HoH's AFL - Round 16

Fri Jul 18

Kangaroos vs Collingwood	Telstra Dome	19.40
Sat Jul 19	Geelong vs Bulldogs	Skilled Stadium	14.10
Sat Jul 19	Richmond vs Essendon	MCG	14.10
Sat Jul 19	Brisbane vs West Coast	Gabba	19.10
Sat Jul 19	St. Kilda vs Hawthorn	Telstra Dome	19.10
Sun Jul 20	Carlton vs Sydney	Telstra Dome	13.10
Sun Jul 20	Port Adelaide vs Adelaide	AAMI Stadium	15.10
Sun Jul 20	Fremantle vs Melbourne	Subiaco	16.40

Tough round this one as a lot of sides are mulling over their season as a whole and injuries and outs galore.  It's a veritable Omaha Beach full of speculation.

So far my plays are:

Hawks ML @ $1.45
Bulldogs +12.5
Melbourne +16.5

Hawthorn has won their last nine of their last ten at the TD.  The Saints are no slouches their either, being their home venue, and play well there.

I expect a rather low-scoring game although the Saints inclusions might see them try to run a bit.  I do not like the Saints midfield at all in this match-up.  Bateman should play and is a big boost for the Hawks.

If the shit hits the fan, the Hawks have won the 4th Quarter 13 times out of 15 matches this season and should pull away here.  The Saints are 8 for 15 in the 4th.

HAWKS ML

Thank you. 

OK, let's start the unpopular plays of the round.  Hahahaha...

I was on North and Essendon last round, both unpopular and they came in.  Tipped Richmond, but was a no play due to Richo being Out.  So no fear here as I think these are the right sides.

I don't think Bateman is a big boost at all for the Hawks with the withdrawal of Crawford through injury.  One of the reason's why Hawthorn cannot be one of the elite clubs just yet IMO is that they don't really have a lot of depth, a few injuries really cost them dearly.

Good luck.

Do you notice that everyone and their Auskick Coach is on the Cats this round?



Was loving the Dogs last weekend for this match and would be taking whatever points the books would give.  12.5?  Yes sir, sign me up.

The Cats are Flag favorites, no doubt, but I reckon the Bulldogs are the best team in the comp right now.  Watching both play all season, to me, the Dogs are the more impressive team and when they are firing, they are a beautiful side to watch.  If this game wasn't at SS, I would be tipping an outright win for the Dogs here.

But...being at SS in front of 27,000+ screaming Cats fans will do the Dogs no favors.  But you just cannot give who I reckon being the best team in the comp right now a two goal-plus head start.  That is sheer lunacy.  Smart money has come in on the Dogs ML at $2.75 and $2.50.  I do not fancy the SU win, though it could happen.  With the public on the Geelong line, a Dogs cover kills both the public and sharps.

You just cannot expect the Dogs not to be competitive in this match.  A 12.5-point head start allows for a competitive loss.  Geelong has played no one in the past month and has amped up their fearsomeness going into this match.  The only way I can see this losing is if the Dogs are down by single-digits with 27+ gone in the 4th Term and the Cats get a goal or two late off of sloppy, desperate play by the Dogs to get back in front, e.g. a 4-point lead turns into 16.

The key to this match will be the 3rd Quarter.  This quarter is by far Geelong's dominant quarter where their strength and stamina mulch down the opposition.  And it just so happens that the Dogs play the worst...............yep, you've guessed it, in the 3rd Term. 

If the Dogs can come out competitive after the Big Break, I'll have full faith and confidence that this one goes down to the wire.

BULLDOGS +12.5

Thanks mate.  Same to you. 

True, lack of depth is where you can nitpick the Hawks when looking for weaknesses.  However, the withdrawal of Crawford is exactly why the timely inclusion of Bateman is MASSIVE.  If he is fully fit, and there is some suspicion that he is not, I expect CB to have a great game this round and pick up where he left off before injury.

CB, Buddy, JR, and Rioli in the mids will give St. Kilda shitfits if they fire.  The midfield is where this game will be won or lost, as most AFL games are, but this match none the more so as the mismatch is glaring.

