RooBoy's AFL 2012 Rd1

2011 YTD: +5.24units

2012 YTD: 0units  (Unit size $100)

Just decided to sit back and view last weeks game without playing it. Didn't think Sydney would win by over 90 due them never blowing teams away. But not yet ready to trust GWS with my money. I must say though the kids looked good and it's scary to think what they and The Suns will be doing in 3-4yrs time. Callum Ward will be a STAR.

Rd1 is always really tough as the NAB cup gives you no real clue in what to expect from teams, as the coaches are clearly always trying new game plans and continuously trying new lineups. But i still see some value in this weeks match-ups.

PLAYING:

multi:
CARLTON-HAWTHORN .5units@$2.59

--- Although i still see Collingwood being a powerhouse this season (See Geelong last season) i personally believe it's the Hawks who will be this years premiers and i think they will firm as favourite's with a successful rd1 campaign. Collingwood still need more time under Buckley's reign before they become what they were last year and with the hawks not losing any key players from last season and not having any major injuries i see them taking this by 1-3 goals. I also see Carlton winning tomorrow night even though they had a terrible pre-season (0wins) and Richmond quite the successful one. I don't see Tigers yet being a top 8 side and the Blues will/should be pushing for a top 4 spot and they need to win this game if they have any chance of doing so. Blues by 25

ROOS h2h .5units@$2

--- This selection might be a little bias. But i truly believe this is the yr the kangas finally get their heads out of their ass' and make the finals. They got off to a terrible start last season (0-5) and it eventually cost them a chance to make the 8 and i think Scott will be ramming that fact home. Plus they have always matched up very well against the bombers. The Bombers on the other hand (i said it last year too) i see as pretenders. Last year they got off to a flyer and were being thrown around as a top 4 candidate but expectingly came back to reality and luckily made the 8 to only be smashed by the Blues and sent packing in the first week. I see this being a very tight contest (as it always is) but think the Roos will get there by 3-12 points.

DOCKERS +7.5 1unit@$1.92

---- Cats are still very good even though they lost 4 huge players after last seasons GF success but i expect Freo to make a serious splash this year with a new coach and hopefully a fit list. I was looking at playing Dockers for the win but im not 100% confident they get up here. I do on the other hand see them keeping it close as it's at home (subiaco) and they have a new coach who has had success over a stronger Cats list before. I also believe the loss of the games best tagger will hurt the Cats early in year and im not sold on Hawkins yet even if he did have the game of his life in last yrs GF (at the end of the day it's still only 1 game. need more proof that he can take over games). And with injury clouds still over key defenders Enright (should play) and Hunt i see the dockers covering this line.

GL to all as always. Lets kick this year off with a few winners!!

CORRECTION:

DOCKERS +7.5 1unit@$2**

sportsbet.com.au offering $2 odds for all line bets in rd1

I like your kangas prediction. Definatley think kangas step it up this season and I don't have the bombers playing final footy.

same old story......media and the public have made a habit of writing of the Cats.
You may not believe me but this current Geelong squad is more solid than they were in 2007.

Ling has been on the edge for the [ast 2 years and his 2011 season wasn't anywhere near as productive as 3 to 5 years ago.
They lost Milburn and Mooney but those guys didn't play any part in season 2011 apart from a few matches here and there so the team have been without them for a season of footy now.
They now have a crop of youngsters in Duncan, Christensen, Taylor Hunt who will improve and from all account's Duncan and Taylor Hunt have been having exceptional pre-seasons along with the rest of the list apart from Varcoe (foot), Wojckinski, Vardy and Josh Hunt.

Joel Selwood is 23 and about to hit his prime and will be as good as any midfielder in the game today.
Improvement will come from Harry Taylor now 25 and going into his 5th season as most defenders finally start peaking in that position by their 6th and 7th seasons.
Hawkins has had his best ever preseason so he is only going improve along with Varcoe when he comes back RD6.

They have 7 players who turn 30 or over in Chapman, Enright, Scarlett, Corey, Josh Hunt, Podsiadly and Wojcinski.
Wojcinski has always been under pressure to keep his spot and I believe Taylor Hunt or Billie Smedts will take his place during the year.
Corey is un-replaceable, Enright is un-replaceable but Enright will go on for another 2 or 3 season along with Podsiadly.

