street books. But at least money you can replace. Even though it's still lost.

If all your buddie are doing this, just try skipping a few weeks and seeing how dumb it actually is. Especially all this crying about the refs. Of course they're going to screw things up. You put your money at risk, don't blame them. It's like doing a crime, being put in jail and then complaining about how the guards and inmates are really mean. You really never seen this coming, huh?

One more thing young men need to be aware of if you keep gambling is that you should try to keep it a cash transaction. Where I live, if you have even small, infrequent gambling transactions on your bank statements you will NEVER get a mortgage. I'm certain things like this will come into effect in the US where your credit rating is so important (unlike here where no one really bothers with it)

I've heard you even have to pay taxes on your winnings there now? That is so typically American and so fked up. That alone would make me quit. Most gamblers are already down bad, then they get taxed on the bets they won? I can't see how gambling makes sense under those conditions.

Anyway, I'm done ranting I just wonder if anyone else sees how silly everyone looks crying about their losses because of injuries, the refs etc. as if that isn't football in a nutshell. Also I should admit I have done the same many many times, and now I feel silly myself for not seeing the light earlier.

Like I said I think it's because we have all these new gamblers who haven't been effed in the A by bad beats for years on end. I mean it makes me laugh, I feel like a Vietnam vet who was a tortured POW listening to someone cry because they didn't get into their first university choice or something.

If you didn't like what happened to your bets this weekend kids, delete your bookmaking apps and find a new hobby. Because THAT is what gambling IS. Ive lost games and bets in every way possible. Ive had horses 10 lengths clear run out the side railing. Ive lost 5 figure poker hands to 3 outers on the river. If you can't stop yourself there are apps like gamban that will block all gambling sites on your phone for you. There's a 30 day free trial and I'm going to install it the day after the super bowl to ensure I don't go back to betting horses or NBA.

But if you can take those bad beats and it doesn't bother you then go ahead and keep on truckin. I don't think betting should be illegal or that a man should be denied fun that he can handle. But I'm seeing a lot of people who can't handle it and all I gotta say is - either quit or get used to it! 22 years it took me but hey better late than never.

The real reason you are an idiot part genetic and part unbringing. Nature and nurture, if you will.

The real reason you are an idiot part genetic and part unbringing. Nature and nurture, if you will.

I'd say you're right there Jimmy. Though I believe it is more genetic. My grandfather who I never met growing up and all his sons were degenerate gamblers. I never knew it, my mother told me many years later. Neither my parents gambled at all so it wasn't my upbringing, and I grew up in the US where it wasn't legal at the time.

Now, I know you were trying to troll me but I'm in a headspace where the likes of you would annoy me less than a fly buzzin around the room. I actually pity you. You're the kind of person that is a bookie's wet dream. How many threads did you make and continue to make about the 9ers? Let me tell you in all honesty it isn't just the result of Sunday's game that showed you to be the one who is a true idiot. You write like a 12 year old boy who forgot to take his Ritalin.

I grew up near 69th Street in Philadelphia so I'm feeling pretty good now dude. Why you are still posting here after you played yourself so bad is beyond me. Better luck next year Jimmy, you had a nice little run until we squashed every QB you had while the real JimmyG who you gave ubermillions to laughed on the sideline. Sucks to be you bro!

"Now, I know you were trying to troll me but I'm in a headspace where the likes of you would annoy me less than a fly buzzin around the room. I actually pity you. You're the kind of person that is a bookie's wet dream. How many threads did you make and continue to make about the 9ers? Let me tell you in all honesty it isn't just the result of Sunday's game that showed you to be the one who is a true idiot. You write like a 12 year old boy who forgot to take his Ritalin.

I grew up near 69th Street in Philadelphia so I'm feeling pretty good now dude. Why you are still posting here after you played yourself so bad is beyond me. Better luck next year Jimmy, you had a nice little run until we squashed every QB you had while the real JimmyG who you gave ubermillions to laughed on the sideline. Sucks to be you bro!"

  This was just to easy!

A gambler should never have a home team. 

I was on Cinn, and trust me..im no square. That game could have gone either way. Its just that the squares will just play Cinn +1 / -1 / -1.5 with no back up plan / Insurance policy whatsoever. I crushed the books with 2 teaser Insurance policies. I had that game off a generated computer model and it kept on spitting up Cinn by a field goal and KC by a field goal..tight shit man. Cinn had there chances and opportunities  to win it. Calls are calls are calls..play better and you win and Joeseph Ossai didnt do them any favors to do so and basicaly gave them the win.. Thats the gist of it.. KC's defense/ pass rush secondary was better than Buffalos yes, but Im not going to use any stats from any Cinn home games to cap this one. Overall, KC had the better team that day.  Great game. If Cinn wants to the AF Championship game..get the #1 seed and HF advantage. I have a relative who would be crying fix, the refs are in on it etc if he lost this game..does it all the time ..a true musher and wins 1 game like KC then loses 2 or 3 after that and then claims hes up 4k for the year , doesnt even keep a record....been betting against him for years so I see what you mean about these novice bettors.