Here's hoping my Swans decide that they are not playing the Magpies or Hawks this round and lock down Fev and Co. and get a win at the TD.  Carlton is up for this game and that scares me.  Swans have even mentioned the fact that they will need to be ready for the intensity they expect the Blues to come out with right away.  Hopefully they do.  And as a side note, I wouldn't mind seeing Hally back in this round.  I have no idea what is happening to him personally and what the team is having him work through, but if this guy is a professional, and I suspect that he is, this is exactly the spot we would need his inclusion.

With Davis injured, I cannot see the Swans lifting as they did when Hall was out earlier in the year through the Staker suspension.

Yeah that Blues/Swans game certainly one worth investigating beyond first thoughts.  I have been thinking the Blues with the points but to be honest think the Swans will be too experienced to lose the game, therefore 10.5 or so points probably not enough to want to cover when expecting to lose outright.

And so, after watching my Swans beat down the Blues by 80+...













...I will be looking forward to the last match of the round.  For some reason, although the Cats/Dogs should be a ripper, along with the Blues/Swans, I feel that you will be missing out if you don't give the Melbourne/Fremantle match a lookie.

I think this match is going to be a great one if you like competitive football.  Fremantle are clear favorites and have found some form in their recent games.  They are also the best two-win team I have ever seen.  Not being disparaging here, but rather throwing a compliment.  The Demons, on the other hand, have played much better football after Neitz left, RR was ruled out, and most of them resigned themselves to the fact that they won't be playing finals football, but rather for respectability.  The way they stayed competitive late in the game against the Bulldogs last round was good to see.

That being said, Melbourne is winless at Subiaco in six tries.  However, statistically they match up well against the inconsistent Dockers.  I think if the Dees come out hot they can really unnerve them.  The Dockers are apt to collapse at any time and in enough patches to keep the Dees in this one.

Both teams will have this match earmarked as a winner, the Dockers because they can't go down at home to the Dees and the Dees because this is a definite game they can win and show definite improvement by doing so.

I've tipped the Dockers as winners in my tipping comp but will gladly take the points and the Dees with $$$ on the line.  Much like the Bulldogs this round, I don't expect them to win, but be competitive enough to cover the line.

MELBOURNE +16.5

Thanks guys.

Cats/Dogs should be a corker.  Can't wait for the match to start! 

Money still coming in on Cats and Freo.  Lines have begun to stretch.

Five hours till Cats and Dogs, Meow and Arf!

Whoohoooo!!!

Clarkson expects the Saints to take a much more attacking approach to tonight's match at the Telstra Dome.

"I reckon St Kilda have played their best footy when they've tried to run and carry the ball in recent weeks so the St Kilda side have got some talented players and it'll be another good test for us," he said.

That run and carry has earned the Saints three consecutive victories over the past month and will be tested against the third-placed Hawks, whose own running brigade has been bolstered by the return of Chance Bateman to the side from a corked quad he received in round 12 against Adelaide. For St Kilda, tonight's match is an opportunity to prove its mettle against a higher ranked opponent, the Saints' football operations manager Matthew Drain said yesterday.

"Let's face it we're playing one of the premiership favourites, and outside of round one when we beat Sydney, we haven't beaten anyone who's currently in the top eight," Drain said.

However, the Saints have shown good form against the Hawks in recent years, winning four of their past five matches, Drain added, so he expected his side to challenge Hawthorn tonight.

"Both teams match up pretty well as we've seen from the contests over the last two or three years, so it's a good contest in that regard," he said.

Best of luck HOH, I'm going with Cats, Swans, and Hawks minus the points. Hope you have an in-game thread going for the doggies and cats game.

GL hans.  No in-game for the Cats/Dogs since I will be in the living room watching it.

Great first quarter of football.  All tied up at 3.3.  Johnno down for the Dogs, but should return.  Could be a huge deal if he doesn't come back.

Hans, I might have a play-by-play going for the Hawks' game later on.

47-All at the Half.

Awesome.