The team is as strong as they have ever been and if these young players coming through are able to hold their own, Geelong are really the team to be beaten in 2012.
Hawthorn actually have the same average-age list as Geelong but like us all, change is always refreshing and it's why Geelong are again flying under the radar.

Geelong win will beat Fremantle by 27 points.

Like every other pick though

hope you don't take offense to my opinion on the Geelong match...am only trying to help us win money and I'll be putting a good amount on the Geelong line -7.5.

haha no you definitely didnt offend me man. actually happy you put your thoughts up to be honest. But i still think dockers pip this one. Maybe due to me living in WA i might have been influenced by the media over here, but i think cats will find it tough in the west. It's a hard ground for any team (other then Freo and WCE) to come to and i believe the dockers will keep it close. I think the dockers will actually have a stellar year. And i see them topping WCE too.

Last season i actually took Cats to win the flag @$12 before rd1 had started due to me also believing the media had hyped the loss of Gazza and Thompson to much. But this year they have NO Ottens (retired) which is HUGE and they are also without Vardy (injured for 1st half of season) so therefore are going into this match up with no seasoned ruckmen. This will hurt the cats IMO. Good luck anyway bro. hope we both make a killing this season. stoked the real rd1 starts in less than an hr!

SNAKES   

EMIRATES 

BOBBYS   


GOOD LUCK LADS!!!

Carlton beating the Tigers is almost as traditional as Carlton and Tigers playing in round 1

Nice start mate. Will be cheering the Hawks for your second leg. Plus I'm a Lions supporter, hope the pies get smashed by 10 goals.

Tigers AFL/NRL double for the spoooon?

ECOUTE  

DJANGO 

hahaha na not this season mate. GWS and Gold Coast to fall lower on the ladder then the tigers. I thought the tigs looked good last night until they ran out of puff. Gave me a serious fright when they got it back there. But as expected carltons class took over and finished them off brutally. Scoreline didnt reflect the game IMO.

Carl-Haw

Roos

Let's make some AFL cash this year!

great play on Blues-Hawks


Hawthorn looked very good.
They still look beatable down back and question marks over their rucks but how good is Franklin

Such a brilliant player now and when you have a forward line like that, good shot at winning it this year.

I'm all over the Roos as well, almost had a blue with my mate last night as he's Essendon and took exception to me stating how confident I am in North beating them even though it's a 50/50 contest as suggested by the media.

Seriously rate North this season after a few years of development. Ziebell's a beauty imo, and then you got Swallow who's probably amongst the top 10 midfielders in the AFL along with Mitchell, Pendlebury, Selwood, Judd, Ablett, Cotchin, Griffin, Del Santo and Murphy.
Wells, Harvey and Bastinac complement that midfield quite nicely.
The ruck duo in McIntosh/Goldstein is the equal to Hille/Ryder but no one from Essendon (including the ageless wonder in Fletcher) is going to be able to contain Petrie.
Edwards should be ready to have his best season at the club, McKinley, Hansen, Campbell will also chip in for a handy 3 goal win to start of their season.

Nice start

Nice work

Well done mate

What a horribly capped game too. The books would have got slaughtered with the total. Both these teams have changed their game styles

NBIRD  

BOBBY'S 

ROD  

KAYMAN 

ECOUTE 

Have to admit though prior to the game i was nervous with Hodge being ruled out, but the hawks with Mitchell, Buddy and a stupidly accurate kicking backline got over the line pretty comfortably in the end!! 

Cheers boys  

I REALLY REALLY hope your right bro!!! But something i have learnt from being a roo supporter is never let them get you too confident. I have done it before (last season) and boy did they let me down big time with that terrible start. But i must say the young midfield does get me excited and Petrie/Harvey are just huge workhorses who deserve to be playing finals footy. Tonight is stilla major danger game but if the boys can get the win tonight then we should go 2-0 with GWS on the cards next week!! 

Yo Rooboy any feel for Demons 1/4 time -4.5? I'm thinking they come out fired up given recent events.

Couldn't agree more!! Cheers for the heads up

ALSO PLAYING:

DEMONS -4.5 (1st Quarter Line) .5units @$1.85

Disgusting display by the Dees

Yeah they were shocking! Lucky they started hard though. But disgusting performance to say the least.

GO ROOS!! 

GL