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The 'A' League experiment

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Posted: #1
It's long been a theory of mine that underdogs win games in the 'A' League at a more consistent clip than any other soccer league I've seen. Home ground advantage appears to mean little in this competition and it's no great shock to see more road teams win than home teams on any given weekend. So I've decided to test the theory by tracking the success rate of underdogs.
 
I've rarely layed a red cent on the 'A' League so will keep this purely experimental by laying fictional units. But I thought it might be an interesting experiment to see just how well outsiders do in the 'A' League, or more to the point, just how bunkrupt I think you'd go backing favourites in this league.  
 
The Mariners got the ball rolling last night, and I'll track each game by flat betting a fictional unit on each outsider / match. 
 
So for round one,
 
Central Coast over Melbourne ($5.20) (1)
Perth Glory over Adelaide ($4.15) (1)
North Queensland over Sydney ($3.25) (1)
Wellington over Newcastle ($3.75) (1)       
 
 
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Posted: #2
ur rite jive, i may give ur experiment a go. though i think newcastle will beat wellington.
 
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Posted: #3
sure MB, but I don't expect to underdogs to hit EVERY time, maybe not even half the time, but given the inflated (in my opinion) prices that a lot of underdogs are sent out at in this league, I think more than enough of them will win to make this a +ve experiment
 
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Posted: #4
Perth Glory win/draw double chance
 
$1.83 x 2units
GL guys
 
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Posted: #5
Interesting JT, will follow with interest.
 
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Posted: #6
bottom line fellas, imo the rate at which underdogs "cash" in the 'A' League makes the prices commonly on offer for them quite often 'over the odds'  
 
anyway, we'll see
 
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Posted: #7
Well JT, depending on the price for a Gold Coast win ($2.85 I believe), the net result after Round 1 would be a +3.05 gain.  Looking good thus far.
 
 
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Posted: #8
Yep, forgot to include that game in the original writeup Gun, ironic, because I went to the game !
 
Anyway, yep, here's what we got after the opening act,
 
Central Coast over Melbourne ($5.20) (1)  =   (+4.20)
Perth Glory over Adelaide ($4.15) (1)  =  (-1)
North Queensland over Sydney ($3.25) (1)  =  (-1)
Gold Coast over Brisbane ($2.85) (1) =  (+1.85)
Wellington over Newcastle ($3.75) (1)   =  (-1)
 
 
week one = 2-3 (+3.05 units)  
 
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Posted: #9
the big dog came up strong
 
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Posted: #10
Round Two,
 
Newcastle over Central Coast $3.75 (1)
North Queensland over Gold Coast $6.50 (1)
Brisbane over Melbourne $3.40 (1)
Perth over Wellington $2.80 (1)
Adelaide over Sydney $4.00 (1)
 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Round Two,
 
Newcastle over Central Coast $3.75 (1)
North Queensland over Gold Coast $6.50 (1)
Brisbane over Melbourne $3.40 (1)
Perth over Wellington $2.80 (1)
Adelaide over Sydney $4.00 (1)
 

Newcastle, Perth and Adelaide are all good chances this week me thinks

 

 
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Posted: #12
 
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Posted: #13
Newcastle over Central Coast $3.75 (1) =  
North Queensland over Gold Coast $6.50 (1) =
Brisbane over Melbourne $3.40 (1) =
Perth over Wellington $2.80 (1) =
Adelaide over Sydney $4.00 (1) =
 
 nun -fa !
 
The 'A' League experiment YTD = 2-8 (-2.05)
 
pretty surprising to see no underdog teams get up, wouldn't expect that to happen very often. If this experiment were for real I don't think the Fury would've been a play. Even the most ardent value bettor might have been hard pressed to think they were value for an upset given the yawning chasm in talent between the two teams.
 
But still, 2-8 and only 2 units down, just shows the virtues in value betting  
 
 
 
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Posted: #14
Keep it going JT
 
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Posted: #15
Round three,
 
Adelaide over Gold Coast $2.70 (1)
Sydney FC over Central Coast $2.65 (1)
North QLD over Melbourne $4.25 (1)
Wellington over Brisbane $4.75 (1)
Newcastle over Perth $3.50 (1)   
 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Round three,
 
Adelaide over Gold Coast $2.70 (1)
Sydney FC over Central Coast $2.65 (1)
North QLD over Melbourne $4.25 (1)
Wellington over Brisbane $4.75 (1)
Newcastle over Perth $3.50 (1)   
 

(1-4) -1.5 units

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

(1-4) -1.5 units

wa tch

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Round three,
 
Adelaide over Gold Coast $2.70 (1)
Sydney FC over Central Coast $2.65 (1)
North QLD over Melbourne $4.25 (1)
Wellington over Brisbane $4.75 (1)
Newcastle over Perth $3.50 (1)   
 
 
0-5 (-5)
 
The 'A' League experiment = 2-13 (-7.05 units)
 
Well slap my ass and pour me a milkshake! Another shut-out round for underdogs
 
Maybe the addition of the two new teams has diluted the talent / levels of competitiveness across the league ? Certainly the Fury looks like a complete basket case with no fans and no wins to date.
 
But, for the purpose of this experiment, I'll push on !
 
 
 
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Posted: #19
Round 4,
 
North Queensland over Adelaide $6.25 (1)
Perth over Melbourne $2.80 (1)
Central Coast over Brisbane $3.10 (1)
Newcastle over Gold Coast $4.35 (1)
Wellington over Sydney $5.00 (1)
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

 
But, for the purpose of this experiment, I'll push on !
 

i hope so mate, dogs doing much better this week. and North queensland where very unlucky. they are only a matter of time imo. my draw no bet with them was almost a massive payout @ $5

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Round 4,
 
North Queensland over Adelaide $6.25 (1)
Perth over Melbourne $2.80 (1)
Central Coast over Brisbane $3.10 (1)
Newcastle over Gold Coast $4.35 (1)
Wellington over Sydney $5.00 (1)
 
 
 

wins to Perth & Newcastle for a +2.15 unit return.

Overall: 4-16 (-4.9 units)

 
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Posted: #22
Round 5,
 
Newcastle over Melbourne $4.25 (1)
Adelaide over Wellington $2.90 (1)
Perth over Central Coast $2.80 (1)
Sydney over Clive Palmer $3.10 (1)
North Qld over Brisbane $3.50 (1)
 
 
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Posted: #23
i think all the dogs have a very good chance of winning this weekend. might break even for the season after the weekend.
 
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Posted: #24
3 or 4 winners there mate
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:

Round 5,
 
Newcastle over Melbourne $4.25 (1)
Adelaide over Wellington $2.90 (1)
Perth over Central Coast $2.80 (1)
Sydney over Clive Palmer $3.10 (1)
North Qld over Brisbane $3.50 (1)
 

0-5 (-5 units)

YTD: 4-21 (-9.9 units)

Maybe this experiment was a season too late ?!  

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