OK, let's start on the final three games of this round:
Richmond v. Sydney -24.5 @ SCG
This will be the first and only match for the Tigers this season at the SCG. They have a whopping 0-2 record here at the SCG with the average margin of defeat being 57 points. Sydney is 21-8 at the SCG (73% win percentage) with the average margin of victory being 25.
The last two years that these two teams have faced off at the SCG ('06 and '07), the Swans have won both by 48 and 66 respectively. It is clear that Richmond will not be done any favors playing at this venue.
Recent form has shown the Swans to be up to the task, downing Port in Port, smashing the Bombers, and losing narrowly to the Bulldogs. Richmond hasn't been too shabby either bouncing the Bombers, losing by 30 to Geelong and losing by 3 to the Saints.
I think the Swans will win this match but will they covers the spread? I think that will be determined by the effort stats this round and not the usual suspects. Let's take a look at them:
It looks like the For stats are all Sydney, whilst the Allowed stats favor the Tigers. One thing to note though, is that Sydney is #1 in the AFL for not allowing their opponents to get off Kicks, Marks, Disposals, and Handballs. This is massive against a side like Richmond who is clearly being out-played in the effort department and will find ball possession in an unfamiliar ground hard to come by as it is, let alone against the #1 team in the comp in those statistics.
Finally, four of Sydney's five wins have all covered the spread for this game. The Swans have also been putting away teams whom they should beat and cannot be considered as a "letdown" team this season. Richmond has been doing well as an upstart in the League and I had recommended them way back in the early rounds as a sneaky punt for the foreseeable future. That has paid off as the Tigers have been covering machines for those smart enough to get on them.
I originally expected the Swans to win this thing, but anything over 20 in the spread I would find myself backing the Tigers. I like doing research in the areas I figure will play a huge part in a particular game and then letting that speak for itself. Amazingly, after doing so for this match, I find myself on the Swans now.
This has nothing to do with my love for the team, but is clearly a play based on the numbers and percentages.
Swans will come out a little slow tonight due to the battle last round versus the Power, but should overpower in traditional Sydney fashion as the game wears on. Swans come out tonight and win by 35 (versus early round, no research lean of 18 points).
Pick: Sydney Swans -24.5
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OK, let's start on the final three games of this round:
Richmond v. Sydney -24.5 @ SCG
This will be the first and only match for the Tigers this season at the SCG. They have a whopping 0-2 record here at the SCG with the average margin of defeat being 57 points. Sydney is 21-8 at the SCG (73% win percentage) with the average margin of victory being 25.
The last two years that these two teams have faced off at the SCG ('06 and '07), the Swans have won both by 48 and 66 respectively. It is clear that Richmond will not be done any favors playing at this venue.
Recent form has shown the Swans to be up to the task, downing Port in Port, smashing the Bombers, and losing narrowly to the Bulldogs. Richmond hasn't been too shabby either bouncing the Bombers, losing by 30 to Geelong and losing by 3 to the Saints.
I think the Swans will win this match but will they covers the spread? I think that will be determined by the effort stats this round and not the usual suspects. Let's take a look at them:
It looks like the For stats are all Sydney, whilst the Allowed stats favor the Tigers. One thing to note though, is that Sydney is #1 in the AFL for not allowing their opponents to get off Kicks, Marks, Disposals, and Handballs. This is massive against a side like Richmond who is clearly being out-played in the effort department and will find ball possession in an unfamiliar ground hard to come by as it is, let alone against the #1 team in the comp in those statistics.
Finally, four of Sydney's five wins have all covered the spread for this game. The Swans have also been putting away teams whom they should beat and cannot be considered as a "letdown" team this season. Richmond has been doing well as an upstart in the League and I had recommended them way back in the early rounds as a sneaky punt for the foreseeable future. That has paid off as the Tigers have been covering machines for those smart enough to get on them.
I originally expected the Swans to win this thing, but anything over 20 in the spread I would find myself backing the Tigers. I like doing research in the areas I figure will play a huge part in a particular game and then letting that speak for itself. Amazingly, after doing so for this match, I find myself on the Swans now.
