Posted:
#1
YTD: 92-66 +25.2u
Wollongong +10.5 1u
Based on form since Wollongong got rid of Reyes I think this line is way generous. They have won their last 3 home games by double digits, two of them were 20 plus. They also kept within 9 of sydney in sydney.
Sydney's form has not been anything special of late. I would play this for more but I have a feeling Sydney are due to play better and Wollongong are due for an ordinairy one and it could be tonight. Still thinking about adding another unit.
Perth +5 1u
With Darnell Mee reported to be back and Cairns giving it to Brisbane last game, my feeling was this line was about right.
However, my forecasts have this one as close and one of them based on form over the last five games suggests Perth should be favoured by a couple of points. Looking at their recent results more closely I can see where this is coming from. Although their recent schedule has been a little easy they have won four out of their last five only losing to Melbourne by a point. They have won 7 of their last 10 with the other two losses being Townsville by 4 away and Melbourne by 7 away.
Cairns have been inconsitent so while it wouldn't suprise me if they won easily, I think Perth will be right in this and five is too many.
Perth to win it $17 1u
Redhage got approved for citizenship and Perth are planning to add another import. I rate Perth's defence just a smidge behind Sydneys, which I see as the best. However, their offence only ranks 7 of 13, middle of the pack. Supposedely the guy they are trialling ranked third all time at the college Lampley ranked number one all time and Carfino rattled off a few quality NBA players who had been to that school the other night.
Apart from Redhage, to generalise, I would rate most of the other perth starters as decent offensively but not bid time scorers. I reckon another scorer could make a big difference and improve them alot, and quite possibly put them around the level of the other top three teams.
The problem is it will be difficult for them to get a top 4 spot as I see it, even though they are currently fourth, as their run home is pretty tough. However with Hawkins being out for the season, New Zealand also having a tough run and Townsville looking a little scruffy of late, Cairns may be the favourite for fourth. After tonight Cairns have 6 their last 9 away and while they may be favourites against Singapore and Souths, I am not sure they would be favoured against any of Brisbane, Townsville, Adelaide or Wollongong.
Even if Perth don't get fourth their away form hasn't been to bad of late and if they improve with a new player they will be a reasonable chance to get into the semis, where I would be looking to hedge this at a profit.
Not a great bet, but the bigger books have it at $10 and $11 which I suggest is closer to the mark, so some value. Plus i like heading into the playoffs wihh a live long shot and i don't feel my townsville bet counts at this point.
Well done on both mate, comebacks from the Hawks and Cats makes it a clean sweep
............. lets just hope they are accurate too.
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