HoH AFL Round 5

Well, I sat out the St. Kilda/Bombers match and I am glad I did as I was leaning on the Bombers to pip that one with the head-start. 

Onto Saturday's matches:

Geelong/Sydney

I really think this is a trap line for punters this week.  The books have been getting murdered by Cats supporters all season long, except on that ridiculous Dees line which either you backed the Dees, laid off, or backed the Cats with a small amount.  Other than that game, punters have been using Geelong as a weekly ATM machine to withdrawal profits.  I fully expected this line to com eout a little below 20, about 18-ish or so.  Setting in at 25.5, along with a very insulting to the Swans ML of 1.18 for the Cats, gets me to think that the books are plotting their revenge here.

To boot, Geelong let the Dees stay close and didn't decimate the struggling, off-form Saints, even though the Saints fade hard in the latter stages of the game.  To say that Sydney can't hang as well as Melbourne would be an insult, especially since the Swans play well at Skilled.  Plus, this is the match of the season so far for the Swans and they will come out like champions, not to mention to have people mention something other than Barry Hall when the Swans come up in conversations.  Geelong has not been tested this season like they will be tonight.

I just think you can't give Sydney 25.5 any match of any round, even against Geelong.

I am officially laying off this match as I want to watch it as a fan without any money on a side.  If I had to choose, without a doubt, I'd back the Swans here with the head-start.

Added notes on the Geelong/Sydney match.

Geelong and Sydney are very similar in marks for.  Sydney, IMO, is the best defense in the League and leads it in marks against (Geelong is 5th).  Sydney also beats Geelong is holding the opposition's number of kicks, disposals, and handballs.  The Swans are the only team to hold the enemy to under 100 handballs a game and are the only team allowing disposals in the 200's as opposed to 300's for everyone else.

Geelong is also distinctly average in allowing marks inside their 50, placing 8th in the League.  Sydney is 2nd only behind Hawthorn.

Adelaide/Fremantle

The Crows have been my favorite wagering team this season as they are flying under everyone's radar.  Besides them handing me one of my only two AFL losses this season in Round One versus the equally surprising Bulldogs, they have been very kind.  Coming up this round against a disappointing Fremantle side will present a great chance to notch another victory.

Adelaide leads Fremantle in just about every stat imaginable except Behinds and a slightly worse kicks to handballs ratio.  Adelaide is 6th allowing marks inside their 50 while Fremantle is 11th.  Fremantle is 12th in committing errors while Adelaide is a well-kept 2nd best...shockingly to West Coast.  Because Adelaide overwhelming the Dockers in kicks, marks, handballs, and disposals, I look for Docker error to be quickly capitalized on by the Crows, possibly turning into points.

The play is: Adelaide -18.5

nice info headover heart how do ya know so much about footy n have it as your fav sport to cap are u from australia and now living in michigan?

OK, supposedly Tadgh Kennelly is out for the Swannies.

This is definitely a no play now.  Big loss for the Swans if true.

i was wondering the same thing i mean i live in new york state follow the AFL but don't know nearly as much as you do

Thank you guys.  Very kind words. 

I am originally from Michigan, no Australian in me.  One of my best mates is from Wyong though.  I feel in love with AFL after seeing a match on television in elementary school and haven't forgotten it since.  It is also a sport I feel really comfortable with on a personal level.  I was a goalkeeper in college on my college's team, would always play the position of safety in American football games, and was offered a scholarship at Eastern Michigan University to be their football team's punter.  I had/have soft hands and a big boot.  When I saw an Ozzie Rules game and these guys flying up to gracefully catch the ball and then kick it downfield 40-50 metres..........I was astonished!    It's a perfect game for a safety/punter!  HAHAHA!

Been in love with it ever since and understand the players side of it because those two aspects hit home with me.  Besides, it's one hell of a sport regardless and is really a shame it hasn't caught on worldwide.