@NutinButtLove

Sorry to see you stepping away after this season...

A couple of points on your post, from my perspective....

The massive influx of "casual" sports bettors (squares) because of legalization that you point out create market inefficiencies that you can take advantage of.  I see this as a great thing - with tons of potential.

As you mention - the parity around 1 score games in the NFL make it seem like a coin flip a lot of the time.  What if you could identify games ahead of time that are more likely to fall outside of a 1 score result - and you are able to do that with a good degree of accuracy?  A method in my process that I have put a heavier and heavier emphasis on in the last several years is identifying these games.  I use a term "standard deviation" - but basically it is a game that has a wide variety of results that are farther away from the spread than normally expected.  This has become my go to metric when identifying games to wager on.

Anyway - sorry to see you go, but understand the points you make.

 great point about gambling transactions into bank accounts. This will absolutely affect people trying to get credit/loans/mortgage in the future. 

To bad Uncle Benelli wasn't here to take notes.

I feel like this would be a good thread to post a link about refs.

 People have to understand who they are, and that they are part time. Yes the NFL to this very day doesn't have  full time crews, where that is their sole job. And that is insane to me, why wouldn't the nfl want to sure up that area of their league? They definitely have the money. Give em job security, a health plan, profit sharing, whatever...find people that want to do THIS full time and train/study in the off-season about rules and procedures. 

https://www.footballzebras.com/2022/06/officiating-crews-for-the-2022-season/

Now scroll down. Look at all these guy's real jobs or "occupations".

You have lawyers, teachers, ceo's, a fuckin rancher, a federal agent for Christ's sake, athletic directors, a retired air traffic controller, business men etc...

Dudes from all walks of life being nfl officials on the side. Do you think this variety of brethren is capable of "rigging games"? I think not. When you see times of confusion, missed calls, bad calls, ineptitude, and what not, just know that maybe this isn't these people's primary job or main interest. 

Just my opinion. 

@NutinButtLove

 I wish you the best in your endeavors moving forward. You need thick skin to play this game. 

I do it as a hobby, no losses will make me broke, and no wins will make me rich.

I enjoy the handicapping. I've had good times and bad, and sometimes a break is good for the spirit. This stuff can get overwhelming sometimes. But damn it sure feels good to be right.

@NutinButtLove

 100%. Capping these games is a fools errand. Even the best analyses cannot account for penalties (the good calls, the bad calls and the no-calls), turnovers, in-game injuries, eg: to the niners QB, or jaw-dropping mistakes as happened in the Cinci-KC game. These factors played a role in almost every playoff game's outcome this year.

   I've been doing this as a hobby for 60 years now. I go up, I go down. Streaks are real things. Enjoy, but anyone planning on making a living doing sports gambling better have another option. And now with legalization, touts are coming out of the woodwork. Just have fun and be careful.

@pa2918

 That won't affect getting a mortgage. They only care about credit score and gross income. I had no problem getting one and I've been using fan duel and draftkings since they started, along with other ones. I have hundreds of transactions with them through PayPal on my statements..

Just when you finally figured it out you are taking a break… come on look outside of the box and stick to an edge or find a new one , like the one you just mentioned.Right, that is what you are saying, you cannot beat the books with your heart , you have to beat them with your mind. The people here who are pros will not let you know there edge, so don’t cry fixed and not be on the right side of the fix or else don’t even risk it and let the sport book have all your money and not get it back and then some.

@undermysac

 Completely agreed!

Yep these noobie bettors are terrible nowadays. I would rarely hear about degenerates harassing or sending death threats to athletes or their families 10 years ago but seems a bit more commonplace now. That is sad and pathetic.. 

Glad you felt the need to post this.  Right on brand.

I assume you wont read this either.

@NutinButtLove

 Great write up my fellow Cappers. Every year I say the same thing and after 40 plus years of Football gambling, I can't wait to get my 1st bet in. Good luck !!!

@NutinButtLove

" It's not because the public suddenly got wise - it's because more idiots are gambling than ever, and these johnny come latelys haven't paid their dues"

Right on my friend  

@DW7

where do you live nuttinbutlove??