Hendy's AFL Round 19

Cats and Roos

High scoring Roos and a Cats team without JPod so may focus on defense (but it's at the dome so will probably still go over)...Geelong could still drop a game or two and be top 4. I'm going to stay away.

Dees and Giants

Giants have their last chance to win a game this season (I can't see them beating the Suns). This however may be the deal breaker if Neil Craig can't get a win. Nobody likes to end the season with 0 wins... Sheeds would have planned this a long way out and the kids are in good form. I was hoping for better odds but gotta go with the Giants.

Hawks and Richmond

Why are Richmond such low odds? What have they shown against quality sides? Hawks and Sydney are on par... I expect another solid loss by Richmond.

WCE and GC

It is in Perth. WCE to rebound at home. They will not give up on home games... only interstate games.

Carlton and Freo

Still no Pav or McPharlin but the pest should be back. I like Freo but can't back 'em.

Brissy and Saints

Who cares? I think there is value for the Saints but I have no trust in either team.

Doggies and Swans

Only 40 points? Swans are a very different team to an under strength WCE. Sydney will teach them a lesson but the doggies are good with covering when the game result is decided.

Cows and Port

Showdown is typically close. Cows are getting better form and Port is getting tired. No clear winner except the Adelaide police because all the ferals will be watching the footy so the coppers can relax for a couple of hours.

Pies and Bombers

Sure the bombers got dismantled by the Dawks but the Pies were down to the Giants at the half. I don't know why the Pies are favorites here. The Bombers always take such pride in beating the Pies... and Jobe should be back.

The supplement fallout should be after the pies game... because too many people wants to see the Pies lose. I predict points, picks and cash for the team and some players penalty, probably weak like cash. Weeks off for most of the team would hurt the AFL.

The value has gone from the Giants. The winless team is 5 point fav.

Hawks, Carlton and Swans are the best value but I think this weekend will be quiet for me. I might play a couple of totals or fantasy but no lines really stand out.

Who is next with the crazy?

I'm going to resist for the early games. The Hawks should roll but I could also see the Tigers want to put up a fight. I do think the Giants have more to play for but losing your sponsor is pretty big motivation to turn things around.

Going to play WCE GC U187.5 small

I can see the game being tight. It should be nice weather so that's not a factor. I just see a total sitting about 170.

In the evening, I'm going against what I said above with Freo.

Why would I go against the above... a couple of reasons. Primarily Carlton need to win this to get that last finals spot. With the Roos winning, there is more competition for the spot... oh, and when I say LAST spot, I mean the one that Essenscum would have been in but will not because of the drug issues.

Freo are playing away

Freo will win their last 4 games (2 home games plus Melb & StK)

Freo will get Pav back next week

Freo will have trouble matching up on the small forwards if they get going

Carlton had a decent win last week

 

Saints and Lions game is a shocker and I'll keep away.

Crazy today is presented by the colours brown and yellow and the letter H.

I hope Bock isn't going to play forward... that would hurt my under.

I should have gone with the first instinct and taken the winless team.

Carlton suck 

Unposted, I added the Pies Bombers Under. It was Under 180. At half time, the total was 70. The total went over with 45 seconds to go (and there was even another goal afterward).

I can't take a trick and will take a break.