This has nothing to do with my love for the team, but is clearly a play based on the numbers and percentages.
Swans will come out a little slow tonight due to the battle last round versus the Power, but should overpower in traditional Sydney fashion as the game wears on. Swans come out tonight and win by 35 (versus early round, no research lean of 18 points).
Other notes, Kennelly should be back in for the Swans, a huge boost no doubt.
A Swans win would be their 1000th franchise victory. Definitely on the mind of the players.
The Swans have stressed all week about the important of not letting up as the League's top leaders are now showing signs of wear and defeat. Players are being reminded that the team is nipping on their heels and to win is to make up ground.
Richmond has been focusing on the stoppage play, a facet of the game which Sydney dominates. Richmond does not want to get caught up in that and will try to play a fast-paced, free-flowing form of footy against the Swans. This is huge methinks as a team can get so focused on one aspect of a match that they lose count of the others. Also, Richmond, as stated above, is horrid in the effort stats and will find it very hard to play the type of fast-paced, free-flowing football effectively with those season numbers working clearly against them. Could definitely backfire.
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Other notes, Kennelly should be back in for the Swans, a huge boost no doubt.
A Swans win would be their 1000th franchise victory. Definitely on the mind of the players.
The Swans have stressed all week about the important of not letting up as the League's top leaders are now showing signs of wear and defeat. Players are being reminded that the team is nipping on their heels and to win is to make up ground.
Richmond has been focusing on the stoppage play, a facet of the game which Sydney dominates. Richmond does not want to get caught up in that and will try to play a fast-paced, free-flowing form of footy against the Swans. This is huge methinks as a team can get so focused on one aspect of a match that they lose count of the others. Also, Richmond, as stated above, is horrid in the effort stats and will find it very hard to play the type of fast-paced, free-flowing football effectively with those season numbers working clearly against them. Could definitely backfire.
Strange line movements on the Saints/Demons match-up. Line is jumping around at various books and TAB has the Saints at a face-saving 1.70. As I can remember, anytime TAB short-prices a team like that, they end up being the winning punt.
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Strange line movements on the Saints/Demons match-up. Line is jumping around at various books and TAB has the Saints at a face-saving 1.70. As I can remember, anytime TAB short-prices a team like that, they end up being the winning punt.
Don't really have a solid pick on the late game. Would, gun to the head, tip Port Adelaide because I feel they are the better team and until Freo corrects their stamina problem, they are going to be on the wrong end of some tough matches.
Good luck to those punting this one.
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Don't really have a solid pick on the late game. Would, gun to the head, tip Port Adelaide because I feel they are the better team and until Freo corrects their stamina problem, they are going to be on the wrong end of some tough matches.
If anyone has any insight into the Saints/Demons game, please post. Wanted to take the Dees with the points, as I do not trust the Saints, but money and line movements the past 24 hours have me about to change my mind.
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If anyone has any insight into the Saints/Demons game, please post. Wanted to take the Dees with the points, as I do not trust the Saints, but money and line movements the past 24 hours have me about to change my mind.
Yeah same here, I think the Swans should easily cover 24 pts in Sydney HOH. I would be surprised if Richmond gets within 40 by the end of the game (but I won't be adventurous and just stick with -24) No opinion on the Saints, but I think the Dockers should win ....... (I mean they've got to win sometime...but then again they're becoming like Miami Heartless Fucks Heat and you can trust neither team!) Gun to my head though Docker it is for me. I will see how my Swans wagers goes first before I pull the trigger on Freo!
Cheers mate and Best of luck to us
AUSSIE
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Yeah same here, I think the Swans should easily cover 24 pts in Sydney HOH. I would be surprised if Richmond gets within 40 by the end of the game (but I won't be adventurous and just stick with -24) No opinion on the Saints, but I think the Dockers should win ....... (I mean they've got to win sometime...but then again they're becoming like Miami Heartless Fucks Heat and you can trust neither team!) Gun to my head though Docker it is for me. I will see how my Swans wagers goes first before I pull the trigger on Freo!
