RooBoy's AFL 2012 Rd3

2012 YTD: +3.62units

Posting early in the week this round as i feel the line im going to take will move more out of my favour as the w/e games draw near.

EARLY LEANS:
Pies h2h
Tigers -24.5
Port +14.5
Freo -42.5
Bombers -55.5
Saints -9.5
Roos +31.5

PLAYING:

PIES h2h 2unit@ $1.95

--- I will be taking the Pies this friday night against the Blues as i feel this is the same old story (as has been for last few yrs) between the two clubs. We once again have the Blues who have had early impressive final score lines this season so far with 40+ win v Tigers (who ? ) and a 90+ win vs the Lions (again... who?). Two things about those games was the fact that the blues didnt put them away until the second half, purely because the opposition they were playing are not that good and ran out of puff. The pies are in a different league to the Lions and the Tigers so the Blues, i feel, wont be ready for them. Pies had it really tough in rd1 against a fired up hawks and lets not forget it was also Buck's first game in charge with a new game plan. They gave Hawks a massive run for their money but only fell away at the end. The tigers they took care of easily IMO (even though i havent had the chance to watch the whole game). Blues have always been a good running team but one thing i noticed plenty last year and i have noticed the same this yr is that they dont put a body on for their team mates and this will be costly against a very good and very physical team in Collingwood. No one other then Judd goes and gets the hard ball in the midfield for the blues but the Pies have Pende's, Ball and Daisy who all go in and get it. Although he is the man Judd just cant do it all against a team of the Pies stature. I personally think the pies have a more solid ruck unit especially when the Blues throw Kruezer forward. And i also feel the big units in Cloke and Dawes will be too much for any defenders the Blues can throw on them. Pies 22+

TIGERS -24.5 1unit@ $1.92

--- I went to the Dees game last weekend and they are HORRIBLE!! They had a couple of glimpses were they played alright but then in the blink of an eye whatever they had just managed to do the WCE had come back and done 10x better. Granted the Eagles are a quality side, especially when playing in Subi, but the Demon's are in complete disarray. Tigers aren't anything special either but look like a far better unit then the Dee's and with Hardwick's very bold statement  following the loss to the pies ('we are closing in on the top 4') the lads are going to need to fire to prevent from taking any backward steps in regards to their development. Add in the fact both teams played on Saturday last w/e and Melbourne have had to deal with travel plus very sore bodies against a physical West Coast, i see Tigers getting this by 40+

GL 

Will probably more games later this week or through the w/e but these are the 2 that stood out the most

GL 

Will probably play** more games later this week or through the w/e but these are the 2 that stood out the most

Like the Tigers alot

like the picks a lot

Melbourne are very poor at the moment, they need to start playing competitive football quickly because right now they falling down the same path as what Port Adelaide did last year and it's not a good time to be a Melbourne side and battling to at least be competitive in games.

Nice revenge factor for Richmond as well..they were beaten by this mob last year and I reckon they may really embarrass the Dees on route to a comprehensive 63 point belting.

(Melbourne's average losing margin is something ridiculous, around 48 points or thereabouts), good team to bet against because once they concede defeat, they completely give up and allow the opposition to hammer them in red time.

roo, how you reckon your boys will go this week against my Cats?

Brad v Chris and just the type of game that North Melbourne burnt their arses off during preseason for, to get a genuine crack at comparing themselves to a top 4 side.

It's make or break for the roos here. After last years efforts against the top 2 (cats & pies) the team has been preaching a need to 'close the gap' between them (roos) and the best in the business and this is the first shot at trying to prove to us they have. But like the last couple of years this game still worries me. I put the roos line in my 'leans' but just like the Bombers game im still not 100% convinced by them? Tbh i cant tell sorry Bobby  . I would love to say 'yeah we will push them', but im not confident we will? Surely the Roos have gotten better right? Hopefully a couple of hard games and the absence of Scarlett hurts the cats a bit.

ha yeah i also bet with sportsbet and didnt realise they were offering that until you mentioned it... cheers! But i actually tipped the pies by 22 in my footy tipping and i almost see this as the minimum margin for them. But i like the fact you have increased your odds it's clever betting. I just recommend you put more on pies   GL mate 

Absolutely LOVE Pies in this spot and at this price, and I also like the 'cushion' of the money back offer from sportsbet!!

Quite like Tigers here too Rooboy, Demons are a hideous team atm and good reasoning given.  A goal a quarter shouldn't be too much for the Tigers.

BOL

Blues 1.75 

obviously the public is riding the Blues?? should have bloody waited for this   Presumed it would have gone the other way??

NBIRD 

I went to the Hawthorn match on Monday and exited the game and saw Brad Scott with his coaching staff in Crocker, Allison etc, they had cheeky smiles on their faces, whether it was because they saw a classic match or it may have been something irrelevant but they certainly got a first hand look at Geelong and like always, Brad is taking this game extremely seriously.

I like the North midfield, I see alot of Geelong in there as they are very underrated and only slowly starting to sneak up on people because they are tough contested players who win the ball and do the job consistently like the Corey's, Kelly's did until they got the recognition.

I still see the backline as a flaw in Norths game and it may hurt you again because Hawkins has seriously turned his game around and his strength and leaping ability is quite spectacular. I can't see a good match up for him at the moment, do you?

