HoH's AFL Round 11

$10,000 @ $1.47 ON GEEL/BRIS/PORT/COLL MULTI
$7,000 @ $2.95 ON RICHMOND V ADELAIDE
$6,000 @ $1.22 ON SYDNEY V WEST COAST
$5,000 @ $1.38 ON ADELAIDE V RICHMOND
$4,000 @ $2.95 ON RICHMOND V ADELAIDE
$2,500 @ $2.80 ON RICHMOND V ADELAIDE

The fishes are out and they are stinking up the harbor.  Definitely something strange going on with Adelaide/Richmond, as mentioned by Miracle1976, but this just proves it.

Will post my picks in here later in the week.

Let's get this done this round boys!  As I mentioned at the end of last round, I have a very good feeling that this weekend will be very kind to us!

Ross Lyons is a Scottish cricket player ecoute.  Hahaha...

Lyon must have his boys fired up....The locker room pep talk:  I just put $30k of Riewoldt's salary on this game boys!  Youse all soft!!!!  Now get out there and (literally) earn your pay!

Hahaha...

West Coast assistant coach Peter Sumich has questioned the fitness of Sydney's comeback kid Nick Malceski, saying the Eagles' coaching staff believe he struggled at training on Thursday and could be in doubt for Saturday's AFL clash in Perth.

Malceski underwent innovative surgery on his knee using a synthetic fibre after rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament on February 17.

Conventional surgery would have ruled the 23-year-old out for a year but the defender made a remarkable return to senior football just three months later.

He has played in Sydney's last three games, which included a 16-possession, one-goal performance against the Tigers last week.

But Sumich said he was unsure whether Malceski would take part in Saturday night's clash with the Eagles at Subiaco Oval.

"We watched training yesterday and I think Malceski didn't complete training and seemed to hobble a little bit with his knee, so it will be interesting selection tomorrow night whether he's playing or not," Sumich said.

"You might find (Craig) Bird in, or Bird might still come in for one of the talls, even (Henry) Playfair or (Lewis)Roberts-Thomson."

But a Sydney spokesman scoffed at Sumich's suggestions, saying Malceski had not re-injured his knee and was a certain starter against the Eagles.

Strong leans starting to form:

Geelong minus whatever.  Can't get a line though at my book.

Sydney -22.5

Bulldogs -13.5

Carlton +34.5

Nothing pinned down yet for sure...

Forgot to add:

Richmond +10.5

Yeah, Sumich obviously hasn't watched the last two Swans' matches and see Malceski's play.

No Geelong play for me as the book didn't open its line.

42-20, end of 1st for the Cats.  Looking good for their backers.

You are lucky you did not play it mate. Damn cats won it for their fans lost it for the punters wallets

Watched the game at work. 

Couldn't believe what I was seeing and heard the books' laughing all the way from Australia...wow.

Play of the Round

Well, I looked up and down and down and up and this match is my top play of Round 11.

Port Adelaide -34.5 v. Carlton @ AAMI Stadium

I have scoured the stat sheets, news headlines, and anything else I could dig up and it left me feeling fairly confident in this selection.

Statistically, without going into massive detail, I was very surprised to see that the Blues stack up with the Power very well in all the right areas, and even surpass them in a few.  I also stacked up the statistics in the areas where Carlton can be hurt the most, and it very well seems that Port isn't strong enough, on paper at least, to take full advantage.  Much like they were not able to against the Swans' weaknesses as well.  A poor match-up.

The main concern for the Blues, besides travel, will be their defense.  Ratten has defended the "tempo football" displayed effectively against the Cats last round, in which they held Geelong goal-less for six straight minutes and then pipped a goal at the Halftime siren.  The Blues only relinquished after the match got out of hand when they resumed business as usual.  I don't think many teams would have much luck keeping Geelong off the score tabs for such an extended time if they hadn't figured something out.  Ratten has mentioned that he does not find the tempo football to be boring at all, rather very exciting as it gives his side a massive advantage in controlling the flow of the match and disrupting the other side.  He stated that it is a card in his hat to be pulled out at any time he deems fit.    We will likely be seeing some of this as well against Port.

Carlton's assistants have also leaked some of their gameplan for the Power at AAMI.  They will try to cut down their backs and deep midfielders early, to prevent the Power from free running.  When Port get moving, their flow is devastating and can rain goals in quick succession.  Carlton will have none of that and will try to mug and stifle Port in their own backhalf and force errors and turnovers, thereby creating a short field for their forwards to work.  Expect a hard-fought match full of contested possessions and massive tackles.  (again, the Blues stack up well in stat areas related to this type of battle plan.)  Add in the fact that Ratten may call for tempo to be pulled out as well, and you are looking at a slogfest of the unpretty kind.

Ratten also mentioned that Sydney and Geelong play stifling football every round and get kudos for it so people need to get off the Blues back for their newfound tempo style.

In the end, it is no secret that the Blues can put them up on the board.  Add in the fact that statistically they match up very well against Port, will try to force the initiative in the Power's own backhalf, and will bring out their tempo footy, a style which is so old yet so new that teams have not conjured up practical ways of dealing with it yet.......................and it all adds up to:

Pick:  Carlton Blues +34.5

P.S. - There is a chance of wet weather to hit Adelaide for gametime as well.  I can only see this as aiding the Blues in this situation.

Aussieguy, I was strongly leaning on Richmond +10.5 today.  I see you like them as well.  Can you give some of your reasoning behind your selection here as I still find myself on the fence, though I feel this is the right play.  Thanks! 

Awesome.

To heck with it.

It was a strong lean of mine, you're on it, a few other blokes on it seem to like it as well, plus the big money is on it as well.  Lines have dropped to -8.5 at many places.

I will be playing Richmond +10.5.  Let's get that money baby! 

Half-unit down the whizzer.  Looked good at Halftime....  Dang!

I knew something just wasn't right about that match.  Oh well.

Small half-unit play on Sydney -22.5.  I see value in this line with all of the Weagles changes.  Even though it is at Subiaco and the Weagles will come out hot to start the match.  I cannot see anything other than a typical Swans choke-the-opposition fest in massive swatches of the game, especially with the youngsters out their for West who won't have a clue what is going to hit them.  Roos has called this game a watershed moment in the season and I do not see the Swans failing to heed his direction.  Sydney has constantly beaten the teams they should beat all season long, unlike many of the teams in the comp, and should not disappoint in this affair either.  Best of fortune to the Sydney Swans.

Pick:  Sydney Swans -22.5

18-0 quick-start for the Weagles.

There is the hot start for West.

18-1.....all Eagles right now.

These Weagles radio announcers are outrageous.  Entertaining, but out for Sydney blood.  Goodes had a high hit and they want him on a stake.  A bit of biffo as well...

"West Eagles starting to get tired.  They've come out too hot early and now they have to play this tough type of football" - Announcers.

Bingo.