By the way, Freo is at Pick Em now, and they opened as very slight dogs. The punters seem to be showing the Dockers some love too. Whatever this means..
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By the way, Freo is at Pick Em now, and they opened as very slight dogs. The punters seem to be showing the Dockers some love too. Whatever this means..
Yeah same here, I think the Swans should easily cover 24 pts in Sydney HOH. I would be surprised if Richmond gets within 40 by the end of the game (but I won't be adventurous and just stick with -24) No opinion on the Saints, but I think the Dockers should win ....... (I mean they've got to win sometime...but then again they're becoming like Miami Heartless Fucks Heat and you can trust neither team!) Gun to my head though Docker it is for me. I will see how my Swans wagers goes first before I pull the trigger on Freo!
Cheers mate and Best of luck to us
AUSSIE
Thank you Aussieguy and hopefully we can also get a winner on the red stuff tomorrow with Schynder. That is a very sneaky pick and I like it. However, it was mentioned that her ankle was hurting and she does have a history of bad ankles.....know anything about this?
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Quote Originally Posted by Aussieguy:
Yeah same here, I think the Swans should easily cover 24 pts in Sydney HOH. I would be surprised if Richmond gets within 40 by the end of the game (but I won't be adventurous and just stick with -24) No opinion on the Saints, but I think the Dockers should win ....... (I mean they've got to win sometime...but then again they're becoming like Miami Heartless Fucks Heat and you can trust neither team!) Gun to my head though Docker it is for me. I will see how my Swans wagers goes first before I pull the trigger on Freo!
Cheers mate and Best of luck to us
AUSSIE
Thank you Aussieguy and hopefully we can also get a winner on the red stuff tomorrow with Schynder. That is a very sneaky pick and I like it. However, it was mentioned that her ankle was hurting and she does have a history of bad ankles.....know anything about this?
If you are tempted with the head-start and Richmond, surely you'd like an extra 3 or 4 points. This ploy gets tons of backers on that side, Richmond in this case (See big bet above, for example), and limits the book's potential payout because of the huge vig.
One other thing it does though is tip off which side the book thinks covers. TAB is clearly on Sydney this round to cover.
Which is another reason why I am intrigued by the Saints today. 1.70 on a reduced line. Clearly they figure they cover the start against the Dees. ???
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TAB at -27.5 at high juice.
Another reason why I liked the Swans here.
If you are tempted with the head-start and Richmond, surely you'd like an extra 3 or 4 points. This ploy gets tons of backers on that side, Richmond in this case (See big bet above, for example), and limits the book's potential payout because of the huge vig.
One other thing it does though is tip off which side the book thinks covers. TAB is clearly on Sydney this round to cover.
Which is another reason why I am intrigued by the Saints today. 1.70 on a reduced line. Clearly they figure they cover the start against the Dees. ???
Congratulations to the Sydney Swans on their 1000th Franchise Victory!!!
Absolutely put a dagger into Richmond today. 73-3 to start the game. I think Richmond had the ball longer for five seconds once or twice in the first 1.5 quarters of play. An absolute whitewashing.
Richo even missed from a mark 3m out.
The effort stats and ball possession were everything and it showed.
I am glad to see what happened. I guess it pays to do your homework and a bit of research instead of downing 23 beers and then wondering who to choose. HAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!! Ahem...
Go on your good thing Swans!!!
Sydney Swans -24.5 =
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Congratulations to the Sydney Swans on their 1000th Franchise Victory!!!
Absolutely put a dagger into Richmond today. 73-3 to start the game. I think Richmond had the ball longer for five seconds once or twice in the first 1.5 quarters of play. An absolute whitewashing.
Richo even missed from a mark 3m out.
The effort stats and ball possession were everything and it showed.
I am glad to see what happened. I guess it pays to do your homework and a bit of research instead of downing 23 beers and then wondering who to choose. HAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!! Ahem...
This is massive against a side like Richmond who is clearly being out-played in the effort department and will find ball possession in an unfamiliar ground hard to come by as it is, let alone against the #1 team in the comp in those statistics.
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