Posted:
#1
2012 YTD: +0.19units (11-8 57.89%)
Had an absolutely horrendous week last week losing all 3 punts i posted and going -5units. Playing the games too early was my major problem and not reading into the games enough. No Sandilands, No play in my opinion. The fact i put 2.5 on that particular game was a bit silly. And if they kicked straight i would have been laughing. Almost got lucky in the end there but it wasnt to be. Hopefully back on the horse this w/e with a few winners. Tbh though it appears to be a really tough week to cap or find any value. I like Port to win at @home but i just cant tell with this Tiger outfit? Are they for real or do they just lift against the bigger opponents?
EARLY LEANS:
Dogs +42.5
Bombers -30.5
Cats -58.5
Swans 1-39 @$2.10
Port @$2.08
Roos +29.5
PLAYING:
ROOS +29.5 1unit@ $1.92
--- Played this game the minute i heard about the news of Kennedy. If you haven't yet, he has been ruled out with an ankle injury which will keep him sidelined for 3months. Kennedy is one of the harder players to replace in the Eagles lineup so not having him available is a major blow. He has been instrumental this season in helping the Eagles maintain a perfect start to the season. Even when he's not kicking goals he is at least taking away the no.1 backman if not requiring 2 players to shut him down. Now do the Eagles have as their no1 target? Darling? No doubting he is a gun and a future star, but i personally believe he isn't ready to be the main target up forward. He excels due to Kennedy being in the lineup and with no Kennedy Jack is going to receive a lot of attention. Last week when Kennedy left the game they struggled against the Tigers allowing them to get back into the contest and barely scraping together a victory by only winning by 10points. Another reason i like the look of a large spread here is due to the weather this week for Perth. Starting Thursday they are forecasting showers which will continue into friday. Then Saturday is 'showers developing' with Sunday and Monday having apparent rain. The way i see this is even if it doesn't rain during the game it would have been raining leading up to it making it a slippery contest. Roos will be hungry for this match as their form has been rather average the last couple of weeks and i feel they will do everything they can to make this a hard contest. I see the Eagles winning this game by about 3 goals.
CATS -58.5 1unit@ $1.92
--- Like the Cats to cover this week against a battling Melbourne. Although Melbourne have managed to lose by respectable margins in the last couple of games, i put that more to who they were playing rather than how they are playing. I dont overly rate the Saints or the Dogs this season (which i have stated in weeks past) and i see when the Dees come up against the Cats they are in for a hammering. Cats disposed of Lions last week in Browns 300th with absolute ease and Melbourne are definitely in for the same treatment. When i capped this game on Sunday night i had Cats winning by 60+ and i wouldn't actually be surprised if they got up by about 100. Geelong will take full advantage of this match up knowing they need to bolster their percentage as they try to get back into the top4. The 4 teams at the top have a minimum percentage of 123 (171%, 149%, 147% & 123%) and Cats will take any game that allows them to close the gap on this difference seriously. Cats by 72
GL
Had an absolutely horrendous week last week losing all 3 punts i posted and going -5units. Playing the games too early was my major problem and not reading into the games enough. No Sandilands, No play in my opinion. The fact i put 2.5 on that particular game was a bit silly. And if they kicked straight i would have been laughing. Almost got lucky in the end there but it wasnt to be. Hopefully back on the horse this w/e with a few winners. Tbh though it appears to be a really tough week to cap or find any value. I like Port to win at @home but i just cant tell with this Tiger outfit? Are they for real or do they just lift against the bigger opponents?
EARLY LEANS:
Dogs +42.5
Bombers -30.5
Cats -58.5
Swans 1-39 @$2.10
Port @$2.08
Roos +29.5
PLAYING:
ROOS +29.5 1unit@ $1.92
--- Played this game the minute i heard about the news of Kennedy. If you haven't yet, he has been ruled out with an ankle injury which will keep him sidelined for 3months. Kennedy is one of the harder players to replace in the Eagles lineup so not having him available is a major blow. He has been instrumental this season in helping the Eagles maintain a perfect start to the season. Even when he's not kicking goals he is at least taking away the no.1 backman if not requiring 2 players to shut him down. Now do the Eagles have as their no1 target? Darling? No doubting he is a gun and a future star, but i personally believe he isn't ready to be the main target up forward. He excels due to Kennedy being in the lineup and with no Kennedy Jack is going to receive a lot of attention. Last week when Kennedy left the game they struggled against the Tigers allowing them to get back into the contest and barely scraping together a victory by only winning by 10points. Another reason i like the look of a large spread here is due to the weather this week for Perth. Starting Thursday they are forecasting showers which will continue into friday. Then Saturday is 'showers developing' with Sunday and Monday having apparent rain. The way i see this is even if it doesn't rain during the game it would have been raining leading up to it making it a slippery contest. Roos will be hungry for this match as their form has been rather average the last couple of weeks and i feel they will do everything they can to make this a hard contest. I see the Eagles winning this game by about 3 goals.
CATS -58.5 1unit@ $1.92
--- Like the Cats to cover this week against a battling Melbourne. Although Melbourne have managed to lose by respectable margins in the last couple of games, i put that more to who they were playing rather than how they are playing. I dont overly rate the Saints or the Dogs this season (which i have stated in weeks past) and i see when the Dees come up against the Cats they are in for a hammering. Cats disposed of Lions last week in Browns 300th with absolute ease and Melbourne are definitely in for the same treatment. When i capped this game on Sunday night i had Cats winning by 60+ and i wouldn't actually be surprised if they got up by about 100. Geelong will take full advantage of this match up knowing they need to bolster their percentage as they try to get back into the top4. The 4 teams at the top have a minimum percentage of 123 (171%, 149%, 147% & 123%) and Cats will take any game that allows them to close the gap on this difference seriously. Cats by 72
GL
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