Posted:
#1
Not a large AFL capper, tend to stick with the codes where they wear something other than wife beaters and scramble for a ball on the ground for 50% of the match. Anyhow, always look at the prices and try to ascertain value where possible.
The Saints are undefeated, and is it possible that the books are now starting to overrate them after their 'mid-season GF'? Don't think for a minute that I expect the Crows to beat them at Etihad, but in a match that could turn out to be a grind, the Crows paying $1.48 with a +39.5 start seems generous to me.
As stated elsewhere, these two teams defences account for 7 of the top 8 lowest scores so far this season which is an indication of how strong each of their defensive lines seem to be travelling. Good defence on the part of each team is something which would help the +39.5 start.
Also, having watched the Saints for the past 2 rounds, there is something that tells me a trip west wasn't exactly what they would have wanted after the big match and the legs could still be a little weary - particularly after the effort they had to exert in the final quarter to get over the Weagles.
Anyway, as I said, don't know a great deal about this sport - have only started watching this year. But Adelaide with a +39.5 start did stick out to me, in a game between 2 great defensive units, it seems to be good money. Would love to hear from the regulars in this forum, as I don't want to miss another chance like I did not getting on the Lions with the points last time up.
No way, no how the Saints lose at Telstra. I mean Etihad. I mean Docklands. 
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