Thanks again guys and I will say it again...this forum is the best on this website.  I wouldn't nearly be as smart or as good a punter if it wasn't for all the regulars on here.  Wonderful. 

tozer...I think you are talking about Nick Davis for the Swans.  Exciting prospect to say the least!

25-2 start for the Cats.  Abysmal. 

im on magpies and dockers

also add in a little Cronulla Sharks in NRL and i have myself 3 games to enjoy

good luck head over heart

Brisbane/Hawthorn

In the most beguiling match of the round, the underachieving Lions meet the high-flying Hawks.  (on my, was that an unintentional pun there?)  Hawthorn sits atop the ladder with Brisbane at 8th position.....one behind Richmond. 

First off, a lot is being made of the history between these two teams.  Brisbane has owned the Hawks in previous years.  Four of the last five have gone the Lions way, though the most recent was 115-91 Hawthorn triumph.  I will completely disregard the history of these two teams based on the current form and situation that they find themselves in.  Brisbane, in years past, was a very solid side.  Hawthorn, on the other hand, was fodder with your mates to see just how many goals they could get steamed by.

Not anymore.  Not this season.

Hawthorn ranks 4th in marks with the Lions at dead last, and I mean dead last, in 16th.  They are 15 marks-a-game behind the Power in 15th.  This is a very telling stat.  Brisbane is much better at limiting marks in a respectable 4th position....but the Hawks still have their number here in 2nd.  BUT!  Let's break this number down to a boil.  Whilst both team seems very similar and close to equal in marks against, take a whiff at this.  Hawthorn is 1st in the League at stopping teams from marking inside the 50.  Where is Brisbane?  Surely close by, right?  No, in 13th only ahead of the Dees, Dons, and Tigers.  WOW!    This tells us that while Brisbane does well in most places on the pitch, their backline defense is in shambles and will fall prey to any side who has offensive prowess. But don't let me alone try to convince you of this!
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Brisbane Lions coach Leigh Matthews says his players need to take greater possession of the ball when they host Hawthorn at the Gabba tonight.

He says his side's miraculous turn around last week against Port Adelaide was due to their midfield dominance in the second half.

Matthews says the Hawks' potent forward line is not the only concern.

"The game's still about winning the footy," he said.

"If Hawthorn win the footy and all we're doing is chasing them then there's nothing we'll be able to do to stop them probably scoring."

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One more stat for the soup......it looks like Brisbane will have to play a more expansive game to overcome those differences.  However, Hawthorn is 2nd best in the League at limiting its opposition in kicks.  Brisbane is dead last, absolute the bottom, 5 kicks a game behind a sorry Dees team, in pushing the football by the foot.

All-in-all, I do know many people fancy the Lions chances this weekend and I was very willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.  However, if the stat sheets (and Matthews!) do not lie, then we have a comfortable Hawthorn win on our hands.  As mentioned before, this round is either going to be a great walkover or a slaughter on our accounts.  Either all is as it seems or we will be playing the fool at last siren's end.

I will wait to see the result of the Adelaide/Fremantle match before officially backing a side here.  Hawthorn will be the tip at -6.5 if at all.

Good luck guys and let's get it done this round!

Thank you wjeremy97.  I look forward to hearing your thoughts about future matches! 

Please showme, speak not too soon!!! 

50-43 at Half to the Cats.

Nice recovery by the Swans.

This one is far from over!

Showme, what does Sportsbook have as the Halftime line on this one?  Swans +25.5?

https://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/afl/fanforce/index.php/heraldsun/comments/
softly_softly_and_maybe_we_can_skin_a_cat

dockers suck shit today

tozer, that is music to my ears, but I never speak too soon.

CAAAAAAAAAARN THE SWANS!!!!!!!!!   

Let's go Swans!  It's not over yet!!!   

Good effort Swans.  You'll be back for sure! 

Geelong goes on a tear last 10 minutes to boffo the spread for Sydney supporters.

Good thing I stayed off.  Expected something uneven like this.

Swans did well, especially without Kennelly and coming back from a huge hole.