I don't think Scarlett is going to hurt us as much as people believe because we have some decent talent in Taylor Hunt and Cam Guthrie who I have watched closely for years in the VFL and they play a very attacking style from the backline and set up momentum going forward like Scarlett has done for years.
The biggest factor with Scarlett is that he's probably the one guy I'd want to have the ball with 30 seconds left in a tight game due to his ability to handle pressure and never panic.

I'm gonna go to this game because I wanna get a good look at North, haven't seen them play live for a couple of years now and they usually play an exciting game so will be eager to see what the line will be for the game.
If I had to guess, I'd say Geelong will be something like -26.5 point favorites.

a heap of money coming in for the Blues

am very surprised...what's the deal?

Collingwood are getting back Maxwell and Wellingham and their midfield is still better than Carlton's yet the money is in for Carlton.

Carlton have played two very average teams in Brisbane and Richmond which has made them look superb.

1. Haha really? Maybe because the game was so ferocious? Or maybe cause they saw Selwood get hammered? (btw my favourite player who doesnt wear a North guernsey)

2. He would have taken it seriously last yr too (due to facing brother) and we got smashed. So i hope the playing group has gotten better since then. We have been getting beaten by huge margins from whatever teams manage to be in the top 2.

3. I really hope your right!! And if you are then i have BULK entertaining footy to watch from my boys.

4. I actually dont mind our defence. It has always (IMO) been our midfield which hasnt managed to use the ball properly which hurts us the most. But like you mentioned we do have a very young core through the middle now and when that develops we should definitely be a force. I see Thompson manning up on Hawkins and i see him doing well too. He is a big body and a solid defender as a whole. I also would imagine Firrito would go back there to help double team him.

5. First time i actually payed any attention to him was last week. And i must say i was very impressed!! He handled himself very well and also used the ball good too.

6. The line opened at -31.5 (cats) and has moved to -30.5 since. I hope this does finish less then 5goals different but like i said earlier i need more convincing that the kangas have taken that next step against quality like the Cats. (I make most my bet on sportsbet.com.au by the way)

BOL bro. I hope you get a good game of footy to watch on sunday

Couldnt agree more!!! And lets not forget that the tigers and lions also made the blues work for a little bit (leading a points and keeping it close) until they both fell away. Dont see pies falling away at all. Almost dont see them down at any point either.

If the line keeps moving like this i might have to put more on the pies at a better h2h price. would just be too tempting 

classic over valued spot here! Pies will roll this friday night

For the life of me I cannot understand the plunge for the Blues, but I'm very happy to seemingly be against the public on this one. 

And Rooboy if this goes out any further I may be in the same boat! Feel like im in a bizarro world.

BOL Bud good record to date

You can thanks Shoenmakers for losing the game for the Hawks otherwise the Cats would not have won. Horrid player down back

The Roos will have one big weakness this year which is also their big strength. 3 talls. Not condusive to wet weather footy and trouble at the bigger ground over the full 4 quarters...... although maybe the 4 quarters thing is mute based on game 1. Game 2 GWS...... well they have no talls apart from Giles.

I also love the Pies and the Tigers. Maybe though the 1-39 on the Pies for me. What is up with that line in the Tigers game

SNAKE bol to you too this w/e mate

Lets not forget the talls have only played 2 games together. Rd1 is very hard to judge because it was big H's first competitive game in a very very long time! i thought (although it was GWS) that they actually looked alright together last week. And also regarding the wet weather the Roos home ground is Etihad so hopefully this doesnt become too much of a factor though the yr. This week a huge test though. Praying for a close game

MY MATE ACTUALLY POINTED THIS ONE OUT FOR ME

ALSO PLAYING:

BOMBERS -14.5 (1stQ Line) 1unit@ $1.92

--- Gonna take the Bombers to come out blazing in the first quarter against the Suns this Saturday night. If my memory serves me correctly this match up last year was the biggest blow out (surely almost ever) in the first quarter. I think it was almost 90-2 a Qtime. I see this happening again to be honest (tbh). I think the bookies this year are persisting to make the Suns lines reasonable, but in all honesty they havent really improved at all from last year. They are getting hammered by teams (who i both think will scrape in the 8) and the Bombers are another one of these teams that could scrape in the 8. But like last year the Bombers will not be taking this match up lightly and will look at it as a way of trying to improve percentage, as that could very well be the factor of what gets them into the 8 come finals. In rd1 Suns were trailing to Adelaide by 31 at Qtime (3.1-7.8) but had had 11 less scoring shots. In rd2 it actually got worse and they couldnt even get a goal against the Saints and trailed by 30 at Qtime (0.2-5.2). So why will this week be any different? On average they are getting done by 30points in the 1stQ and i believe the Bombers will do exactly the same thing if not worse.

GL

SO THE W/E PLAYS ARE SO FAR:

PIES h2h 2units@ $1.95

TIGERS -24.5 1unit@ $1.92

BOMBERS -14.5 (1stQ Line) 1unit@ $1.92



GL  to all!!!

Around even money on the Pies ML, is it really worth 70 cents to cap the margin at 39?

I think it will be a close one and Pies 1-39 will probably cash but with Carlton coming off a trip to Brissy and the Pies dominance of recent years I wouldn't want to risk getting burnt on a 40/41 point win. You know they happen

baz I absolutely love how you use the colours of the team names for your plays, so artsy