Hendy's AFL Round 3

Question

Saints v Pies @ DomeAfter the Pies effort against the Dees, I&#x27;m not sure why they didn&#x27;t open at 4 goals but 14.5 (moved to 15.5) is enough to make me lean to the Saints. The Pies play to their opposition so I don&#x27;t often like to bet on these games. Presti on Nick should limit his production. I see the Saints winning by 4 goals but there are less risky options.WCE @ Roos (Dome)Even money? Has anyone seen the Roos play lately? Damn! Only a 0-2 interstate team could come close to even money. WCE deserved to lose by dropping big Q. I see this a a competitive match that should go to the eGirls by about 15 points.Brissy @ PortShould be a good game. Brissy are leaving it to 4Q heroics so I think this is an acid test. Brissy should win because Port will struggle to score.Richmond @ Sydney40 points just appears to be too many but no way should anyone in the world put money on Richmond.Blues and Bummers @ MCGThe only way the Bummer score is on the rebound. The Blues will be to good.Adelaide @ Melbourne  (MCG)If this was at the Dome, I&#x27;d play the Cows even after they screwed me over the last two weeks. At the G, leave it alone.Dogs and Hawks @ DomeIf it was at the G, I would think the dawks... but not at the dome.Cats @ FreoCats are a better side but Freo are a confident team. They&#x27;ll be happy with a good game and with Mooney not up front, it could throw out their structure. Cats will win by not by much.In order of confidence, I would say Blues, WCEBrissy... but I just went 0-4 on the NBA today... hope Rod&#x27;s Under comes in so I&#x27;m 1-4.

Hendy · Answer

Saints v Pies @ DomeAfter the Pies effort against the Dees, I&#x27;m not sure why they didn&#x27;t open at 4 goals but 14.5 (moved to 15.5) is enough to make me lean to the Saints. The Pies play to their opposition so I don&#x27;t often like to bet on these games. Presti on Nick should limit his production. I see the Saints winning by 4 goals but there are less risky options.WCE @ Roos (Dome)Even money? Has anyone seen the Roos play lately? Damn! Only a 0-2 interstate team could come close to even money. WCE deserved to lose by dropping big Q. I see this a a competitive match that should go to the eGirls by about 15 points.Brissy @ PortShould be a good game. Brissy are leaving it to 4Q heroics so I think this is an acid test. Brissy should win because Port will struggle to score.Richmond @ Sydney40 points just appears to be too many but no way should anyone in the world put money on Richmond.Blues and Bummers @ MCGThe only way the Bummer score is on the rebound. The Blues will be to good.Adelaide @ Melbourne  (MCG)If this was at the Dome, I&#x27;d play the Cows even after they screwed me over the last two weeks. At the G, leave it alone.Dogs and Hawks @ DomeIf it was at the G, I would think the dawks... but not at the dome.Cats @ FreoCats are a better side but Freo are a confident team. They&#x27;ll be happy with a good game and with Mooney not up front, it could throw out their structure. Cats will win by not by much.In order of confidence, I would say Blues, WCEBrissy... but I just went 0-4 on the NBA today... hope Rod&#x27;s Under comes in so I&#x27;m 1-4.

OzFactor · Answer

Dogs look like a solid bet over the Hawks, Hawks with a short turnaround will hurt em

Hendy · Answer

Agreed but the Doggies didn&#x27;t look too good against Richmond. It could have been the quality of the opposition dragging them down but it&#x27;s still a question mark.Teams out... The Pies will struggle tonight. Sam Fisher In and we lose Heath and Jack Anthony. Macaffer at FF? Considering Jolly and Fraser have given the pies nothing up forward, it&#x27;s a bad move to drop Jack... and Heath is the mop up guy who could keep a forward honest. I think the line should be Saints -30The Blues should be much -30 also... the Bummers lose their key mids... Outs - Mark McVeigh (infection), Angus Monfries (quad), Ben Howlett, Brent &#xD;&#xA;Prismall, Alwyn Davey... WTF? Dropping Howlett, Prismall and Davey?Disappointed that I can&#x27;t find any player bets for tonight but the only one that stands out is the Saints to win. I got in early and got -15.5 but I&#x27;m going to lay another one at 19.5.For the WCE, Hansen had a good game for the Swans. He dominates in the WAFL and breaks down in the AFL. At worst, he&#x27;ll keep a key defender honest... but he&#x27;s a good pinch hitter. It&#x27;s a little more even now than I expected.Brissy are going to have one key forward open because they only have Carlisle as a good key back. JBrown on Chad? Chad isn&#x27;t defensive, not strong enough and just isn&#x27;t the same player he was. Brissy on paper look the part but they are playing lazy ball until the last quarter. (Celtics?)So far...Saints -19.5Blues -12.5

Hendy · Answer

Wow... Saints Pies O177.5... gone big on it. Losing this would hurt almost as much as my 0-6 NBA record in the last 2 days.

jdoobiz · Answer

GL hendy

Hendy · Answer

Cheers jdoobiz

After 0-6 on the NBA, I think it's time to wait until the finals. Weird shit is happening there.

