HoH's AFL - Round 3

Okay, fade me if you wish here, but I feel great about this go.

Going to throw my lot in with the Crows.  Only way they lose this, IMO, is if they pull a Port and mail it in.  I don't expect them to do so, coming off that very deceiving blowout loss to the Saints.  Crows were highly competitive in that match and the 30-11 frees count to the Saints really did them in.

Freo is rubbish to start the season and it is hard to see where their match winners will come from.  They are struggling to gain control of the game and shoot through points.  The Crows, on the other hand, are not short of points and play a nice open form of the game which contributes to the former.  Crows do have some injuries, but the replacements are adequate enough not to go into too much detail about them.

In addition, I do like this stat talked about below as well.  I always check this particular stat out as I feel it tells more about the upcoming match than one might think:

Crows rank #1 in the AFL in handballs.  Again, showing the positive movement of the ball the Crows display.  Fremantle rank the worst in the AFL in stopping opponent handballs.  Now, Fremantle did play the Bulldogs and Bombers, two free-running, free-chucking sides to put things into perspective.  However, the Crows are smiliar in nature in this regard and if the Dockers couldn't stop those two sides, especially the Bombers, how will they stop the Crows from shooting the ball around?

Put these two stats together and we should see enough positive ball movement to the Crows to stock up on the points.  I don't think Freo has enough points in reserve to overcome this handballing statistic to come up over the top here.

The Crows also have a decent history versus the Dockers, including at Subiaco.

Going with the Crows here at the ignorant line my book set.  If the Crows don't come away with this one, then throw the stats book out the window, ignore the form guide, and start flipping coins to wager on the AFL this season.  All stats, history, and form points to a Crows win...and that is a fact you can have confidence in.  So there is only one play on this match tonight.  Whether or not though all that matters, as mentioned above, is another question...

Adelaide +4.5 - Medium Play

Match is over by any means, but it is currently 80-29 Port, a third of the way through the 3rd Quarter.

Yeah...........tell me again Port didn't mail it in last round?  Bums...

Hahaha...Freudian slip.  I meant, "the match ISN'T over by any means."

Doh.

Live broadcast of the Crows' victory here:

https://www.justin.tv/scalive

Quiet 1st Quarter from both sides.  Freo did well on their chances.  Adelaide has a bunch of possession around the Freo 50m, but couldn't cash in.  When Adelaide gets running, Freo look hopeless to stop them.  Adelaide drops and errors though keeping Freo smart.

Stevens being stretchered off.  Kneed and fisted in the face on an I50 mark by McPharlin.  Off the pace and absolutely no shot at the ball by McPharlin.  Suspension looming, although hit wasn't intentional.  Reckless.

43-25, Adelaide at the Half.

Freo barely got the ball past the centre square in the 2nd Quarter.  Adelaide still a bit sloppy, otherwise the gulf could have been much higher.  Freo looks to have no idea on attack.  A lot of their kicks going straight to an Adelaide player for a mark.

Hopefully Adelaide can keep this up in the 2nd Half and come out of here with a win.  Goals should be at a premium as the wind is strong at Subi today.

Both teams playing hard and hitting hard as well.

Freo dead and buried with a quarter to go.  Did nothing and didn't look to be ready to do anything.

Then five straight (so far) to the Dockers.

Of course, right at the end, Adelaide will shit the bed.

I've got the stats book and form guide and the matches...

Well, my 8000th post will be to say that the stats book and form guide stay intact for another round.

Good fightback by the Crows after being stunned by five straight, out-of-nowhere, Dockers' goals.

196 to 152, Adelaide wins the handball count. (Fremantle won the marking count 97 to 95, which shows you the amount of ball movement Adelaide has by hand.)

24 to 15, Fremantle wins the free kick count.

Feels good to get back on the winning side in the AFL.

Adelaide +4.5

I would say after Rd 12 when they play both Geel and Hawks away from the Gabba.  When you have a really good look at their draw they have a easy year as 'most' of their Gabba games they should win 80-90%.  The best way to always gauge interstate sides is based on their ability to handle travel in IMO.

Take a look at West Coast who got rightly got smashed by the Saints after playing another side last week with a bad attitude and travelling interstate in Port.  We all have to admit that the Saints, while they could still struggle at the very business end of the season, 'should' finish in the top 4!

So let's look at how they handle those two games mentioned above, but I have to admit that while playing at a very high level of footy here in Adel that there are always many factors that rate how anyone should judge if a side is going to perform each year.  So while Mathews can never been judged as a bad coach as many people often look at a person's record, rather then 'other' factors that can truely judge how successful one is.  In short, one very good coach I know here is Adel always told me that you are only as good as your cattle...and this guy I'm talking about won 8 as a coach. 

I believe that Voss will take this side to the finals, and maybe press for a prelim birth with the main issue for them being their backline and they have enough 'stars' in other positions to win their required 12-14 games to make finals.

And for what it's worth guys, as I'm in this is frame of mind I'll let you in on a little secret...the Cats won't win the flag this year (sorry g-man).  As the year unfolds I will let you know the reasons why on the above statement, but please understand that they will make one of the Premlin's this year.

Well done on the Adel pick HOH

Lets also not forget a lot of these players if not all played with Voss either as seniors or looked up to his as rookies.

Voss is not just a player wanting to be a coach either. He has received lots of praise in the past for his 'footy brain'.......... yeah yeah forget all that special comments shit that he did which wasn't even his own stuff.

Lions will make the 8 no worries.

Nice pick on the Crows. Dockers are done for the year even 3 rounds in. They have some very nice rookies though coming through next year

................ besides who would seriously sign Chris Tarrant, Des Headland or Joker Farmer to a forward line wanting to win the flag. Tigers just have a bad coach, Dockers on the other hand have bad players and selectors.

Very impressive write up HOH and spot on....  You obviously have a good understanding of what it takes to cap the AFL...I am purely a novice with a lot too learn..However writes with the details and confidence of the one ,make me realize I have a long way too go....I am very much a stat driven person as well but when lady luck turns to ice,waiting for her to thaw can be testing...this is what I am encountering in the NRL presently..but I will persist,stick to the stats and all will be well (I hope )  ...
Fading or not I will be following your picks and reading your write ups more often....Cheers

Thank you for the kind words bluephinn. 

Stats are a two-sided sword though, as they can also lead you right over the deep end.