The over should be good. The Saints should run away and the Pies will kick their allocation. I see this going to 195-215

OzFactor · Answer

on the over

rod_steel · Answer

Saints defense last week was pretty nasty. Hope the over hits for you

Hendy · Answer

Mmm... that first quarter isn&#x27;t helping. I thought they were just playing against a poor team helping their defense.I haven&#x27;t had a good couple of days.I still think there is a good chance but after the 1st, looks like a total of about 150... hope I&#x27;m wrong.

Hendy · Answer

2.2 to 1.4... limited opportunities and poor kicking 24 points... need 52 points a quarter which for most games is about right... but not this one. FARK!

Bobbys_pregame · Answer

magpies are a weird bunchthey playing really well against one of the best teams tonight. Would never have thought they&#x27;d be leading after their performance last week

Bobbys_pregame · Answer

good thing though is that the game is right now on an edge, but one senses the saints are about to turn the gears on and go nuts in the last minutes of this quarter then take over in the 2nd half so the scoring should become far more free flowing

rod_steel · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Yep seems to be the Pies MO. Play well against top 4 opposition but when it comes to the easy beats they invariably play down to their level.&#xD;&#xA;No Riewoldt for the second half for the Saints, think they are going to struggle to score enough points to win tonight

Bobbys_pregame · Answer

nahh the saints have a better midfield and they have been in this scenario before in the past I reckon they win it still.

rod_steel · Answer

BOL with the Saints pregame, think I will steer clear. Like tomorrow&#x27;s card better

Hendy · Answer

I should never bet against the Pies... the gods are teach me lessons.

I had the Saints and the Over. Both are unlikely... that would mean I've gone 0-6 in the NBA and 0-2 in the AFL. Fark Fark FARK!

Hendy · Answer

4-14 at the DOME...not to count the number of out of bounds... just ridiculous. I'm OK with limited scoring shots but kicking like that... and it's still close. WTF?

Saints going down like flies... Volt and not Sam Fisher out... but a couple more carrying niggles like McQualter

Jive_Turkey · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Hendy] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Saints going down like flies... Volt and not Sam Fisher out... but a couple more carrying niggles like McQualter&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;and yet they&#x27;re still doing a number on the gutless pies

Jive_Turkey · Answer

collingwood won&#x27;t kick a single goal for the entire second half

Hendy · Answer

Farkin&#x27; Pies.At least I went 1-1.Pies only 9 points (no goals) in the second half. What a fucking joke.

NbaCrazed · Answer

i hear what you are saying about NBA... very fishy results.. linemakers have covered every second half and the calls by some refs is bs**.. not sure if you saw MIA game, but PHI had them - step in ref.. also today's game were a joke..

i am 0-10 last 3 days on NBA (previous 10 days, 18-4)

good call on saints line.. pies blew this one tonight..

hopefully MIL will start losing again so I can make some $$

Bobbys_pregame · Answer

Collingwood did not blow this game tonight, they simply are not good enough and have been one of the most overrated teams in the past decade. Take a look at Swan, Pendlebury, Davis and O&#x27;bree they rant on about this team in the media and I have seen enough football over the years to know that Collingwood will not win another flag for 20&#x2B; years unfortunately. Good win by the Saints but they shouldn&#x27;t get too carried away as they were playing a side that should have lost to the bottom 2 side last week and produced another shit performance tonight.

NbaCrazed · Answer

i think they blew a good chance since riewolt went down.. i know shaw was missing, but some no name saint players beat them bad last night

come on.. we all know saints are the most overrated team this past decade.. every year they talk about winning a flag and yet another year goes by.. this is fact my friend..

collingwood always seem to make top 8 and make the semi's (ie win when it counts)

i assume you are a saints fan with your biased views...

Bobbys_pregame · Answer

NBA nahh mate I&#x27;m a one-eyed Geelong supporter &#xD;&#xA;Saints were down the bottom of the ladder for many years from 2000 right upto 2003 and even from 03 right upto 06 they weren&#x27;t talked about until they began appearing in consecutive preliminary finals 07,08. People forget that St Kilda along with Geelong were bottom of the ladder early this decade unexpected as that may sound. Yes I agree that the Saints do get alot of attention especially in recent years but I still don&#x27;t understand where the hype for Collingwood comes from And you believe they make the top 8 etc when it counts?&#xD;&#xA;2000 - 15th, 2001 - 9th, 2002 - 4th, 2003 - 2nd, 2004 - 13th, 2005 - 15th, 2006 - 5th, 2007 - 6th, 2008 - 8th, 2009 - 4th and in that finals series they were premiership favourites going in. So as you can clearly see the stats speak for themselves

Hendy · Answer

I agree with NbaCrazed. Pies blew the game with their kicking... especially in front of goal. 4.17 at the dome is disgraceful. 21 shots at goal should have meant 12.9 at least. Looking at the trends of the other games, goals should be about 60%.

If they weren't against Brissy, they probably would have won a GF 2002 or 2003.

Pies are an easy target after a loss like that. Bashers weren't so loud after Round 1.

Hendy's AFL Round 3

Hot Forum Topics